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But Seriously...

Discussion in 'Permanent Threads' started by Juice, Jun 19, 2015.

  1. Misanthropic

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    Apparently shits getting real in Turkey. The last thing we need is another unstable government in that part of the world.
     
  2. Jimmy James

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    In the context of the hashtag, no. It's about raising the awareness of the systemic racism and abuse of the justice system and the societal indifference that happens whenever brutality happens.

    This is a link to a law professor's response to a student's email complaining about the professor wearing a #blacklivesmatter shirt in class.

    tl;dr: #blacklivesmatter is short for "Because of the brutalizing and killing of black people at the hands of the police and the indifference of society in general and the criminal justice system in particular, it is important that we say that black lives matter."

    You, me or any other group of people don't get to assign a meaning to a hashtag that isn't there. When people bring up black on black crime in the context of #blacklivesmatter, it looks to me that they're trying to say that if black people committed less crime, they'd be less likely to be killed by police. That sounds pretty victim-blamey to me.
     
  3. Angel_1756

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    CNN is reporting a military uprising. Jesus Christ.
     
  4. Juice

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    It might actually be a good thing. The military doesn't report to the President there and is likely rising up to reinstate secularism and remove the current leader, who is hellbent on creating a full blown dictatorship.
     
  5. Nettdata

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    Some interesting info being collated here: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/4t12h3/turkish_military_blocks_istanbul_bridges/d5drd4u


    EDIT: Hearing from Turkish friends that Youtube and social media is being blocked.

    EDIT 2: Tanks now on the streets

    EDIT 3: Apparently Erdogan is on holiday, which might explain the timing.

    EDIT 4: The Prime Minister, loyal to Erdogan, claims its an attempted coup by junior figures of the military. This seems extremely unlikely to me, as the military presence is very widespread and there isn't evidence of fighting. That means the military everywhere is all on the same side - likely the coup plotters. If the main leaders in the military were loyal to the government, there would be fighting between the different sides.

    EDIT 5: Turkish media is reporting that Turkish government leaders in Ankara has been detained. No-one knows where Erdogan is.

    EDIT 6. Turkish senior military now saying it has taken over the country. As I thought.

    EDIT 7: Every airport in Turkey is now under military control. All flights in and out of the country have been cancelled.

    EDIT 8: Rumours being circulated it could be connected to the Gulenist movement, which is a reformist Islamic movement associated with a charismatic leader based in the USA. I would take this with a grain of salt, as haven't seen any good sources for this and it's the sort of thing Gulen's political opponents might say to discredit the coup.

    EDIt 9: The Greek military has now been put on high alert, in case anything spills over.

    EDIT 10: Military stating that all Turkish foreign relations would remain the same, and the rule of law is a priority.

    EDIT 11: Erdogan's whereabouts still unknown. Last thought to be in Bodrum on vacation in the far south of the country.

    EDIT 12: One interesting feature of this is how it could affect the refugee crisis. A new military government will want acceptance from European neighbours, so could be keen to stem the flow of refugees without conditions to curry favour Germany etc. Just speculation.

    EDIT 13: Helicopter was shooting on govt buildings in Ankara. Link in comment below.

    EDIT 14: According to /u/Red_Dog1880

    the AKP (Erdogan's party) have had their headquarters surrounded by the military.

    EDIT 15: State television stations have been stormed by the military. Expect footage of generals reading out statements before too long.

    EDIT 16: The country's chief of military staff is one of the hostages being held at Turkey's military HQ.

    EDIT 17: Sounds like Erdogan has not yet been captured. His guards have supposedly taken him to Marmaris, another location on the Black Sea. It's possible this is a headfake to avoid capture however.

    EDIT 18: There is now a run at ATMs in the country, as the banks are likely to impose capital controls in the next 24 hours.

    EDIT 19: The President's office is still claiming the attempted coup is not by mainstream Turkey military, but a splinter group, and the government is still in control. This looks like absolute bluster. Clearly, military forces have grabbed major locations and there seems to be fighting between different military units. Just the military versus the police.

    EDIT 20: Erdogan to make a statement imminently. Sounds like the military's claim to be controlling the whole country is exagerration. They have Ankara and Istanbul, and key airports. Not clear if they have control elsewhere, but surely it is only a matter of time.

    EDIT 21: Police guarding the presidential palace, loyal to the government, have been disarmed.

    EDIT 22: It seems like the senior layer of the military have taken control, holding hostage the handful of very top leaders appointed by Erdogan. But be sure, this isn't a small faction as the government claims: it's a united military.

    EDIT 23: The US is in a difficult situation. They have troops in Turkey as part of NATO bases, but they're not allowed to operate in countries with illegitimate governments. Suspect they'll be removed in a few days.

    EDIT 24: Government buildings elsewhere in Turkey have been surrounded by the police (who are loyal to the government). This really shows how it's nonsense that there's a split in the military. If there was, there would be military forces protecting the government, but they're being forced to rely on the police instead.

    EDIT 25: Military leaders make announcement they have taken control on state TV. Curfew announced. Don't have video of it yet.

    EDIT 26: Turkish currency in freefall: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=TRY&to=USD&view=1D

    EDIT 27: Groups of civilians are cheering the military tanks in Istanbul. Istanbul tends to be heavily secular and opposed to Erdogan. Don't assume this is the feeling, the populace elsewhere will be less happy.

    EDIT 28: Military stating that a "peace council" has taken over. Rather Orwellian language!

    EDIT 29: Justice minister is trying to blame it on Gulen and foreign influence. Government still must believe they can maintain control. Clearly Ankara and Istanbul are lost, but they might be able to find loyal army units in South and East of country in coming days.

    EDIT 30: Rumours Erdogan has been arrested. Highly speculative and no good sources right now.

    EDIT 31: That TV broadcast for that small group of Turkish speakers outside Turkey! https://twitter.com/eagunes/status/754060456709554180?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    EDIT 32: Assad forces celebrating in Syria. They think a secular Turkish military government will be much more likely to support them versus the Islamist rebels.

    EDIT 33: There's a firefight at the police HQ in Ankara. Military just exploded a wall to storm the building.

    EDIT 34: NTV has just had a Facetime call from Erdogan, who has given a statement from an unknown location. The phone was held up to the camera so he could give his statement! Says they will overcome the uprising, and those responsible will face justice in courts. It doesn't sound like he's in control - likely he is in an office or hotel somewhere. Clearly had to go to a private TV station as the state TV has been taken over.

    EDIT 35: He says the military Chief of Staff has been held prisoner, so it's a parallel military structure, but things are not entirely clear. That's clearly bollocks. It's only a few officers loyal to Erdogan that have been captured.

    EDIT 36: Erdogan saying that he is returning to Ankara. He is urging his supporters to come out on the streets to support him. That's a sign he is really desperate.

    EDIT 37: There's a stand-off between police and the military in Istanbul, but no shooting and it seems calm between them. Military clearly feel there's no need to fight as they've already won.

    EDIT 38: Mayor of Ankara, a Erdogan ally, has also called for supporters to come on to the streets as "soldiers of Erdogan" to uphold the constitutional order. As I said, this is a last resort.

    EDIT 39: Blocks on social media are getting tighter. Military stopping people filming in public. State broadcaster now gone off air.

    EDIT 40: Apparently Erdogan is seeking asylum in Germany after being denied landing in Istanbul.

    EDIT 41: For those of you celebrating this as an opponent of Ergodan, please remember that under previous military governments in Turkey, hundreds of thousands of civilians went missing, likely murdered for all sorts of reasons, political and personal. Erdogan was a terrible authoritarian, but the military are far from saints.

    EDIT 42: Erdogan still in Marmaris according to sources supportive of him.

    EDIT 43: Erdogan now doing another Facetime call with NTV. Again, focusing on calling people to come out on to the public squares and airports. Looks like claims about him being denied landing and flying to Germany were unlikely.

    EDIT 44: Shootout at the Presidential Palace in Ankara. Likely to be military versus presidential guard. Remember: Erdogan is not in Ankara. Either he is still in Marmaris, or he has flown to somewhere after not being able to get back to Istanbul or Ankara. Former is more likely - looks like the same curtain as in previous call to TV stations.

    EDIT 45: US State Department saying a coup attempt is underway in Turkey. Thanks for that guys!

    EDIT 46: Explosion at another TV station in Ankara. Not clear which one...

    EDIT 47: Unofficial US military sources are confirming to US journalists Erdogan HAS asked for asylum in Germany

    EDIT 48: The police in several places are not resisting the military. If that's true, the government only has the presidential guard and private militias. There is absolutely no evidence there is any part of the military loyal to Erdogan other than a few top leaders already under internment.

    EDIT 49: Multiple large explosions in Ankara now reported. Not clear where. Likely at unspecified TV station and presidential palace.

    EDIT 50: Hearing claims Germany has rejected Erdogan's asylum and he's now seeking asylum in Iran. The latter seems extremely unlikely to me, given Erdogan and Iran are on opposite sides of the alliance system in the Middle East, so look at this claim with suspicion.

    EDIT 51: Massive queues at petrol stations all over the country, as people expect the country to run low on fuel.

    EDIT 52: President's office refusing to say where Erdogan is now.

    EDIT 53: Large crowds pouring out on the streets in various cities. Not clear who they support.

    EDIT 54: Ignore photos being circulated of extremely large demonstrations. These are from last year.

    EDIT 55: There are claims the military is backing down in some locations, but this sounds like complete bullshit to me.
     
  6. Nettdata

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  7. Popped Cherries

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    I won't bore you with the details, as you will probably hear about them ad nauseam from the news stations, but if this coup is successful, good for you Turkey. You just stopped your country from turning into another Middle Eastern shithole.
     
  8. toytoy88

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    Yeah, I fail to see a downside here. Erdogan is a dip shit and supposedly he's seeking asylum from Germany now.

    He's also urging people to go out in the street and fight the military. I'm sure that would work out well.
     
  9. Nettdata

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  10. bewildered

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    Turkey has had a coup almost every decade since the 1960s. From what I can tell, it is a pressure release valve to their corruption & religious fundamentalist leadership issue. The military is supposed to be/has historically been secular and is in place to keep an eye on where the democratic process has taken the elected government.
     
    #4630 bewildered, Jul 15, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2016
  11. toytoy88

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  12. Nettdata

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    I'm pretty sure that was due to some of the wording in various trade agreements and treaties and such... they had no choice but to prosecute because it was explicitly covered.

    No such clause for dictator-wannabes who are running from their coup.
     
  13. toytoy88

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    It's just kind of funny that NOW Merkle decides it's time to get tough on asylum seekers.

    Personally, I say send the fucker to Russia and let Putin deal with him. That would be fun.
     
  14. xrayvision

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    Looks like maybe the citizens are overtaking the military and suppressing the coup.

    But I cant tell. Lots and lots of people on the streets.
     
  15. Nettdata

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    Interesting chain of events:

    EDIT 73: Very little new news coming in. Situation is that military have control of both Istanbul and Ankara, but we don't know anything of other cities. Medium to large crowds forming in cities across the country, mostly in support of Erdogan. Currently there's very little conflict between these crowds and military lines. We don't know where Erdogan is.

    EDIT 74: 17 police officers killed by military helicopter attack on police headquarters in Ankara. Think this was an hour or so ago.

    EDIT 75: About 100-200 people marching through Istanbul airport terminal. Military have control of runways and control tower.

    EDIT 76: US has come out in support of the democratically elected government. Opposes coup.

    EDIT 77: Crowds in Istanbul getting angrier. They are surrounding military vehicles in some places. Military vehicles not reacting other than slowly driving away.

    EDIT 78: A F-16 has shot down a coup helicopter above Ankara. First sign of parts of the military loyal to Erdogan. Possible the air force are still loyal? However, that doesn't seem to chime with fighters flying over Ankara and Istanbul at the beginning of the coup when Erdogan was still reacting. Think it's more likely that air force is split.

    EDIT 79: Crowds on streets definitely mixed. Most are Erdogan-supporters but others are applauding troops.

    EDIT 80: Commander of Turkish Navy has announced that he is NOT backing the coup.

    EDIT 81: Central square in Ankara now has thousands of civilians there. However very calm, people just watching.

    EDIT 82: It's now been an hour since a pro-coup helicopter was shot down, but it hasn't been heard from since, despite several coup helicopters continuing to fly over the city.

    EDIT 83: A crowd of about 200 pro-Erdogan protesters now walking across Istanbul airport ramps and runways.

    EDIT 84: There's footage of about 30 soldiers being arrested by the police, but unclear which city this is in.

    EDIT 85: EU is making less strong statement than US: wants "respect for democratic institutions". Remember EU needs 28 countries to agree to make a strong statement, so won't happen tonight.

    EDIT 86: Leading Gulenist figures coming out against coup, but we haven't heard from Gulen himself.

    EDIT 87: Several military leaders have now come out against the coup. But haven't seen any military intervention against the coup forces other than that one helicopter being shot down.

    EDIT 88: Pentagon sources briefing they expect the coup to fail.

    EDIT 89: Seems like parts of the military were staying on the fence to see what would happen. Now they have come out to oppose coup.
     
  16. Nettdata

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    Not sure of the correctness of the information, but the majority seems to be corroborated by a few major news sources.
     
  17. toytoy88

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    This is a cluster fuck. I can understand why the US has to back the government of Turkey, but holy fuck. If the coup has failed, Turkey has just become completely unstable and with ISIS sitting right on their doorstep, chances are they're going to rush in and totally plunge the country into anarchy.

    No matter what, this is not going to end well.
     
  18. Kampf Trinker

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    The polls are still fairly volatile, but it appears Trump is closing the gap between him and Clinton. One of the more interesting trends is that there are some traditionally blue states that might flip, as well as red states Trump is struggling to hold onto. This article is kind of shit, with lots of allusions to things like dog whistling and Trump supporters being a homogeneous group of the uneducated white populace, and then the whole all these voters are misinformed nonsense. That aside, it touches on how much this election has blurred party lines. Particularly with voters drifting across the aisle on both sides.
    Of course, many of these are people who always voted Republican anyway, but it's curious to see how the media continues to break demographics down into specific platforms, or tries to make certain groups one issue voters. There's been a wide base along the spectrum for some time with people who voted one way, but only in a way loosely aligning with their beliefs rather towing stereotypical definitions of conservative and liberal. The shake up this election year has been primarily attributed to tribalism, and anger towards the establishment - and that is part of it, but it's also the fact that many voters only partially agreed with party politics to begin with. Trump is quite liberal on some issues, but he realizes calling these ideas a 'pejorative' like liberal will alienate some of his base so he's instead calling them pro-America or just claiming their conservative stances.

    The media is still helping Trump even when they're trying to do the opposite. The so called antisemitic tweet about Hillary recently is another example of attempted public outrage that's just feeding the beast and fitting into Trump's narrative of a dishonest media. Part of the reason he's gotten away with saying so much that's clearly wrong is because the media continues to report so disingenuously on him. However, he's been relatively silent since the primaries ended. Most of the (small) shift in polls is probably a result of the e-mail scandal, so maybe he's being more quiet since he didn't want to draw away from Hillary's bad press. The lack of spending [and whether he raises substantially less than Hillary or not, I can promise that the rumors of an unfunded or bankrupt campaign are bullshit] might be about letting Hillary take front stage before he goes on the attack. Spending now has much higher diminishing returns than when we move closer to the debates anyway.

    It's still very much up in the air, but I would predict Trump takes it. People are quite often confusing non-classical campaign strategies with incompetent ones. I'm not sure if his VP pick will help or hurt because I don't know much about Mike Pence, but he seems like an establishment vanilla conservative. Pence could be used to help shore up the furthest right segment of the voting base, or to stop the establishment from swinging at his nuts, but unless Pence is an exceptionally good speaker/debater I don't see it adding a whole lot to the campaign appeal.
     
  19. toytoy88

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    CNN Turkey just had coup soldiers walk into their studio and take the station off the air.
     
  20. toytoy88

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    I'm afraid this election is going to come down to whichever candidate is able to energize the most amount of voters that just vote a straight party ticket. Very few people like either candidate, so it's going to come down to the lesser of two evils, vote for your party of choice, or just stay at home.

    Or the country is going to go to shit and Obama is going to declare martial law before the elections, if you believe the tin foil hat crowd.