Pretty sure I've been giving you too much credit, so I'll back up. Do you think anyone runs for president knowing full well they don't have a chance? As in, do you think that is a thing that some people do? If you do, could you name someone (excluding the people I named last post)? Because if you don't, then I've definitely been giving you too much credit.
Ok, I think it's clear you aren't actually following this election very closely. Let's shelve this discussion for a couple weeks. I'll just toss out there that the polls have been all over the place. Trump has led multiple times, with the pendulum swaying on the side of Clinton, but not hanging there. Very recently she was ahead by 14 points. Of the two most recent general election polls one has a tie, and the other has Trump as +2, which frankly shocks even me given what has happened over the last ten days. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/ Also, with regards to the whole running but never having a chance narrative: Ronald Reagan. No one took him seriously almost up to the moment he won in a landslide. Edit: Trump also just took the lead in Ohio, one of the key swing states. I honestly didn't think the 3rd debate would matter. Maybe it does. Huh.
If you're trying to tell me that Vermin Supreme DOESN'T think he's going to win, well than, sir... you obviously don't know what you're talking about.
I voted already (absentee). Hillary. Because I am more comfortable with her drawbacks than Trumps. Even among billionaires, this guy is full of shit: 3 marriages, a half a dozen bankruptcies, a long list of lawsuits and bad deals....what is this guy supposed to be good at? Trump is like what a trailer trash GED holder thinks a billionaire is like: all bullying mogul, no compromise or humility. Cool for rap video but it's a fantasy. Clinton? First lady, senator, secretary of state. Did an admirable job, not great. My entire adult life I have watched this woman take shots from Republicans, from Ken Starr to Trey Gowdy. She has only gotten stronger. Her corruption is peanuts compared to what Bush and even Reagan did, and the Donald wont even release his tax returns or agree to put his holdings in escrow. He is like the town drunk saying he'd never do blow with hookers: he hasn't had the chance yet. His upside is what again?
Just to be clear, Trump is a total curve ball, and I don't think anyone voting for Clinton is necessarily making a mistake. - His scandals don't parallel Hillary, and his bankruptcy talk is just ridiculous. - An increasingly corrupt system that no longer designs legislation aimed at benefiting the American people. Trump stands against this and is more believable than Hillary. - The loss of manufacturing jobs and disastrous trade deals. We have been told for the last two decades that this is benefiting the American people. It clearly is not and no sane person could believe Hillary intends to do anything about it. - Trump has stood for Israel, a civilized society in the middle east we need to support. Clinton and the Obama administration have been half-hearted. - I don't know what the fuck Trump's plan for ISIS is, but Hillary's isn't believable. Especially when she knew foreign governments were funding ISIS and neither said, nor did anything about it, as well as taking money from said governments through the Clinton foundation. Trump is the upside here simply on Hillary's fuck ups. Trump says he is going to destroy and 'obliterate' ISIS, which suggests a direct attack. He also is against arming other local radicals. Hillary wants to arm the Kurds, which is going to fuck us over with Turkey who we need to support to ever succeed in the middle east over the coming decades. It looks like a quick in/out. Not a 'fix Syria and Iraq'. Just getting rid of a cancer. - Reforming the tax code to cut loopholes for the wealthiest Americans. Clinton has never addressed this issue meaningfully in her many years in politics, nor has the establishment although the dems have constantly said "cut taxes for the rich" and the republicans have said "close the loopholes for the rich and simplify the tax system". Those ideas aren't completely aligned, but if they were sincere something would have happened by now. - Attack the debt. This is going to tank our economy and it soared when Clinton was secretary as well as under Obama. - Wall street reform. We know Clinton has no interest in doing this. Trump is questionable here, but more believable. - Health care. The ACA is providing wider coverage, but most of the benefits are long term designed to go to corporations rather than American citizens. Trump's plan isn't great either though. More like less shitty. - Put pressure on our military allies to increase their spending. We are overpaying for the protection of so many nations it's hard to count. This has been one of Trump's more frequent talking points, and it is a relevant one given the enormous amount of money involved.
Honestly dude, Clinton is just seeing which way the wind is blowing and talking about how Putin is a baddy. The odds that she starts a nuclear war with Russia are almost nil.
The level of propaganda coming from the Clinton campaign (and the White House and mainstream media) against Russia and Putin in particular is not something I can shrug off as normal politics. And Hillary's been talking for the past week or so about instituting a no-fly zone over Syria. Well who's flying jets over Syria besides the US?
I don't know, dude. I find it difficult to believe that email server allegations are somehow worse than being taped saying "grab them by the pussy". Also, in my mind, Trump's multiple bankruptcies and his claims he can make deals with any country, corporation or organization make me think the American taxpayer gets a dry fist up the butt while he builds his Presidential Library and Casino in Vegas after he's voted out. Sure, he's more believable to you, but not to me. A guy that's been rich all his life is going to design legislation that's going to help poor and middle class Americans? A guy who used deferments to get out of military duty, shits all over a dead soldier's family and a sitting senator for being a POW is going to help out our veterans? Manufacturing jobs disappeared because there was a recession and nobody wanted to buy anything. They've stayed gone because China and other countries keeps their currency undervalued. It's towards the bottom. Even if Trump were elected, what could he do? Hold his breath until China decides to play ball? Uh, according to an interview with the AP, he refused to vow Jerusalem would remain Israel's undivided capital and suggested a peace deal "will have to do with Israel and whether or not Israel wants to make the deal -- whether or not Israel's willing to sacrifice certain things." So, you're in favor of a plan that doesn't exist yet? What if that plan becomes wholesale carpet bombing because some radicalized ISIS Twitter troll starts fucking with Trump? I don't know where you're getting "dems = cut taxes for the rich", but everyone I know believes that to be a Republican party platform. I live in a very democratic bubble where taxes are raised pretty much all the time. I don't have a huge problem with it since I'd rather see less poor people. If that means a mid-level Amazon manager buys one Mercedes this year instead of two, that's fine with me. What the fuck does the secretary of state have to do with government debt? I had a public school education, but even I know they deal with foreign policy. I'm not trusting a guy who declares bankruptcy and avoids paying taxes for the next decade with Wall Street reform. I'm waiting for the president after this one to fix this. I guess I don't give a shit about corporate benefits if it means less people are uninsured. Assuming, of course, this is true. So, like the Mafia? Seriously though, his idea of making countries pay us for protection is basically a Mafia thing. Not only that, he seems okay with Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia with having nuclear weapons in lieu of us protecting those countries. I'm all for reducing a defense budget that seems way too high, but proliferation and extortion doesn't seem like the right play.
I just don't understand how you can be so angry at Hillary for being two faced and saying she would do one thing and doing another and still support Trump. He says he'd do a lot, but look at his history: Honest question: why in gods name do you think Trump will reform the tax code? Few things: --he would personally lose millions by doing this (again, why do you think he hasn't released his taxes?) --he would still be beholden to a Republican congress, who are the ones who have been stopping this shit all along, and who haven't done this under Obama, so why would they do it under Trump? Trump suggested default. Just don't pay. Great plan! But hey, bankruptcy has solved all his problems in the past, right? I'm sure that would work just as well for a government entity as it did for his personal businesses. Let's ask Atlantic City how that went. How you can trust a guy who has bankrupted that many businesses and say "he sure knows how to handle debt!" Is astonishing. Sure, he SAYS he'll handle it. But Hillary says shit all the time, too, but you look at her past and it makes you think you can't trust her. So why don't you look at Trump's past and think the same?
Okay. Russian investors bailed Trump out when American banks would stop lending to him and he still has this whole network of financial and business ties there, as do a few of his advisors - including his foreign policy advisor. You really think his boner for Russia is influenced by his deep knowledge and thoughtful contemplation of foreign policy, international politics, and US/Russian relations? He didn't even know about Ukraine. (I also don't know why you're living in 1956 where Russia is such a threat in your mind that it's seemingly the single issue you're voting on, but whatever.) There has been an overwhelming amount of ridiculousness in this thread, but I'll say this. I've been putting in the work and the effort to actually look into all of the Clinton scandals and claims and theories myself, especially through the lens of knowing that they're all orchestrated by her political enemies, and about 75% of those scandals have been met with a resounding "...oh," either because they're completely baseless, ridiculously distorted and manipulated, something that's solely a matter of differing political views, or just something that I really don't think is that big of a deal. 20% have been things I'm not exactly pleased with in terms of the general shadiness of politics, but are realities about how politics and the world works that I've been aware of since I was 12 that I think are really silly for people to suddenly care about only when it comes to Clinton. And the other 5% are things that have made me lose a lot of respect for Bill, but have had no affect on my views on Hillary or her potential presidency because Bill is not the one running for president. Funnily enough, the more I've been digging into all this shit, the more I end up liking and respecting Hillary. As I think I've mentioned, I started out as being in the middle between Hillary and Bernie, and voted for Bernie in the primaries, and while a lot of why I wasn't immediately on board with Hillary didn't have to do with her specifically, part of it was because I had just internalized all of these accusations about her without figuring it out for myself. I didn't hate her and assumed the truth was somewhere in the middle of her most vocal critics and her most passionate defenders, but I was always skeptical about her. But when I actually started wading through everything and tracing back motivations and actually looking at the source materials for what people just casually distort I've pretty much unanimously had to admit I was duped by the things I bought into before, or just can't get on board with the claims of the things I've learned about since. I think that, in terms of her character, people are aware they're supposed to hate her and look for things to fill in the blanks from there, rather than figuring it out for themselves. (If you hate her politics, that's fine and a whole different issue.) Instead, I've discovered a career and a passion and a drive that I really admire. She's been fighting in the trenches for the things she believes in most since she was in college, and those issues are the things I care about most too. I think she's ridiculously smart and does her homework and comes up with policy based on well-researched facts and strategy rather than emotion. I appreciate that she shines when she's down in the nitty gritty working to get things done rather than in her speeches and rallies because that's what really matters. I have been completely in awe of her campaign strategy which has been freaking brilliant (and enjoying the irony of bros who definitely have Robert Greene books on their shelves calling it mean and conniving) and amazed at her poise and grace and dignity when up against Trump when most of us would probably need to be held back before punching him in the face. I begrudgingly admit that while I'm frustrated that she's catering so much to the center, her ability to work both sides of the aisle is a mark of a smart and effective politician. I can't find the quote, but I think it was Bloomberg who said in his DNC speech that the people who support Hillary the most are those that have worked with her, or have worked with Trump, and I think that's accurate and telling. When she's not having to battle her public image and can just get to work, she hustles really hard to get things done. Meanwhile, she's up against a guy who claims to be for the working class who's spent his entire life and built his fortune off of completely screwing them over. (My dad is a hipster Trump hater who's been yelling this stuff at me my whole life since he worked with architects and building companies in NYC who have been despising this guy for decades for doing the exact things he's now claiming he's going to be fighting against.) I think she has a thorough understanding of what the reality of being president means and is prepared for that and she's been campaigning with that in mind rather than serving up potentially outlandish promises. I really admire her tenacity. I think she has a fresh perspective on priorities that I'm really interested in seeing how they'd play out when her issues and the voices she's representing get a chance to not be pushed aside to a niche issue. I also think she would have fair choices for the Supreme Court, and that's a huge concern of mine. I just think she's very presidential, in both the good and very boring senses of the word. So, yeah I used to indeed be for her as the "lesser of two evils," but now I'm actually her supporter. Don't get me wrong, a huge part of my vote is still voting against Trump, his supporters, everything they stand for, and what his presidency would mean for our country in a hundred different ways, but I'm voting for her too. I also don't think she's perfect, but no candidate is. (I have been a gigantic Obama fan since before I thought it was possible for him to have any shot at even running for president, and I still have my critiques of him too.) There's my balance.
Is Trump saying he didn't brag that he sexually assaults women? Anyway, his most recent tirade is entirely predictable. Guy is a classic narcissist in so many ways. Does he remind anyone else of a third world dictator with this recent tirade?
Guys, the proof you keep throwing out is stuff he has already admitted to. It's a system designed to benefit the upper class, Hillary is the one denying these charges. Bankruptcy - You either get this or you don't. He's done hundreds of business deals. Some investments don't pan out. This happened to Warren Buffet and many of the other most successful billionaires in this country. They're all failures at business! Lolz! If you want to know if someone is making money you check if they are making money. What is complicated here? I mean I can dig through and debunk all the nonsense, but this one is completely pointless. Military- Your evidence is one quote mined snide remark towards to John McCain. Oh. Taxes- He's admitted he's abused the system to the max. So do the Clinton donors. He's not releasing them because there is no benefit to his campaign to do so. Hillary has run on this her entire campaign. She talked about this in the last debate too. Obama ran on this. Seriously, where do you guys come up with this shit? She did nothing as a senator either. She was a member of the Obama administration that has hiked it. Fine, this doesn't fall solely on her by a long shot, but given her track record, and her apparent unwillingness to close loopholes in lieu of the wikileaks and her donors I don't think she does anything about it. To answer most of what you two guys are saying though - you keep trying to spin the Hillary criticisms back onto Trump. It boils down to something very simple that we won't be able to agree on, I suppose. 1. We have seen her in action and she won't admit to the corruption in politics, much less her own. 2. She is pretending it isn't a problem and Donald is stating the problem, not denying it. And I don't think either of you are wrong. It just comes down to a matter of which one of these dirt bags you trust more. That one sentence speaks volumes. That was your first problem. Where do you think these wikileaks are coming from? You buy the "It's all Russia" nonsense? People in her own court are disgusted with her. You didn't debunk a single one of her scandals. In fact you didn't even address them. You made a vague allusion to some of it just being how the world works, and then went on and on about how awesome Hillary has been. That's fine if that's your opinion, but just to be clear your post didn't even approach the many concerns people have with Hillary Clinton. And you're crazy. Like seriously crazy.
This is a big one for me so I wanted to address it separately. Michael Moore made Roger & Me about this specific issue long before the recession. His documentaries suck, but it's been an issue for a long time. It certainly did not start with the recession. The economics of this nation were built on manufacturing and have been steadily disappearing since the Reagan era. China's economy is dependent on us buying their goods. That gives us real leverage and we need tariffs and taxes on their imports. This drives the price up to help American manufacturers while China has no realistic alternative except to continue selling due to the protectionism in the EU. They adjust their own currency to increase exports on a whim, it is not a floating currency like the US dollar. The US and our allies control the majority of the world GDP, we need to use leverage through the WTO to hit China with economic sanctions if they do not adopt a floating currency. What they are doing with the value of Yuan is basically opportunistic manipulation of the global market for what best suits their needs at the time. With China being a rising superpower and our two nations so intertwined on trade this is a huge issue. Trump has spoken about this numerous times. Clinton wanted the TPP until she got caught. Fuck her. China has been kicking out American manufacturers and rewriting legislation every year to support home grown industries. This problem is going to fucking erupt as we invest more and more into the service sector. I've known about this problem since I was in college. Anyone who pays even a little attention to the global market can see it, and it's sad so many Americans are so ignorant on this issue.
Point by point: 1. Uh, no...we already had a fuck-up as president and it wasn't fun (remember, born into money, good at business?). Not again, he needs some measure of success in business, and not the kind of exploitative business we are all sick of. 2. The system is broken, but Trump has no experience, political capital or personal qualities that can rectify it. Seriously, he is literally a pariah, who would help him? Who would work with him? 3. I don't give a fuck about Israel, but I don't believe Trump has the experience or skills to negotiate that quagmire into a better state. He can't unite Republicans, how the hell would he unite Jews and Muslims? 4. I don't give a fuck about ISIS either. ISIS' whole deal is to goad the west into an attack at Dubuq (sp?). Trump is exactly the kind of guy that would fall for that trap. Energy independence will go a lot further than bombs in that part of the world, and allow us to sidestep that shit show: when the oil money runs out (and looking at SA, UAE, etc. it will), those people will be angry and institutions a lot closer and more culpable than us. 5. Again, how would Trump enact meaningful legislation, after antagonizing his supposed future colleagues for 2 years? I agree the tax code needs help, before we wind up like Greece. I highly doubt this has escaped Hillary's attention and I think she has demonstrated an ability to make the necessary adjustments and compromises to get something like this done. Never mind the fact that why the fuck would Trump cut his own throat and raise taxes on himself? 6. I'm not sure that we need more reform, or more enforcement. Also, this seems reductionist: Wall Street is bad, so smite them with reform? To do what? Where is the law currently failing? I don't see where it is, I see it in dire need of enforcement at the same level we enforce, I dunno, marijuana laws. 7. Our health care system is atrocious. I think Medicaid is one of the few government agencies that does their fucking job well, and can be expanded. Everywhere else on Earth the government has a role in health care, and the ACA was Nixon's idea for fuck's sakes. Fix this and watch the economy skyrocket...my employer pays a premium damn near half my salary: where do you think he'd like that money to go? Hell, start expanding Medicaid/care to vets, people younger than 65, students and the unemployed. It WILL take a bite out of costs, because these people are getting health care, and the rest of us are subsidizing it. 8. I agree that Europe needs to spend more. Japan needs to participate more (but Goddamn is that region sensitive when Japan does a fucking thing). Australia, SK, etc. on down the line can do more, but our whole premise of Pax Americana is LESS threats. Asking Japan to strengthen their military is going to spur SK to do the same, which will spur NK, (as well as the Philippines, who have a Trump all their own, and likely SE Asia) and destabilize entire chunks of the world, ultimately threatening our hegemony. Right now, the two clear threats are Russia and China. Our allies will do whatever we ask, because in no way is Chinese or Russian aggression preferable to ours. The more our military does, the less everyone else's does, and that's not a bad thing. The UN can be ramped up and taken a bit more seriously. Also, Russia and China are socially ticking time bombs. We have our own demographic issues, but the next 20 years for those places aren't going to be pretty if things continue as they're trending and Putin especially excels at pointing at external threats for internal strife. So, a lot of this sabre-rattling is derived from those leaders consolidating their own power in shitty circumstances than them trying to take a shot at us. And again, Trump's bullying persona doesn't lend credibility to international relations' delicate, nuanced, CULTURALLY SENSITIVE, and professional demands. He'd be better at this than someone like Clinton, who can survive smear campaign after smear campaign, and let it roll off her back?
Our entire system, economics and all, was built on some assumptions that are rapidly changing, like the nuclear family structure, or your job in adulthood should provide you enough money to live off of with a pension to boot. The trade stuff with China is kind of a moot point. China's entire draw is cheap labor. As their middle class is developing, the cheap labor disappears. We know their economy is doing poorly, because the resources they import are declining. We certainly can't trust the official state data. China is not a foreign-friendly nation, historically and pretty soon they will return to the mean. They don't need to be the world's factory for much longer, indeed it doesn't seem like they can be with the pollution issues they are having. So, the era of cheap Chinese shit is coming to a rapid close, and they may be soon competing with SK, Japan, Germany, etc but in much more limited fashion, because Communism. For cheap labor: If not China, then Indonesia. If not those two, then Bangladesh. If not that, then somewhere else. Some country is always going to be willing to exploit the fuck out of poor people leaving the villages. Also, as industrial farming spreads to those places, there are literally millions of people with no opportunity to support themselves. The trade agreements are designed to level the playing field, while still allowing the jobs and opportunities to flow. China's currency manipulation will end up biting them in the dick, the way it did Japan. In the meantime, we need to ensure some level of stability, to avoid trade wars (or, equally likely, the old fashioned kind of wars). Step one is getting everyone to agree on what the fuck the playing field is, and the rules of the game. Thus, trade agreements like TPP. Some of this shit is heinous, but at the same time it's what goes unreported that's worse: we can outlaw child labor and exploitative practices, or currency manipulations through shit like this. All of the sudden, the global economy isn't a state-sponsored sport anymore and firms can be held accountable for their fuckings around. If Tesla can manufacture cars in LA, then companies can manufacture in the US. It's just easier and more profitable to complain and have it done in Mexico or China and everyone points their finger at the government to fix it. I disagree, it's pure fucking greed and business leaders suffering from short-termism and avoiding risk. Plenty of companies still manufacture here and do quite well, but the level we were at in the 50's is never coming back. Finally, I don't give a fuck about what kind of job you have, it needs to pay a living wage. That's the piece of the "bring back manufacturing" that we all pine for: enough money to fucking live on.
Russia isn't the threat! The US starting a war with them over Syria, a country no American cares about and the government has no business meddling in, is what worries me. Even if it was a 1-sided war like Iraq, the death toll would be unimaginable. World War 3 is a serious issue to me. Call me crazy. If Trump's motives regarding Russia are not good, so what? I'll take peace over war regardless.