But Seriously...

I haven't posted in this thread since the evac began, because frankly the whole debacle is close to breaking me. I spent a large focus of my military career on Afghanistan...spending the bulk of, if not all of 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, & 2013 in Afghanistan or directly supporting ops from other locations.

There was a lot we got wrong and a lot we could have done better. However at the end of the day I still believe we were there for the right reasons. I agree we cannot stay forever, but we're still in Korea...hell we're still in Europe. Yes, neither location is actively kinetic, but Korea from the armistice through the 70s was dangerous...even today, Korea can still have moments.

You can't force a cultural change in a few years or even a few decades...it takes generations...we were just starting to see examples of intangible progress, such as Afghan women elected to public offices.

before I write a novel on my cellphone, I'll end it at that

 

Seems like Afghanistan was just starting to become the country that the next generation of Afghans needed to grow up in, one where "women in school/government" was just matter of course, nothing special.

 

I'm just annoyed at the number of people acting like this isn't exactly what we asked for. This is what both candidates ran on, this is what received high approvals in polling. No one was out there saying "I support a slow withdrawal from Afghanistan on an indeterminate timetable with contingencies for reengaging if conditions don't meet expectations", they were saying "get out immediately, or sooner." Trump campaigned on being out by last Christmas. If anyone is to blame for this situation, it's the voters, who expressed their clear preference for this.

 

It is what most people wanted, however no one foresaw just how badly this administration would fuck it up. Very few would've supported pulling the military out first while civilians remained behind and absolutely no one would've supported continuing to pull out while the Taliban was actively rolling over the country in a Blitzkrieg. And then there's the whole "Please don't hurt our people, we're pulling out. Ok? Ok please?" bullshit. Biden fucked this up seven ways from Sunday and now that we have dead military and Afghani civilians pretty much the only way forward for us is militarily.

 

They absolutely would have. Any effort to reengage would have been met with cries of "this is how the {deep state/military industrial complex (pick your side)} maintains forever wars. It's always just 'a few more bombs and a few more soldiers will solve it'". America wanted out, this is what out looks like.

 

Depending on how many 120mm's they have, i'm not so sure I agree.
I don't see a runway holding up well.

The fact that they've had so long to plan and move weapon systems, they could shut down the airport irrespective of whether the runway sustains damage. They could lay down a massive amount of indirect fire and also hit planes with rockets or missile systems as they take off.

It pisses me off that we're in the tactical situation of being at their mercy. If they really want to get after it, we're going to take more casualties.

 

I’ve been making this point to people over the last couple of days. While the buck stops at the Oval Office, no one believes Trump crafted that agreement. And Biden wasn’t sitting at his desk drafting withdrawal plans. Could Trump have said “This is ridiculous on the face of it, I’m not agreeing to this”? Of course. And Biden’s response has been nothing short of incompetent and pathetic.

But They were both told these were viable approaches by state department, CIA and military advisers. These are the clowns who have been fucking shit up for decades and need to be held accountable. Heads should be fucking rolling. You really want to get mad at someone? Get mad at them.

 

You don't have to agree. It won't change the reality that the weapons effects of 120mm rockets and mortars is insignificant against reinforced concrete that's multiple feet thick. Outside a lucky hit on an aircraft is they delay ops due to the need to sweep the runways, ramp etc for FOD.

What missile systems? Any MANPADS they may possess are pre 9/11 era...well past designed shelf life. Do you know when the last MANPAD was used in Afghanistan? Its been awhile.

RPGs? Sure, its possible to hit an aircraft, but is it likely? You're more likely to get hit by lightning. Also if you hit one, then what? Sure there's always the golden BB, but you're again talking about a small warhead against a large multiple engine aircraft. With people as cargo, C-17s run out of volume before hitting weight restrictions, they're not taking off at MTOW. Look up the DHL flight that took a MANPAD while landing at BIAP, that will give you some context.

Could the Taliban as you say "really get after it?" Sure, they could, but they aren't dumb and know the potential longterm repercussions of such actions outweigh any short term benefit. They remember October 2001 and don't want to give us a reason to repeat. Additionally, they want outside aid...they'll fuck around with as much of the evacuation as they think they can get away with, but be wary of jeopardizing chances of becoming recognized by the UN and most nations as the legit government of Afghanistan. Overtly interfering with the evac will do that.

 

So anyway, looks like another Cat 4 hurricane is fitting to hit Louisiana on the exact anniversary of Katrina. I remember being on the past incarnation of this very forum as fellow members kept us all updated in real time.

Good luck to them, Ida looks like she means business.

 

I remember reading the official warning from the National Weather Service before Katrina made land fall and thinking it was about as dire a warning as scientists give. It included the line "WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS."

 

I'm unsure as to what was left behind at places like Bagram but didn't the Taliban just waltz in and go shopping to all the equipment that was left behind. I'm assuming there was a lot of stuff there not to mention all the Afghani military gear.

 

The Taliban have equipment we left behind and didn't destroy in place, as well as equipment and munitions they took from ANSF forces. However, we haven't given Afghani's any type of anti-air weaponry since the 80s. Also as I stated and Clutch stated, it isn't in the Taliban's strategic interests to do anything to damage or destroy the airfields. This meme is pretty on point for more than just Blackhawk helicopters:

 

Mental note: stop invading, occupying and creating vacuums in countries, period.

The Taliban will indeed take over the USA military base , leaving America only 624 more military bases in the Middle East. Military bases that are there to keep the rest of the world in line, and who’s presence pisses everyone else off.

 

I always think of how many people your country wastes the resources of watching others when they could be at home protecting their own instead. Get rid of the empire and channel focus and funds into the country.

 

Playing empire always ends in disaster for the country that does. Humans never learn from the past it seems.