As of this morning, that is still the case. The reality is that American politics is currently undergoing what I would call a 'market correction.' That correction is being accomplished in two ways, and by two candidates - Trump and Sanders. Both of these candidates, through different means, are tapping into the anger that most Americans seem to have towards their government. I had previously mentioned I was wrong about a couple of things. One of them is that I did not think Americans were mad enough. I thought the market correction would come in 4 years. I was wrong, Americans are pissed. Anyway, the market correction is this - the entire spectrum of American politics has moved vastly to the right in the past 40 years. For instance, Obamacare is almost word for word the plan proposed by Bob Dole back in the mid 90's. Bob Dole was a Republican, for those of you whom don't know. It is also the plan Romney instituted in Massachusetts. What is entirely baffling to me is for a party that canonizes Reagan, Reagan couldn't get nominated by today. He's waaaaaaay too moderate (which scares the hell out of me as well, as he wasn't a moderate - but the point here is that the party has gone so far right that even a very right wing guy couldn't get the nomination). But what Trump is doing is essentially showing the Republican establishment how crazy the base has become. Look, I don't mean to just jump on Trump like everyone else, but the fact remains he's an absolutely terrible candidate. He has changed positions on things a number of times (even days apart, on tape, and he denies), his positions (including his 'tax plan') are fundamentally retarded and the ones that have been tried (his 'tax plan' has essentially been tried previously and utterly failed) previously have proven to be completely infeasible. The Republican party needed this guy to come along, because after it did it's autopsy after the loss in '12, they needed to retool. Unfortunately, for them, they did not at all. And now you have a caricature of a candidate that appeals to the 'base' with such vitriolic and frankly stupid ideas that it is forcing the party leadership to realize that the rhetoric they've been spewing for the last 40 years is out of touch with the general electorate. Sanders, on the other hand, is forcing the Democratic party further left. For a sense of how far to the right the whole spectrum has gone, if Reagan ran today, he'd probably be considered a moderate Democrat or maybe even 'a bit liberal' (which is mind boggling). Much of what Bern is proposing is right down the middle Democratic ideas from the 60's and 70's. Go ahead and research it, his spiel has been around for a very long time, but Democrats got pulled far to the right as the Republicans went even further right. In short, what is happening in this election is that the 'Reagan Years' (which actually started in 1978) are coming to a close. Even though Trump is using the same uber rhetoric, what it is showing the general electorate, is just how far right the base in the Republican primaries are (which means they'll lose in the general election) and almost acts as Satire. Seriously. Listen to Trump, his rhetoric is borderline insane. Sanders' rhetoric on the other hand is pulling Democrats back towards their historic tenets. BIAS Alert: My wife and I are both Registered Republicans, and neither one of us can find a nominee in this party that we'd vote for as the party in general has not been conservative in a very long time. The definition of conservative they appear to follow is one so chock full of crazy that it stretches the imagination how anyone the least bit educated could buy into, into the overwhelming face of evidence of how destructive this brand of 'conservatism' has been in this country.
National polls should be viewed as entertainment rather than something with any predictive/statistical merit. They're meaningless when there's only 7, maybe 8 states in contention and very little change anywhere else. Exit polls are the best at predicting outcomes, but it's nowhere near a science. Trump will lock up either Ohio or Florida with a Rubio or Kasich VP tap. Clinton will probably pick Tim Kaine for Virginia. I stated a few weeks back that I hate all the candidates, there's not a single one I want to cast a vote for. I don't know who's scarier: Trump supporters or Sanders supporters. Hopefully at this time next week that buffoon will be at a retirement home in Bumfuck, Vermont and out of the race. I don't want Trump as President, he's just a bad candidate. At least as of right now, I think he will win against Clinton. Election Day is a long way away though. Until then I'm sure we can count on fair media coverage from all sides.
Well lets be honest, they probably werent going to vote for Trump anyway. I think Kaine is Hillary's best pick. She might go for Jerry Brown, but it might be a waste given shes going to win California anyway. Elizabeth Warren would be a huge mistake on her part.
I don't know about that. Younger voters favor Sanders, and by a good margin. Even young black voters favor Sanders over Clinton. The only reason why Clinton won South Carolina so handily was because of older blacks that are firmly in her camp.
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism This is a pretty fascinating and somewhat scientific read on why someone like Trump is appealing to so many of us. It's a pretty interesting take on how political figures appeal to us, and why people suddenly think Trump is presidential material now in a time of great turmoil and change, rather than 2012 when he lost handily and quickly.
There is mighty fuckery afoot tonight. Besides Colorado's GOP nixing the republican voting: Complaints in Austin of cast votes being changed from Trump to Rubio. Valdosta, GA democratic voters were given republican ballots I have a feeling come morning, these won't be the only two instances.
Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner "A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election. Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula." Here's a link to his statistical model: http://primarymodel.com/
He is so clearly trying to get the VP slot. There is no other reason why he jumped on this bandwagon.
You can hate her fucking guts, but equating Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is lunacy. A Clinton presidency probably won't change much of the country at all. A Donald Trump presidency would leave is FUBAR.
I can't count out Sanders, not until more blue states vote. Most of these states that have now voted I expected the blathering butch-haired mannequin to win in.
Meh I think Trump would end up disappointing many as Obama did. Ride in and a change tagline only to find out there is only so much a president can accomplish alone.
And that is the reason why Trump is a viable candidate. There are a LOT of people unhappy with where this country is right now and Hillary was part of the administration that caused us to get to this point.
I'm not an ardent Hillary supporter by any means. I wish there were someone I could get jazzed about, but I can't. I'm not following the polls as closely as y'all, but I think she has a better shot at beating Trump than Bernie does though. I find it odd though to be criticizing Democrats for not being able to nominate someone who can easily beat Trump when Trump should have never gotten off the ground floor. His ascendancy has exposed some ugly shit about American politics. But since he is gaming a Republican electorate I think there should be some severe criticism of the party who built that electorate. Instead Republicans are jumping on the band wagon now. Though by the look on Chris Christie's face they seem to understand this is a lose/lose proposition for them.
Fascinating article, I'll vet it closely tomorrow, but it does, on its face, explain a lot. And folks, let's be somewhat serious. Stony Brook professor comes up with model? I'll vet that tomorrow as well. There is very little likelihood that Trump does what he's doing in the primary in the election. Let's not forget, at this point in the last cycle, Newt Gingrich and Santorum were both viable candidates. The reality is Trump appeals to primary voters in the R party. They are notoriously extreme. Look at it this way. Only 1 Republican has won the popular vote in a general election since 1992. Yes, you read that right. Clinton won 92, 96, Gore won popular in 00, then Bush in 04, Obama in 08 and 12. The Republican party has significant problems in that the primary usually produces a candidate that mainstream Republicans aren't particularly fond of, and the general electorate is even less fond of. As the article points out, the party that nominates candidates has become way more extreme over successive elections, and that will not play well in the general election. Plus Trump will have to go toe to toe with someone who actually knows what she's doing (whether you like her or not) and he's going to look foolish.
Yet, minority voters - especially African Americans - overwhelmingly support Hillary over Bernie. So you're basically saying minority voters are stupid.
It's interesting too. Why do minorities support Hillary? I really don't see what she will do to improve their lot; when I look at her platform I see a continuation of Bush/Obama. Bernie Sanders is looking to provide actual change for middle/working/underclass folks, though that isn't identity politics as it will benefit all in those situations, it will clearly be a benefit to minorities though. Maybe Bernie's rhetoric/policies are too inclusive for them? Maybe it's intolerance, they don't like Jewish people?
I can't find the reddit thread that had the guy wondering how stupid he thinks blacks are for voting for Clinton in S Carolina. It was a masterful piece of trolling.
Its funny that both parties consider any group of voters that are not white males as homogeneous voting blocs. The women vote, the black vote, the latino vote...