I try to remind myself this about Trump. I may be extremely embarrassed if he is elected president, but our system was created with checks and balances for a reason, and there is only so much damage he can do, and it can be reversed fairly quickly once he's out of office. The biggest hit will be to our foreign policy, but without the legislative branch behind him even there he can only do so much. From what I've read even a republican dominated legislative branch would be very obstructionist to a Trump presidency. To me the main theme of this election, and Obama's first election to an extent, is that the American people are very unhappy with our political system. This means they are rallying around outsiders like Trump and Sanders. I support Sanders mostly because I think he is the most serious about changing the way the system works. Trump may say he's an outsider, but he's also a narcissist who probably has no desire to change a system he has benefited from. I doubt the American public will get the change they desperately want, and the next for years is going to get even uglier politically. VI, did you get a chance to vet the Vox article of authoritarianism? I read it and found it very interesting, but didn't dig into how the research was done, and the raw numbers. That theory seems to line up with my perspective of the rise of Trump, but I'm always interested to hear counter arguments to things like that.
If Sanders was more moderate, he'd be a Jew-y version of Clinton. At least there's a difference between the candidates on the democratic side. My vote isn't going to matter by the time the primary rolls around in my state, but still. The entire Republican party platform is so fucked up that it makes me want this to happen. Having it co-opted by a bunch of fringe crazies and evangelical Christians ruined it. According to them, I'm a liberal because I believe you should treat people, regardless of race, gender or orientation, with the same dignity and respect you'd expect from other people. The sad irony is that the people who ostensibly spend their Sundays in a place of worship being told to treat people with compassion fail to do so.
If nothing else, I am excited about the level of involvement and interest in the political process this time around. Sure, Trump kinda seems like a crazy candidate, but you cannot ignore the fact that people are actually wanting him to be president. Why? There's no soundbite, forum-ready answer. It's complicated. Realistically, it's looking like our next President will either be the host of a reality show, or someone currently under investigation by the FBI. That's scary, but also kinda interesting. How did we get here? Why? What does this say about the political process and what it's becoming? I'm not sure -- I don't think anyone is -- but it will be interesting to watch.
Just a reminder, also up for election is The Senate. There are 34 seats up for reelection this year, 9 of which needed for the majority. Also, Congress chairs are in play. As in, all of them. This is a big deal not a whole lot of outlets have even begun to touch on thanks to the primary circus. Depending on how fickle the crowd is we could see another obstructed president (likely in my opinion), or we could see a super majority. Congress has an 11% approval rating right now. With the higher turnout of an election year, as opposed to mid-term, we could see a huge shake up.
Way back in this thread I mentioned that I think people are at a tipping point, where they've just had enough of the typical bullshit lies and corruption in politics, and THAT is why Bernie and Trump are doing as well as they are. They speak from their heart, and it's fucking REFRESHING. Watching Christie kill Rubio around his "25 second sound bite" was on target with that feeling. Watching Clinton measure every response she makes from the "what do I have to say to get elected" point of view, rather than actually just fucking speak about how you feel, is beyond frustrating. "I'll tell you when I get into office"... what the fuck kind of response is that? She is bought and paid for by Wall Street, and she's lying at every turn she makes. The only reason she's doing as well as she is now is because she's assuming some of Bernie's stances. But you go and listen to Sanders talk, in person, and regardless of what you think of his politics, or his plans, there is no denying that the guy is genuine, and it's contageous. You are seeing what you are voting for. That genuineness is what is winning people over, because regardless of his capabilities, the fucker will try his best, and you believe that. EVERYONE believes that. He's got an 85% approval rating in his home state... that speaks volumes. The guy has been on the correct side of so many issues for 30 years or more, and isn't just flip-flopping his opinion based on current polls. More than anything I think it's about getting the money out of politics... just about everyone is bought and paid for, except Bernie and Trump. I think Sanders will do what he thinks is best for the majority of the people, whereas I think Trump will do what is best for him. But at least they are two known commodities. The rest are two-faced liars who are pandering to voters to get into office. Jeb retiring from the race was a major milestone in politics, because that pretty well marks the end of the "you've got to be a rich white guy with political contacts to be president" era. And to see Sanders out-raise Clinton in February is hilarious... he's basically crowdfunding his campaign, and it's fucking awesome. Speak down all you like about the "stupid people" following him, but they are people just the same, and they have the same right to vote as everyone else, and they are voting, and supporting. Again, this is so incredibly fascinating to watch from up here in the Great White North, and I really can't wait to see how it plays out.
Just watched Romney's speech. I have never seen anything like this in my life. A known famous republican basically begging the American public to not vote for the candidate leading in the polls in their very own party.
The funny thing is, Romney's speech pretty much just sunk any hope the Republicans had of a presidential victory in November.
There's no way the convention goes smoothly. What happens if Trump isn't nominated despite clear wins in the primaries? Do his constituents vote R or stay home? Trump can't get on the ballot most states for 3rd party by that time. Do moderate republicans, of which there are many, stay home? This is fucking nuts. It is one thing for Democrats to come out against the frontrunner, but for the actual party bosses to do the same is nearly unprecedented. Who was the last to get so little support from the base? Ulysses Grant in fuckin' 1880? I think a lot of the party haven't spoken up yet because they're up for reelection too.
Barry Goldwater. I was reading that he had some really unpopular policies that alienated half his party. He opposed the civil rights act which at the time won him southern states. Because at that time, southern democrats were like Northern republicans. And the civil rights act was the start of the modern political parties we see today.
The idea that Trump is speaking from his heart is absolutely ludicrous, and is demonstrably, provably false. And it is this false belief that drives much of his popularity, because people just don't pay attention to what he says. People don't like him because he "speaks from his heart". They like him because he says outrageous things. I'll go ahead and assume that, being from Canada, you have neither the 40 year track record of listening to him that many of us here in the states do, or the full press coverage that we "enjoy". But Mr. Trump has been very visible and vocal in the media for decades, and has published more than a dozen books that contain statements reflecting his political views - and in many instances those views are completely different than what he is saying on the campaign trail, including regarding Planned parenthood, immigration and healthcare. The defining major issue Republicans have had with Obama, other than his place of birth, has been healthcare. Up until today Trump has been quoted directly as saying "everybody's got to be covered" and "the government's gonna pay for it." These are the two basic issues which the far right claim to be so disgusted with, to wit - no one should be able to make me buy insurance, and the government spends too much money already. Today he has stated that no person should be required to buy insurance. On Planned Parenthood: "Trump recently told CNN’s Chris Cuomo that he would “look at the good aspects” of Planned Parenthood before defunding the organization entirely — one week after he said he was willing to shut down the government in order to strip the women’s health organization of all federal funding" In this campaign alone he has changed his "heart" numerous times on many issues : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...donald-trump-has-changed-his-mind-since-june/ Now I'm not saying he is any worse than any other politician, but that's just the point - his supporters claim he is different, and he is absolutely not.
Looking back, I didn't mean "speaking from his heart" in his case... it's more like he's speaking without reservation, and doesn't give a shit. He's saying what he wants without it coming off as the measured, "don't piss anyone off" tone that most politicians adopt for fear of alienating one group or another. It's that blatant "politician speak" that people are getting more and more sick of, because it's blatantly fucking obvious that they're being fed a line. No politician with the aspiration to be elected would say, "I'm building a wall", but he did.
Me neither. As a political scientist, I thought my wad was shot in 2000, when the Electoral College had a different result from the popular vote. Those types of things happen maybe once in a lifetime. But this? Holy fucking shit. I can't figure out what the end game is here. Reading between the lines, here's the strategy as enunciated by Romney: Keep everyone in (and pay close attention, this is a subtextual slight at Cruz, because you'd think the 'best bet' would be to consolidate behind the number 2 guy, unfortunately, the establishment GOP hates Cruz just as much as Trump, so that won't work), block Trump from getting the outright number of delegates. Make no mistake, this is the GOP backing Rubio, that's who they want as the nominee. So now, they want everyone in to spread out the delegates and get to, wait for it, a brokered convention. Holy fuck, I just came. I have much more to think about, I'll post my thoughts later. I will say this (and this is prior to Trump's response which is due in 45 minutes) - if I were Trump, I'd be real tempted to come out and say 'Ok, guys, I hear you. Now I'm running as an Independent. See you guys in November.' And then walk off. That would unbelievable, but this election is so crazy, it feels like anything is possible (hey, when one candidate actually thought the Pyramids were for grain storage, one is a Democratic Socialist and not even a member of the party for which he is seeking the nomination, another one currently being investigated by the FBI, another one that was born in Canada, and yet is one of the most unlikeable human beings on the planet, and the favored son who is underperforming). If you scripted this election for a movie 4 years ago, it would be rejected on the grounds that it was science fiction.
I think he started off differently... because I think it was more of a media stunt than anything whereby he could say ludicrous, polar things about nuanced subjects in his typical brash nature, and not give a shit. I agree that once it started to look like he's actually got a shot, and maybe more of a shot, that he's started to tone down the obsolutes and leave some wriggle room so as not to totally alienate some people. But still, on any other politicians scale, he's still pretty well saying what he wants, and it's only with respect to his previous self from early on in the process that he's started to hedge a bit. Also, I think he might have a serious change of heart on some things. He probably made a surface, vocal judgement on some things based on a cursory, uneducated understanding of the subject, and then once he dug into it, he conceded that there might be more to it than he originally thought. I've seen him do that countless times over his career... and he's big enough to admit (usually) when he's wrong. But yeah, I agree... I think his handlers have gotten him to tone shit down a bit compared to when he started, but I still wouldn't consider it in the same vein as Clinton's pandering.
I'm thinking exactly the same thing. "I signed a pact in good faith, it's apparent y'all don't want me, so fuck y'all...I'm taking my votes and running independent. Good luck in 2020." ...and Trump gains even more supporters.
I see what you mean, and that makes more sense. But in my view, saying whatever pops into your head doesn't make you honest or fearless, it makes you a child. There is a reason intelligent, mature adults don't sound like Trump - if you spoke your mind like him, and reacted to criticism the way he does, you'd be jobless, living in a cardboard box under the freeway. As for the wall nonsense - no one would say it because its completely insane. http://www.nationalmemo.com/an-engineer-explains-why-trumps-wall-is-so-implausible/
A big part of "saying what you want" and his attitude is bullying... and there's no doubt that Trump is a bully. Most of the debates he's been in have shown that clearly.
And I guarantee you that the vast majority of Trump's supporters are taking him at his literal word - there will be a real, physical wall constructed between the U.S. and Mexico
I think what'll happen is it goes to a brokered convention, Rubio gets the GOP nod, Trump says fuck you guys and goes off as an independent which splits the Republican vote and Clinton takes it despite being under increased scrutiny by the FBI for the server thing.