3/16 is the big day for defaults in Russia. Creditors will try to convert the RUB to USD or EUR anyway they can. This will further crash the market there. Then they’ll probably sue to seize Russian assets held abroad. This is kind of what happened after the fall of the USSR. Ideally this would scare China from lending them money, but they will probably just demand payment in oil. Normally a country would try to sell bonds when they want to borrow money. No one is going to buy Russian bonds except maybe Chinese investors.
So is his point that Russia didn't actually invade Ukraine and this is all a false flag? Or what? I would ask him myself but he blocked me a while back.
That's the thing, his example of "you shouldn't be such a sheep and just believe whatever they tell you" is to...cast doubt on whether or not Russia's invasion of Ukraine is really happening? Whether or not they're really shooting up evac trains and cluster bombing neighborhoods? He's aware we have all this shit on video?
Totally agree. That entire thing seems like he read something similar elsewhere and decided to co-opt it. The only thing that was missing was, “…and everyone clapped.”
When it comes to social media, everything everywhere, on every level, from a nationally published editorial, to a ten-part twitter thread, to a little known conspiracy theory blog, boils down to “I am smarter than you, and therefore I am better than you.”
He did ketamine or some shit to treat his depression and ended up frying his brain. Being skeptical of vaccines but willing to take an un-tested treatment protocol administered by someone who probably looks like Harmony Korine fucked the corpse of Amy Winehouse is very “on-brand”.
At two weeks in, gas in VA is $4.25/gallon. It was $3.58 on Sunday. I think Putin tried a blitzkrieg maneuver on the cheap. He didn't commit serious air power (expensive), he didn't send experienced, well-trained and well-equipped ground troops (precious and expensive) and he wanted to keep his "serious" military assets in reserve in case he needed to dissuade a foreign power or three. He assumed the Ukrainian government/military would fold when they saw Russian tanks, and that the international community would be sufficiently intimidated that within a few hours, he would be negotiating from a position of strength. Now, he has to commit resources he'd rather not. He's goading an international response by allowing civilian targets to be hit (keep in mind, it's not like Putin or the command staff are saying "let's bomb apartment buildings for the lulz and to troll the libz", the folks on the ground who are getting sniped at are calling in those strikes), and I think he's ever more confident that foreign boots are not hitting the ground in Ukraine. That means, it's a matter of time: he can flood the Ukraine with soldiers, the standing Russian army dwarfs the opposing force. He can commit some of his high-efficacy resources (whatever the Russian equivalent of Seals and Rangers are) for high value targets/opportunities that appear, like Kiev, but otherwise just work the meat grinder until Ukraine gives up. The question is who gives up first? Russia's economy can take the hit in the short term, and the inflation and gas prices will make the opposition question how long they can hold out. Putin can have folks at the negotiating table for propaganda purposes, but I can't imagine any of those talks are serious yet. I don't know what else the international community can do to add pressure: they shut down fucking McDonald's for God's sakes. Some of the measures being discussed are harsh, insane or would be interpreted as acts of war themselves (like imprisoning Russian nationals abroad, or openly discussing and planning assassination attempts). Poland offering MiG's to the US to give to Ukraine seems odd (why not just give them over directly? You worried somethign might happen, hmm??), but if they are disclosing that offer publicly, then privately...one has to assume things are changing hands. It seems they are trying to trade MiGs for F-16's (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/...s-to-the-us-as-ukraine-asks-for-help-00015259), and the US is just supposed to...like, pay for shipping and are cool with giving away F-16's? Seems weird, but it also doesn't seem like the kind of thing that was meant to be public.
The prevailing analysis is Putin thought Russia would meet little to no resistance; met as "liberators" instead of invaders. He and his general staff wiffed that prediction. Traditional Russian doctrine is to mass fires and then move in with ground units. They didn't which makes me think the aforementioned assessment has merit. Also, I think they didn't want to significantly destroy infrastructure, because then they need to rebuild everything...something we learned after WW2, Desert Storm, etc., and Putin & his general staff are astute enough to understand the less damage the Russian's incur (as well as civilian loss of life, etc.,) the less hostile you make the populace. All of that has since gone out the window with the amount of resistance Ukraine has mounted and now you're seeing the Russian military return to their base doctrine. Perhaps Russia doesn't have the Precision Guided Munition (PGM's) stocks the west thought they did, or never had them to begin with. Many open source cockpit photos show Russian pilots using consumer grade western commercial GPS systems. Maybe the Russians don't have the PGM capability we thought they had. Also, the Russian military just doesn't train as combined arms the way the west does. Close air support isn't really a thing the Russians train to do like the west. Then add the Ukrainian military also uses Russian equipment and it becomes very hard for aircrews to distinguish between friendly and hostile ground units. I am concerned about what Russia is holding back, however, I see numerous social media posts showing the lack of preventive maintenance...flat tires due to dry rot, weakened sidewalls due to sitting stationary for months if not years, apparent grease leaking from wheel hubs, etc., the reporting of Russian soldiers quickly surrendering, retreat, or otherwise sabotage their own equipment. What will Russia commit to Ukraine next? All of these tell me the Russian military is not prepared and that leads me back to what we're starting to see: massed indirect fire indiscriminately targeting population centers. Additionally, low quality & lack of training is often increases the probability of your troops firing indiscriminately at civilian targets. They're called Spetnaz or the Private Military Contractor (PMC) Wagner Group and so far, they're not really performing as the west thought they would...I have no idea why. The defenders have the advantage...reduced logistical lines, knowing the terrain, friendly populace, often more fortified positions, etc., this removes a much of Russia's quantitative advantage. The downside, the defenders are tied to positions and thus easier to target. It comes down to can Ukraine wear down Russia or find an offramp they're willing to give Putin that let's him have a "win" at home? Even if the fighting stopped today and Russia immediately withdrew, I don't know how much the world will welcome him back. As much as the west want's Russian energy exports, the invasion may be a bridge too far and Putin's now a pariah as far as the rest of the western world is concerned. However the west or the globe as a whole doesn't have the ability to remove Putin from power. This is the bazillion dollar question. Right now, there is no "win" Putin can sell at home. Will the Russian populace become more unruly and dissatisfied,? What effect if any would that have? Overall, who's clock run's out first? Putin's or Zelensky's? Will NATO get pulled in before it's over? What does NATO involvement look like? Trading conventional missile strikes on military sites? Limited to conventional land warfare in Europe? How much of Europe? Would it include the US mainland? Tactical nuclear or end the world strategic nuclear? There is a difference between the two in Russian doctrine and they get a vote in how this plays out. I have some thoughts on the MiG deal, but not formulated enough to post here yet.
Years ago I worked with a Russian guy. We were at work when the Kursk went down, and he sat down heavily, and wept, as his brother was assigned to it. "Don't worry dude, they're sending in the recovery subs." "You don't understand... the Russian military has not been paid properly in years... everything that is not nailed down has been taken and sold. The military is rotting from the inside by the people that are in it. They are already dead, as any life saving piece of equipment onboard has already been stripped out and sold." He went on to tell us then, in the late 90's, just how fucked the military was in all regards. I think we're seeing the results of that in the news today.
The ironic part is that Zelensky became in 2 weeks what Putin has desperately been trying to become for 20 years. The false bravado/unearned arrogance that befalls all these dictators seems to be a pattern. Only surround yourself with yes men. Fire or kill any dissenters. Humiliate people who speak against you. Demand unadulterated loyalty but give none in return. Constantly skim off the top of every single transaction. Get high off your own bullshit long enough and you start to actually believe it.
The thing is, Putin was most definitely a fucking bad-ass for a lot of his career... there's a reason he got to where he is. It's not so much that he's pretending to be that bad-ass, but he is probably just getting old and desk-bound but his brain still thinks he's that 28 year old spec ops dude.
I have zero doubt that he's way fucking harder than just about everyone on this board. Full stop. The dude has killed people, personally, and is ruthless. He is now falling prey to the trappings of power and age, but he's still a fucking hard-ass. Don't believe the memes. At most, I think he may be out of touch a bit due to those he's surrounding himself with.
I don't know the age of the Mig29's but maybe they saw it as on opportunity to upgrade from free, and get some good will.
Yea, but what are they trading for F16's, super hornets? Either way probably an upgrade for The Mig29's. They could just be looking out for them selves as well as being able to say look we helped.
All the back and forth bullshit in public could just be a head fake to confuse everyone. But I don’t see how they could transport a bunch of planes without everyone seeing it.