Had a conversation with Kampf, and he's now unbanned. Be warned, though, I'm sick of stupid people making stupid posts. If you're going to say something, be smart about it... use some critical thinking, post supporting links/sources, and don't just make unsubstantiated comments that back your opinions. I don't care if you make the most outrageous claim ever... as long as you make some effort to back it up with sources and supporting information, I'm totally cool with it. If you just post bullshit that lists your ass as the source, then you're taking a break. Very, very few people that post here will ever be a subject matter expert on the shit we talk about, so don't assume you are one and that your statement carries that weight. Too many people are posting their opinions as if they're facts.
Enough. Let's get back to discussing things politely, intelligently, and with respect. And let's not feed the trolls.
So it looks like Best Korea's Kim Jong Un has declared a "quasi state of war". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...red-onto-war-footing-by-Kim-Jong-un-live.html I know we always make fun of Best Korea, but in all reality, what kind of a threat do they pose? Anyone have any insight? Thoughts?
They do have a shit ton of explosives pointed at Seoul, which may or may not hit their mark, and they are bat shit insane. It remains to be seen if they are suicidal enough to carry out their threats, but they could do some major damage before they're wiped off the map. I passed through Seoul a few years ago and it kind of freaked me out as we were taxiing to the airport that there were so many gun towers with guys manning machine guns along the way. Chances are, nothing happens. Fat boy made his point and eats an Asian moose as a victory meal. And the world keeps spinning. I do worry that at some point the neurons in his brain are going to misfire and he will launch a strike against South Korea. This just isn't that time, he's thinking rationally enough not to have done it.
A family member does explosives testing (coolest job ever, by the way). A lot of his work is DOD contract stuff, and he was one of NASA's go-to people when shit went wrong with shuttles (like that one that exploded from foam hitting the fuel tank). While I don't have any personal insight, and he is as politically biased as they come, I still trust his information on defense stuff because he's starts doing classified research before the public is even aware of these "threats." And when I ask him about NK, he just laughs. He says they have the ability to do damage, but not anywhere remotely close to north america. Apparently we have quite a few assets that can turn them into a smoking crater before they so much as launch a missile. Might be obvious to a lot on here, but their "prepare for war" and everything is just so they can use it as in-house propoganda. He's compared our ability to defend against them to using a shotgun to kill a snake. So I'm not terribly worried. Though I have to weigh what he knows and tells me, against the fact he is pre-disposed to think this way because he strikes me as someone who would take what he knows and only filter out the facts that suit his political viewpoint (i.e. "America, fuck ya!!!").
(Lived in Korea for 2 years). The Kim family can't go to war and survive it. They can't NOT play up SK/US as an existential threat and survive. If war broke out, it would last about 3-6 weeks according to a DOD case study I read. Air superiority would be established somewhat immediately, with 5-10% erosion of NK forces every day for 20 days until they were effectively forced underground or compartmentalized (assuming a similar commitment to the 2003 invasion of Iraq). The difficulty with that is that Seoul and the northern cities would be demolished, 300,000-400,000 US troops would be casualties due to the terrain and resilience of the Korean forces-they have been propagandized for 60 years against us) and the reconstruction would strain SK and erase most of their economic gains for a generation. Most of the older generation who want reunification are dying out, anyway. There are also ugly questions about NK nuclear capability and biological weapons (and who they got them from: China? Russia?) as well as the various criminal enterprises the regime runs....answering those questions would destabilize the region in a big way. Maintaining the status quo is best for all parties, except the 20 million or so NK citizens. Nearly every time this happens, it's caused by internal strife....capped off last year by the execution (by fucking RPG!) of a member of the Kim family, signalling a major change. You just don't touch one of the Kims, and now that there are some serious threats to the personality cult (there's a great Reddit post about why the loudspeakers are working) the regime is even more unstable than ever. If it collapses internally, it's entirely likely to be worse....a military-run North Korea with no aspirations of preserving the dynasty.
Did you type that right? Thats WW2-sized totals. If you mean including injured, then maybe, but I dont see any way the US would lose 400K troops.
Whoops. Assuming a commitment of forces similar to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, 30-40k in US casualties. This is also assuming NK shoots first, unloading every gun they have pointed at Seoul and the various military installations along the DMZ, so the majority of those casualties occur almost immediately. I've tried to find the case study that I'm referencing, but my Google fu is weak. It was a study done in 2006-2007 as a strategic analysis and projection of the conflict.
From what I've read, North Korea has a much larger army, but their weaponry is so outdated as to be almost useless. In contrast, South Korea has more modern weaponry, including a substantial US-backed/supplied air force that would help dominate any conflict. That being said, artillery would more than likely wipe out Seoul, and bring about 500k in casualties, and that is the real concern.
All US combat deaths in WW2 totaled just over 400k. I don't have a good link, but total US forces in Korea currently amounts to a little under 30k.
Sheesh. Early Monday trading on the Shanghai Index and it's down 7.28%. My 401k is about to take a major hit.
I am watching cautiously as well. My Apple stock is in danger. I am a paranoid ass, so every market dip/correction makes me think the end times are coming. Barring that, it is a wonderful buying opportunity. Which the jaded, paranoid part of me thinks this is a massive hedge fund scam to get shit cheaper.
China has been an economic paper tiger for awhile, their decline was well overdue. The tumble thus far "today" has been a reaction to US markets on Friday (as they were closed already by the time the DJIA started to tank) added to the steady downturn thats been seen over the last 2 months (look at the Shanghai Composite in June vs today). As for US markets, its not gonna be that bad tomorrow, comparitively. The Dow finished down about 500 pts on Friday, I don't think we see anywhere near that. I think we do have some ways to go down this week, but I think Thursday and Friday were probably the biggest sudden chunks.
I read Chinese stocks were somewhere around 3-5% of the overall stocks, so this whole fallout is completely overblown. Someone in finance can totally come in to tell me why I'm wrong. The past 8 months has been a back and forth with highs and declines, like the day traders are in control. It is fucking stupid. Unrelated, my whole mantra for a healthy world economy is to get people employed and spending. Then everyone wins. But what do I know; god forbid we don't have double digit growth every quarter.
Pre-market trading on the Dow is -343 as of 11:04PM ET: http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/ The Shanghai Index is now -8.55% EDIT: Dow -457.00 / -2.78% Level 16,010.00 Data as of 11:47pm ET
So it's been reported that Chinese troops are being mobilized in support of North Korea... first time in a long time. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20150823000133&cid=1101 Seems a bit more "real" than previous posturings.
ISIS blew this up yesterday: I'd like to know why the Middle East nations cannot contain an "army" with a few thousand members. This is not an all-powerful conquered like Gengis Khan they're dealing with.