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2011 MLB Season

Discussion in 'Sports Board' started by Luke 217, Mar 31, 2011.

  1. Nom Chompsky

    Nom Chompsky
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    I don't like it when the Yankees face Miguel Cabrera (seriously, how awesome was his season??). Verlander is also obviously great, but CC is too, so I'll call that close to a wash. I think the Yankees SHOULD win, but the Tigers have the best pitcher and best hitter in the series, so who the hell knows?

    I'm sticking with what I said before the season though. NY over Milwaukee.
     
  2. shimmered

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    When he's ON he's really good.
    But defensively, he's not the greatest player. I know that, he's still a damn fine player. Just a little slower than he used to be. I'm glad we kept him.
     
  3. Elset

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    This year wasn't even one of his more productive seasons. Which is saying a lot, because it was a damn good year. He's really good. He's got nice career numbers against CC too, 9/16 with 2 homers. Not that 16 ab's is a lot.

    I like Detroit in the series (obviously) because their 1-2 in the rotation is as good as any. Since they acquired Doug Fister he's been the best pitcher, not Verlander. And Verlander is still amazing and a lock for Cy. Verlander had a 'bad' September in that he had games of 4 and 5 ER. And he was still 4-0, which speaks a bit to the potency of their lineup, especially since they acquired Delmon Young. The Tigers scored more runs in Sept than any other team I believe. Because of their starting pitching I like the Tigers as AL champs, but I fear the Phillies, because their pitching is even better.

    For what it's worth (not much) here are the records for the AL playoff teams against the others (or close to it, I tried to figure it out myself)
    DET 16-7 (.696)*
    NYY 19-14 (.576)
    TB 14-20 (.412)
    TEX 10-17 (.370)

    *most of these games were played before the Tigers acquired Fister, Young and Betemit
     
  4. MoreCowbell

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    So word on the street is that Terry Francona is meeting with Boston management today and will be out of a job by this afternoon.

    There's all sorts of vague reasons floating around (lack of leadership and cohesiveness, etc.) but I think they really just want a scapegoat. Terry Francona didn't pitch those games in September, and this seems myopic of them to cut the manager with the second highest winning percentage in the majors and 2 rings. They better have some damn good ideas for replacements.
     
  5. Elset

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    Some numbers
    That's good shit. If the series goes 5, you get Verlander twice and Fister once. Yeah, I like Detroit's chances.

    Re: Francona
    Jon Heyman of SI tweeted "red sox and francona are parting ways" around 9:30. Someone's gotta be a scapegoat, like you said.
     
  6. Nom Chompsky

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    Ugh, I keep forgetting the Rangers got Uehura and Adams. They're both really good.

    I wouldn't put too much stock in Doug Fister's recent numbers. He's pretty good, but I'd expect him to regress to his normal level rather than being super lights out. Honestly, I think the Yankees should be favored in games 1, 2, 4 and 5. I like Scherzer over Garcia though.


    Yankees over Tigers in 4.
    Rangers over Rays in 4.
    Phillies over Cards in 5.
    Brewers over Diamondbacks in 4.
    Yankees over Rangers in 6.
    Brewers over Phillies in 5.
    Yankees over Brewers in 4.
     
  7. Elset

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    You like Nova (presumably) over Verlander in game 5? That's silly. Leyland has said he will not pitch Verlander in game 4, and Girardi has said CC will pitch in game 4. Unless I missed something. I don't think ANYONE in the league can be considered a favorite over Verlander this year.

    Fister's season numbers have been phenomenal. His last 6 weeks have been super phenomenal. No reason to expect that won't continue. I don't know how he'll handle playoff pressure, but I assume it won't be an issue. His secondary numbers are comparable to Sabathia's. Better WHIP, ERA. Slightly higher BAA. Don't know about more fancy stats.
     
  8. Nom Chompsky

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    Ah, I keep forgetting that young master Verlander is a delicate flower and won't pitch on 3 days rest (this is my trash talking? Was that not clear? GO HIGHLANDERS, AND SO FORTH!).

    CC had a clearly better year than Fister, one that was only slightly worse than Verlander's. Fister spent half his season in Seattle, which is huge. CC spent it in NYS, which is tiny. Verlander is an easy Cy Young choice (better year in traditional metrics, better year in advanced metrics), but CC wasn't far behind.

    I'd take CC over Verlander just because I think the difference in their pitching is smaller than the difference in their offenses. I wouldn't take Nova over Verlander, though. Nova is an ok pitcher, but he's not in the same class as either of those guys. Not even sure he's in the same class as Fister, to be honest.

    I also like the Yankees bullpen, a lot. There's not a huge talent difference, so I wouldn't be surprised either way, but I'm rooting for the Yankees, and I think they're legitimate 55-45 favorites.

    Miggy is fat.

    EDIT: Advanced numbers are closer than I gave Doug credit for. CC pitched about 20 more innings, FWIW.

    FIP: CC 2.88, Fister 3.02
    xFIP: CC 3.02, Fister 3.62
    SIERA: CC 2.99, Fister 3.52
    K/BB: Fister 3.95, CC 3.72

    EDIT 2: From Riveraveblues

     
  9. Elset

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    Yankees have the better bullpen. I'll concede that much.

    Valverde has been a hell of a closer (awful outside of closing situations)* this year, but Rivera is Rivera, so there's that. If Alburquerque doesn't have any lingering effects from his concussion, and he can keep it together, he'll be a huge piece for the Tigers in the 7th inning. He's been really fun to watch this year. Alburquerqe->Benoit->Valverde looks pretty good if they can get to the late innings with a lead.

    *These splits are ridiculous. I don't even understand.
     
  10. Elset

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  11. Jimmy James

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    Speaking as the only Mariners fan on the board, I can tell you that Doug Fister is legit. I watched him pitch all last year and the first half of this year. The change between last year and this year is remarkable. Higher velocity, better control, etc. I was bummed when he got traded, but I'm glad he's in contention for a title. Plus, you can wear a Fister jersey and not have people look at you like you're some kind of pederast.
     
  12. MoreCowbell

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    Well, obviously because it was a historic collapse. If they missed it in more typical fashion, no one would care.

    But to be blunt....large numbers of people care about the Red Sox. To the average TV watcher, the Red Sox not making the playoffs is a bigger and more significant story than the Brewers making it. That comes with the market and popularity.

    Your question basically boils down to "Why do television stations that are trying to attract viewers allocate disproportionate amounts of coverage to teams with larger fan bases?" and thus answers itself.
     
  13. Nom Chompsky

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    Well, it was one of the most exciting and unexpected finishes in history. The Red Sox had gotten much better since last year, and were, roster-wise, the best team in the majors. For them to collapse in that particular way is kind of crazy.

    By the way, this is exactly why you shouldn't start 0-8.
     
  14. MoreCowbell

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    What's your point though? If you were ESPN, would you rather broadcast the Red Sox or the Royals? They have ad revenue to make, and the Red Sox and Yankees (and to a slightly lesser degree, Phillies and Cubs) have fan bases that are numerous and likely to tune in.
     
  15. shimmered

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    shit fuck piss goddamn fuck you motherfucker. GODDAMMIT.


    Tomorrow night better look better than tonight did, is all I'm sayin'.
     
  16. Elset

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    Nice defense, Detroit. Letting Jeter reach on a K. Not turning the double play. Not getting the out at home.
     
  17. zyron

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    I can't believe they didn't throw home. I hope this rain delay isn't that long.
     
  18. Elset

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    Yeah no kidding. Wonder how the pitching would shake up. I really hope the Tigers decide to play some defense. Two walks also not very good. JV's not sharp. Hopefully it's just the wet ball.
     
  19. Misanthropic

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    Considering that its been raining around here for the last 6 fucking months, these playoffs could go into April.

    Color me cynical.
     
  20. zyron

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    Especially since some people have been bitching that CC hasn't been the same since he pitched through two rain delays going for a perfect game about 10 starts ago.