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2012 NFL Season

Discussion in 'Sports Board' started by shegirl, Sep 5, 2012.

  1. Parker

    Parker
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    All of the above. I can't even process the game yesterday. Patriots definitely fell off their running game wagon that got them their wins in the first place. Just because they get Aaron back, they stop and lose their minds. Not pleased with the play calling. Fuck, Brady's arm can't be doing that every game. The Patriots lost two Superbowls because their running game vanished after the first quarter.
     
  2. Kampf Trinker

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    Actually, the Total QBR blows. From last season I wrote this as an example:

    Alright, it's official. The new QBR is worthless. I present exhibits A and B. Quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Donovan Mcnabb. Let's take a look at how they performed in week two.

    Rodgers:

    19/30 308 yards. 2 tds. 0 ints. 0 fumbles. 13 yards rushing. Sacked once.
    Clutch: Erased a 13 point deficit and threw the game sealing td near the end of the 4th quarter.
    QBR: 54.9

    McNabb

    18/30 228 yards. 0 tds. 0 ints. 0 fumbles. 12 yards rushing. Sacked twice.
    Clutch: Blew a 17 point lead.
    QBR: 58.3

    You tell me who had the better game. Call me a homer all you want, but this isn't even close. Plus 50 is supposed to be average right? So the average QB throws 10+ yards per attempt and never gets picked now? Uh huh.

    Also, Eli Manning had the 7th highest QBR last season according to this new system. He did not have the 7th best year. The guy led the league in interceptions and they put him above Rivers and Freeman who had phenomenal seasons.

    The new QBR is a complete joke. When it first came out I liked the idea, but was a little skeptical. After seeing and knowing more on how this retarded system evaluates QBs I refuse to take it seriously. It was a nice idea espn, it just didn't work. I feel bad for the people who wasted so much time on this.

    And I would have wrote the same thing if the stats for McNabb and Rodgers had been reversed. The total QBR is a really good idea, and would be much better than the standard passer rating if it did what it claimed to do, but the math behind it has been majorly fumbled. They should have waited an extra year or two, gave it more testing, and then released it. As it stands, it pretty much sucks.

    So what happened to Rodgers anyway? He only has the highest passer rating in the league and most touchdown passes. Will he ever be good again?
     
  3. shegirl

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    Finally they sync up. FINALLY. That was awesome.

    Although I will say watching the Seachickens squash NE, mainly Brady, was pretty good too. At some point Brady was sitting in his pouty seat, next to another player (I couldn't make out who it was). Brady was obviously bitching, about 2 seconds in the other guy got up and walked away when Brady was mid-bitch.

    I have to hand it to Seattle, so far their defense in just insane.

    When Pam interviewed Rodgers on the sideline after the game and asked what he had to say to all the naysayers he said, "Shhhh." End of interview.
     
  4. mya

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    I LOVED that moment. I'll admit that my allegience to Rodgers now is only because he is the QB for my FF team, but he won my heart with that one syllable.
     
  5. MoreCowbell

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    There are plenty of things to like about QBR. I'm not completely won over, but "completely sucks"? Is it just because it was mean to Aaron Rodgers on week (it noticeably said he was the best quarterback last season...), or do you have an argument for why it is worse than standard quarterback rating?

    Discussion of specifics in spoiler:

    For example, in addition to "clutch" (I am suspicious of almost any argument that includes clutchness but that's beside the point), it also takes into account:
    (1) whether a pass was incomplete or thrown away
    (2) whether a pass was poorly thrown or dropped
    (3) rushing attempts
    (4) sacks.
    These all seem like good things, none of which are in traditional quarterback rating.

    Ones that could be good or bad, depending on application:
    (1) The idea that some yards are more useful than others makes a lot of sense. Getting 5 yards on 3rd and 4 is certainly more useful than 8 on 4th and 10. That also seems like the sort of thing that is vulnerable to subjective disagreement in terms of appropriate evaluation, but it at least makes sense.
    (2) The fact that it tries to separate yards after the catch seems good, since a WR can make up a lot of yards with an effective scamper. However, it has the danger of hiding the fact that a good pass effectively maximizes expected YAC.
    (3) Quarterback pressure matters, but can it be accurately measured?
    (4) There's an argument to be had that current QB Rating has an excessive boner for "efficiency." It double counts completion percentage, and is pretty severe on interceptions and low completion percentage. I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other, but there's probably a good argument that this inappropriately biases it in favor of the Chad Pennington's of the world.

    I think it also makes sense that QBR looks at the season on a play by play basis, rather than in aggregate. To throw out a hypothetical example, just looking at TDs and INTS, if Quarterback A's line in three games is 2/1, 2/1, 2/1, and Quarterback B's is 0/2, 0/1, and 6/0, it is probably reasonable to say that Quarterback A performed better over that span.

    Downsides include:
    (1) It is a statistical black box (apparently over 10,000 lines of code and decades of expected-point data)
    (2) It has a murky clutch stat that I'm very suspicious of (it seems to reward players who win or come close in desperate scenarios over those who play consistently well)
    (3) It seems to produce the occasional surprise result. The same is true of QB Rating, though: did anyone watching the games really think Alex Smith had been the best quarterback all season heading into this week? Is there reason to think it does this more often than other metrics?

    I tend to think that the season-long lists pretty accurately ended up reflecting what I felt to be accurate. Things that make sense:
    (1) Rodgers, Brees, and Brady were definitely the three best, with a noticeable edge for Rodgers and Brees, last year.
    (1) Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kyle Orton were just north and south of average.
    (3) Mark Sanchez was very bad.
    (4) It suggests that Stafford piled up a lot of junk yards.

    The things that don't register in my mind are its suggestion that Dalton was below average, and that Hasselback was pretty good (noticeably better than Eli or Cam).
     
  6. Kampf Trinker

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    Yeah because my evaluation of those performances was totally packer fanhood bias, right? Mcnabb played better? Look, I get that the QBR rates everything up to how many hairs are coming out of the QB's anus, but that's only a good thing if it's balanced correctly. As you pointed out, some of those stats are very subjective, far too subjective for a stat in my opinion. One thing it seems to rate oddly is YAC, giving nearly all of it to the receiver.

    That link you gave sorted QBs by traditional passer rating. I think you got the wrong page. Anyway, this is where they shake up so far this year -

    <a class="postlink" href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr</a>

    So why do I like the old system better? Because of issues like this season where it puts Andrew Luck 7th, over at least a dozen QBs who are having a better season. There's too many anomalies in the numbers that can't be explained away. Maybe saying the Total QBR is useless is going too far. What I really feel about it is that it's an awesome idea, but needs to be reevaluated, tweaked, and then released again after it's been fixed and better tested.

    As for how they were rated by QBR last season, it wasn't way off by base by any means, but Vick, Palmer, and Hasselback stand out as a few that seem out of place in their ranking.
     
  7. Gator

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    Ray Lewis out for season with torn tricep and maybe done for his career.

    Too bad.
     
  8. gamecocks

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    Don't worry, he'll get his friends to tear their tricep for him and he'll roam free again. Or just go back to committing murders.
     
  9. Flat_Rate

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    Re: Re: 2012 NFL Season

    Yeah it is too bad that he has a hall of fame career and millions in the bank, as opposed to being in prison for murder, poor Ray. What a shame.
     
  10. MoreCowbell

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    LeDarius Webb is also out for the year.
     
  11. Clutch

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    I don't care enough to look into the numbers, but one of the knocks on Dalton is that he tends to struggle on 3rd down.
     
  12. RCGT

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    I don't understand how you can hate on Brady and love Rodgers, possibly the lispiest Birkenstockiest lesbian-trapped-in-a-man's-body to ever play quarterback in the NFL.
     
  13. Crown Royal

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    I assume youse guyz don't remember Cleveland Browns "star" quarterback Bernie Kozar. Jesus Christ, that guy would go down when hit with so much as a beam of light.
     
  14. Gator

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    And that is why Rivers is not elite.

    Elite QBs put their foot on your throat and kill.
     
  15. Gator

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    God I hope Norv went over and whispered in Rivers' ear: YOU GOTTA THROW THAT ONE AWAY, PHIL.

    Then again, Rivers did go out with a torn ACL and try to help his team win, not just pout on the sideline. = Asshole, but not a pussy.

    Ngata for the Ravens says he will play this week with a torn MCL. Hmm. Doesnt he know hes not going to be able to help his team? I wonder who uses their legs more, a DT or a QB...
     
  16. Gator

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    Id like the record to show I posted that right after the Stokely TD, not the last 2 INT by Rivers.

    Rivers is Jeff George. Big arm, not a leader or team player. The fact that Norv is his bitch has not helped his development.

    Great analogies. Rivers/Norv = Romo/anybody = Reid/McNabb = Reid/Vick = Cutler/Smith. Dont see any of them getting over that hump unlike Flacco & Ryan & Eli.
     
  17. trojanstf

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    Does anyone know how much Ray Lewis had to pay the media to make no mention of the murder accusations against him? It would be one thing if they never talked about him but all you hear is how great of a guy he is and what a good role model he is for kids.
     
  18. MoreCowbell

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    That NFL safety ad with Ray Lewis is looking kind of funny right now.
     
  19. Jimmy James

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    Over the hump? Flacco and Ryan haven't won shit. Please explain how Flacco and Ryan have gone over the hump.
     
  20. Gator

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    Sorry, I meant I could see those guys getting over the hump.

    Eli already has and Flacco has more playoff starts and wins than Rivers.