Wild how all the twitter "patriots" have gotten quiet, when Russia is now the focus of international heat. I wonder how that happened....
But in other, totally unrelated news, Twitter and Facebook have locked out a bunch of Russian-based accounts.
He tried to replicate what he did with the Crimea siege and hoped it would be over before the international community had time to respond. That failed and he sent Russia into what will eventually be a major economic depression. Even if he succeeds in Ukraine, it will be a pyrrhic victory, at best. I never bought the theory that he sent his new and barely trained troops as the tip of the spear. Sure, that works for a foot soldier carrying a rifle, but they're not going to put an 18-year-old conscript with no training in a cockpit or behind the wheel of a tank. It's more likely that the Russian military is far weaker than they portrayed. This will probably end with China brokering a peace deal since it's Putin's only way out at this point, aside from just firing ICBMs.
How is any kind of peace deal supposed to be negotiated when the hostility is 100% coming from the Russians who continue to put out unbelievably bad faith statements about what’s happening? Denazification? Security concerns? All they’ve done the last few days is bomb civilians. At this point, any sort of concessions made to Putin will only show him and the world that you can absolutely bully smaller, weaker unallied countries into getting whatever you want.
100%, but it feels like the Russians knew this campaign would be entirely unpopular among their own military and citizens. So they essentially tricked them into going into battle under completely false pretenses. It’s the most Russian shit ever. Now they can continue to lie about their casualty numbers or just tell their people it was some sort of NATO-related terrorism who killed their people.
I don't know, but China is his only actual lifeline at this point. I'm not convinced it will actually happen, but Ukraine may give up Donbas in exchange for joining the EU. They probably won't do it because they're not going to give up anymore sovereign territory on principle, but they are going to have a real issue with insurgency in a region that would rather be part of Russia anyway. Also, for Russia, Ukraine is not the only consideration. If Russia completely collapses, there will be geopolitical reverberations. The Assad government in Syria will fall to the rebels. The EU will start becoming militarized. Right-wing influence in EU countries will accelerate and grow. The Israeli-Palestine situation will further deteriorate. It's probably in the best interest for the West for a peace deal to be struck. A really good book on how Russia views the world is, Weak Strongman. I highly recommend it.
What incentive does China have to negotiate, or really get involved at all? Also, is Ukraine joining the EU a given, even now? I can see Sweden and Finland joining NATO, at least in part, as a "fuck you", and some assurance that they will enjoy some additional protection from Russian aggression. I don't see Russia destabilizing if they negotiate quickly. I can understand there being two sets of negotiations: one military with Ukraine, and one sanctions/financial with the G8. Ukraine will be glad to get to safety, and yeah, I can see giving up Donbas as a bargaining chip. The G8 however, or the larger international community has no incentive to rush to safety, and you can imagine the long-term costs piling up as this goes on. The West is heavily invested in the status quo, to the extent they didn't believe an attack was coming. Now that it's out the window, they will want to address the new balance of power and tilt it in their favor. I see the right-wing influences in Europe growing no matter what. Aside from the ethnocentric shit (no more slavs, turks or other people who talk funnier than me!), the Pax Americana is over, and they will want to address the now real threat of another land war. Also, I'd envision serious acceleration towards energy independence as a response to this. Some of that will happen naturally as energy prices spike and stay high, putting some stuff within financial range, but I'd see some political manuevering as well. Between Brexit and this, a lot of the EU are going to be looking at some higher levels of independence. Peak oil might be over, so I think the next resource supply is going to be minerals and rare earths needed for some of the alternative energy solutions. Russia is again poised to be a major player here, because of the sheer land mass, but.....mining isn't as profitable as oil/gas, and it benefits a much smaller group. Over a longer time frame, Russia oddly benefits from climate change. Vast swaths of territory become arable, the infrastructure required to live in some spots becomes less severe, and within reason, their energy requirements level out. I could see Russia pivoting to a bread-basket, mining and specialized industrial economy, rather than the oil/gas heavy mix now. So, there's at least some possible paths to a better future, but.....not likely to benefit oligarchs, no one's dick gets hard about it, and it pretty loudly acknowledges Russia took a massive step backward in the last 40 years.
Because three weeks ago China closed a favorable deal for Russia to supply them with 10 million cubic meters of gas per year for the next 30 years.
Not intentionally dense, but....so? Why would that compel the Chinese to get involved in a wildly unpopular armed conflict in Europe?
....for what actual benefit? From what I can tell, the Chinese are still suffering from COVID and there's residual blame there (see: European ethnocentrism). Also, them getting enmeshed in EU politics seems like a quagmire that would only be worth it if they have something serious to gain. I'd imagine they look at the prestige, soft power and diplomatic skill with the same value as influencer, social media presence and Instagram model does to an HR person, especially after the Olympics. Also, they have to share a border with Russia. Fucking up those negotiations puts hostility next door.
Economic leverage over a country they share a continent with. Every geopolitical decision China makes is around expanding its sphere of economic and political influence.
How many do you folks think will make the trip to Ukraine to join the international legion? Any other thoughts on this? I picture mostly people that played too much COD seeing the opportunity to play for higher stakes... without all the lengthy training and command structure of the US military branches. https://www.reuters.com/world/americans-canadians-answer-ukraine-call-foreign-fighters-2022-03-01/
Roman Abramovich is selling Chelsea FC and donating all the proceeds. On its own it's not a big deal, but holy shit what a signal. Donating the proceeds means this isn't an effort to get the money out before the West seizes it, it's basically trying to buy allowance for the rest of his wealth to be welcome in the West after Putin falls. And he's paying quite a premium for it. This is the Russian equivalent of a vote of no confidence.
What’s the likelihood that in these somewhat publicized weapons reups from various nations, that other stuff gets included? Like drones or even consultants to help with planning and defenses. Is that just some Tom Clancy-like fantasy I have or is that something we might try?
I mentioned this earlier, but it has to be. Bulgaria and Poland's MiG-29s/SU-25s are probably the only thing in the NATO arsenal that the Ukrainians are trained to pilot. NATO's own defense is built on a backbone of the F-35/Eurofighter, and we have a lot of F-16s lying around, but I can't imagine the Ukrainians are trained on any of them. The US never exported many F-15s and doesn't export the F-22 at all. I'm pretty sure only the French know how to fly the Rafale, and no one knows how to fly the Gripen.
New batch of Turkish drones incoming. https://reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide...nian_minister_of_defense_reznikov_says_a_new/
Good news lads, captured Russian tanks don't have to be declared as taxable income. That booty is free booty.