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But Seriously...

Discussion in 'Permanent Threads' started by Juice, Jun 19, 2015.

  1. downndirty

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    On the Russia/Wagner thing:

    1. Prigozhin wasn't really given a choice: join the Russian army under incompetent leadership and abandon your enterprise (Wagner) or die? Ok, well, if Ima die....he then saw an opportunity to threaten Russia with the tactic it should have used against Ukraine: rapid, sudden strike at the capital, depose and dispose of leadership, the whole shit is over within a week. His beef seemed to be solely directed at the generals in charge that he felt were hampering the effort (putting it mildly), and his forces had a track record that spoke to "nah, fuck all that noise."

    2. Putin doesn't suffer here. He understands Prigozhin in a way that his generals didn't (death before dishonor...well, ok, but Ima take these cunts with me), and the "exile in Belarus" is a valid response, until months later, when Prigozhin is fully neutered and useless, and then...well, a good ol Russian "oopsie" will befall him. Putin wasn't in real danger, that's laughable, and a Western fantasy. Prigozhin was very astute and clear that his beef was not with Russia or with Putin, he understands those to be the same thing, and a beef with them is a death sentence. Not to mention, there is no way to survive the court of public opinion: he'd be labelled a western sympathizer or a tool of western imperialism or whatever, and would have no safe harbor anywhere east of Paris.

    3. There's probably a LOT to this negotiation that will never be public, or even privy to Western/US intelligence. Prigozhin was not a revolutionary, he was faced with a very shitty choice at the behest of idiot (in his opinion) generals who are losing the war for Putin. He was never going to march on Moscow, and I'd say he was probably flabbergasted that he got as far as he did. I'd wager that the negotiation happened to ensure this dude didn't seize a nuke or two, and become a global problem on Moscow's doorstep. The Southern HQ of the Russian military probably had some stuff that if Prigozhin found himself in possession of, he couldn't NOT take them, and that would also have guaranteed a Western/Global response. This dude sneaking a nuke out of Russia and it being his insurance plan is a nightmare, Putin knew he had to avoid at all costs. Looks like a generous offer was successful in that regard, even if Prigozhin made off with some weapons upgrades. It didn't necessarily have to be a nuke: any high-value asset within the territory Prigozhin rapidly occupied would have had the same outcome, and he couldn't be allowed the time to thoroughly search it and find whatever.

    4. Lukashenko stepped up in a big way, and can serve as Putin's assurance that Prigozhin isn't running around with anything nuclear. Once this little outburst happened, magically, plans were approved to attack a nuclear facility in Ukraine, so that if anything radioactive happened, the Russian state had a convenient excuse. Prigozhin is close enough to monitor, but far enough away to feel some sense of honor within the agreement, and critically: out of Ukraine.

    5. The lack of public support, and the lack of military response to Prigozhin isn't surprising. It's orders, and it's a demonstration of the effectiveness of the tactic. Did Prigozhin get a jump scare in? Sure did. Did the average person know what was going on? Of course not. Were the military assets in Rostov enough to stop him? Obviously not, and anything capable of fending off a 25k force would be more engaged at the front, not just pulling guard duty. That's not weird, it'd be weird if there was a force there that could, within a 48 hour window. Prigozhin knew he had max 96 hours before a serious force could be mounted, and he would be obliterated. There was no way he'd make it to Moscow without recruiting forces that number in the thousands, and well....gee, I wonder why thousands of men, military-aged, fit and full of fight didn't sign up over the weekend....You could probably make a serious effort to any place on Earth with a force of 25k, but you couldn't hold it for more than three or four days. Besides, the fuck did anyone expect the Russian population to do? The news that Wagner forces were being celebrated reeks of bullshit to me, if for no other reason than it'd require a street-level awareness of the goings on, when Russia, especially Rostov, has seen quite a bit of military comings and goings.

    6. Putin is FURIOUS, but not stupid. He wasn't threatened, and the perception that he was just doesn't strike me as valid. Prigozhin knew better, and Prigozhin might have known better than most to fear who/what comes after Putin. I'd expect a major shakeup of the top military brass, and a redoubling of some security protocols to address the things Prigozhin exploited. He already neutered the "private" military as a whole. I'd wager any of those people find themselves a bit more in the line of fire than the average grunt, if for no other reason than they've proven to be effective, but more likely since their loyalty was questioned. His fury at Prigozhin is one thing, but some of that has to be directed internally, and that is where the real precarity lies. The only widely-held tenet that I believe is that Russian elites are both terrified and furious. I'd expect a level of infighting that amounts to a second front in the war, one that Putin will attempt to shrewdly play (but, likely fail).

    7. Putin is in conflicts he probably won't lose, at least in the traditional sense, but cannot win either. He can't win Ukraine, and he can't win the elites back. So, his clock is ticking, and all the Western celebratory reporting on Prigozhin's tiff, his health, etc. skew our perceptions without accelerating it. Russia is weak, for sure, and Putin is relying on his nuclear threat more than ever. However...it's fucking Russia. Throwing millions of casualties at a front line has been how they've won wars going back centuries. The rest of the world needs to somehow embrace the fact that Putin isn't going anywhere, AND prepare for life after Putin (which may be far worse), AND support Ukraine without directly poking the bear. This whole scenario only plays to Putin's strengths, and the "threat" that Prigozhin represented only gives Putin an excuse to double down.
     
  2. Aetius

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    I don't know if Twitter stuff should still be in here since Musk turned it into a complete joke, but he is now rebranding Twitter as "X". He said a tweet shall now be known as "an X."

    It's pretty incredible just how terrible a businessman he is when he's not being handled by far more competent subordinates.
     
  3. dixiebandit69

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    So does this mean that X.com will lead to Twitter now?

    EDIT: Yup, it does.
     
  4. walt

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    I think he just enjoys seeing how people lose their frickin minds anytime he does, well, anything with the platform. Personally, I don't understand why. If he wants to run it into the ground, let him. One less fucking social media sewer that'll exist.
     
  5. Nettdata

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  6. Aetius

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  7. Crown Royal

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    The one and only thing I was hoping for out of him owning it was the for Twitter to end completely. If he simply destroyed it, he would be greatest hero alive. Twitter is the equivalent of shitting your pants, sitting down in it in the hot sun for ten hours, then shitting them again. It’s worse than SNL. Worse than AIDS.
     
  8. Revengeofthenerds

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    it's a slow trainwreck. I was also hoping for the same, and that appears well on the way. Also looks like it might take him down with it (at least his public reputation), so bonus points?
     
  9. walt

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    If he bought and destroyed Facebook after, I’d propose a statue to be erected in his honor.
     
  10. Crown Royal

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    The combination of those two social media platforms destroyed countless lives and families who objectively did not deserve it. I could not care less for anybody who actually likes Facebook or Twittter, I don’t give a single shit about anyone who would lose their job working for them.

    And while we’re on that topic: do people honestly believe that hollow eyed reptile-in-a-dork’s-skin should be forgiven for what he’s done because he competed in a NoGi competition? Does he honestly think he’s cool? The fuckstick who trapped one fifth of the planet in a cybernetic prison, sold their personal information off for profit and will never — EVER— allow anyone to be released from it?
     
  11. Juice

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    It's very telling that Jack Dorsey's attitude completely changed now that he isn't legally obligated to be a company man.
     
  12. walt

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  13. Binary

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    I have no great love for Twitter or Facebook and think they're generally evil. I don't care if they both get run out of business.

    But it's hard for me to imagine that the world will end up a better place because of it. How are they not going to just get replaced by another Social Media Empire? TikTok is feeding data to the Chinese government. Mastodon is probably the best shot a less-evil social media empire but it's never going to make enough critical mass because of its very nature. The void of Twitter and Facebook is just going to be another multi-billion dollar shit company.

    Like I said, I couldn't possibly give the slightest whiff of a shit about these assholes. I'm just not optimistic that anything will change.
     
  14. Juice

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    A national data privacy law would be a good start. Just not a bureaucratic mess like GDPR.
     
  15. Binary

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    Sure, but how is Musk tanking Twitter going to bring that about?

    Guess my comment is more directed at Crown and walt's statements. It would absolutely be funny to me if one or both companies folded, but my feeling is that any social media company of that size is inherently awful. It's in the business model. You're monetizing human connections. Doing that in a growth model cannot end in any way except scraping profits in increasingly terrible ways, and the network effect demands that a few companies will become the central players. So without external action (like a data privacy law, or people reducing their social media consumption), one company crashing and burning is nothing more than a temporary amusement while someone else takes their place.

    I would gleefully watch both Musk and Zuck set fire to big chunks of their fortunes, though.
     
  16. Nettdata

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    Agree with this outlook.

    I think people are stupid, by and large, and love a good social train wreck, so will wilfully go out of their way to expose themselves to social media.

    I hate it.

    As I get older and older, I find myself actively becoming more and more sick and tired of this hyped up need to be overly social to all the people. Fuck that.

    I have a small handful of really close friends, and share fun things with them directly. And here, which is kind of a social network but not a good one... it's just old, familiar, with "people" that I've come to relate to in a personal but mostly anonymous manner.

    But it's not just social media... so much of the "news" or other consumed media is gossip, either political bullshit or "oh my God Becky look who is sleeping around on who and this is the shit that those two are fighting for in their divorce!" Who. The. Fuck. Cares.

    But we feed into the cycle, and it just keeps getting worse and worse.
     
  17. Juice

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    Perhaps the more chaotically they're operated and negative the public perception is, lawmakers could spur into acting instead of using said platforms to demand that, "something must be done."

    I don't have faith in their altruism. We can only hope they do it by accident.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Revengeofthenerds

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    it says a lot that I get most of my "news" from here actually. Turns out it's insanely easy to tune out the MSM. I'm on facebook specifically for the running groups, non alcoholic beverage groups, and a few close friends I share pictures with. If it went away I would still talk with these people through other means, and consume the content through other means. I browse reddit for the NBA and NFL content, but again, if it went away, who cares?

    I'm also roughly three weeks out from my formal marathon training block, which will take 4 months and tire the shit out of me. I'm a bit looking forward to it giving me less time to spend elsewhere, like online. Then I do the marathon, have a month break, and start my 4 month training block for the london marathon.
     
  19. Rush-O-Matic

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    As pointed out in subsequent posts, any social location on the internet has people, which are the problem. All you have to do is read comments section on ANY website - it doesn't have to be mega-sized platform like Facebook, Twitter . . . YouTube. Your local news channel website or newspaper, the chat feed on Score*, hell even this messageboard.

    *Last night, I was not home yet, so when I tuned on my local sports channel to hear the Braves' game, and it was in rain delay, I checked Score to see what was up. This chatter would be from three groups of people: Braves fans, Red Sox fans, and gamblers. The game was in Boston, so at game time people were like, what's going on? There were DOZENS of comments that were from "local area fans" who "guaranteed" they had just checked the weather, it was rain and lightning for "at least 4 hours" and "no chance" there'd be a game last night. I just ignored it. Official Twitter about 45 minutes later said "proposed start time is 8:50." Why would people do that? Because people suck. That's not Musk or Zuckerberg's fault.
     
  20. Crown Royal

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    Every day that goes by reminds me how perhaps mountain men are the ones who got it right. They don’t join groups, they look out only for their own and basically the only stress in their life involves the need to get by (not to mention avalanches). I’m jealous of that.