Meanwhile in Brazil.... All fun and quarantine games until someone gets a sea shell 150 mph to the titty
Wait, I missed this earlier. How are they coming up with 6 million dead in the US? Given the mortality rate of roughly 2%, which is based off known cases (of which there are likely way more having existed than known) this would require every single person in the US to catch it with basically no exceptions. Even then you're almost certainly way overestimating the mortality rate to get to a number like this, before you even consider that no one under 15 is dying from it. I'm sure we're going to be looking at a lot more than the current 500 dead before this is through, but how the hell do you get to 6 million?
The only way that works is if they are way under-reporting the mortality rate, which I don't see what the benefit of lying about it would be. Generally speaking, they want people to be more cautious, not less. Besides, it's kind of hard to cover up something like that after it hits everywhere around the globe. You have to really put the tin foil hat on to think every government is colluding together on such a massive conspiracy. The worst I've seen is 1 million dead, which is a lot of fucking people obviously, but even that is a model assuming people just bumble around taking no precautions at all. Not inadequate precautions, just flat out doing nothing. I'm sure Nett got that from someone who knows what they are talking about, so I'm curious where they came up with it. Which makes some sense as people can die from all kinds of things if they can't get any care, but I read that as coronavirus deaths.
It's amazing what hospitals can do, and we completely take them for granted. You know how you hear people can die from an infection if left untreated? Well a lot of people are about to learn the hard way how true that is. A tourniquet can stop you from bleeding to death if you get to a hospital quickly, which is why every first responder has several within arm's reach at all times. Think you're gonna get to a doctor quickly if those hospitals are filled beyond capacity and they're triaging people in the halls? I feel for every mother who just had her baby right now. My youngest was born as Harvey was coming into town -- small potatoes by today's comparison -- and the maternity ward received so many evacuees they kicked us out and sent us home. My son was in the NICU, some jaundice, issues with feeding, but they decided we were equipped to help him at home and return later because they needed the space that desperately (we returned about a week later, and he stayed another week). So if one of the largest hospitals in a very large city, which has a ton of hospitals and some of the best medical care in the nation, was overwhelmed under those circumstances to where they were literally kicking people out who still needed care... just imagine how it is right now. Then imagine how it's gonna be in a week.
Goldman Sachs' analysis pegged it at 3 million dead if we treat this like the flu, aka just go about our business and let the old people take it on the chin. They did however say there would be significant overlap between those who died from the virus and those who would have died in the near future anyway ('cause they old and/or diseased), so do the moral calculus on that as you will.
Personal case #2 for me. Close friend of ours (she officiated our wedding) has been feeling like shit so she did the Facetime style doc appt and based on what they saw, they're pretty certain she has it but due to the fact her breathing is ok, they're not testing her. Just told her to take Tylenol, fluids, rest and to call back if her breathing changes. If it gets real bad, head to the ER. Unfortunately, she's ~57 and a smoker. Not good. Thankfully we haven't seen her in person in over a month.
NYC is already converting some locations into massive makeshift field hospitals. Shit is going to get nuts. I feel like they are going to have to take on a bunch of volunteers/temps to help with some of the layman stuff, but I don't know how feasible that would actually be. I mean, lowering standards is generally not a good thing when it comes to healthcare, but it might be better than just doing nothing for a lot of people, which is where we're headed. Of course, people who don't really know what they're doing can just spread it even faster and then the situation gets even worse. It really underscores the importance of slowing the spread. A lot of people catching it is bad. All at the same time is way, way worse.
The masses won't realize this until there are pictures and videos of what's actually happening. Until then, it's a thought exercise. We can show them charts and numbers about exponential growth, but they won't get it until they actually see it. Think of the Boston Marathon Bombing. Which sounds worse to you, 3 dead, or this: Spoiler
It truly sucks that we have so little information on this virus. One of the things I've read is that he average time between infection and showing symptoms is 5 days. That's average, but it can be up to 14 days. I bailed out of Las Vegas 5 days ago and I've been very careful with my interactions with folks. Lifelong friends I've avoided shaking hands with or giving hugs. I just tell them "Remember where I just came from" and wave at them from several feet away. That sucks when seeing people that are more family to you then your actual family. But, I would never forgive myself if I was carrying the virus and infected anyone, friend or stranger. So I need to keep this up for another 9 days or so just to make sure I'm not contagious. On the plus side, there are zero cases in my remote north Idaho home. I hope it stays that way and that I'm not the Typhoid Mary who introduced it to the area. I just want everything to go back to normal.
So much this. When shit ramps up and gets bad, where are people going to go for help? Current mortality rates are taking into account the effectiveness of the health care system. If 10% of the front line staff are dead, more are quarantined, and there are no beds/ventilators left, and more and more people are getting sick... what do you think the impact on mortality rates are? They sure as fuck aren't going to stay the same... they are going to rise. What is that number? Nobody knows, but very smart people who are tasked with figuring that shit out are fucking scared... that should tell you something. That's what "flatten the curve is all about". Keep the rate of contagion within the effective bounds of the health care system... medical supplies and staff. In reality, the current mortality rates are pretty well the best case scenario... enjoy them while they last. There's a reason NY is building emergency hospitals and they are begging SpaceX to ramp up production of ventilators.... it's not all some /r/wallstreetbets play for some tendies... it's people's lives.
Do you know, or are you comfortable divulging, the kind of timeline we’re looking at for the hospitals to start seeing those kind of effects?
I have no idea. But I'd say some places are days, not weeks away. Other than New York, Seattle is the place I'd probably be looking at... huge numbers, growing fast, and a stupid population that doesn't seem to understand the social isolation part of it.
Uhm.... fuck! In Madrid, the morgues are so overwhelmed they started putting the bodies in an ice rink at a local mall.
Yeah I remember as a little kid Miami having to do something similar involving hundreds of cocaine murders. But that was an ice cream truck. Not an fucking ice rink. Stay home. Stay safe. Let’s keep everybody’s grandparents alive. This is the Real Deal, like nothing anyone alive has contended with before. And nature always wins, especially the smallest kinds.
If you want to know what the mortality rate looks like when the system is overwhelmed, the data is out there. Italy’s at something like 64,000ish diagnosed cases and 6,000 or so dead. Not quite 1%, right? On the one hand there are probably a ton of missed diagnoses which would shift the fatality rate, but on the other it also doesn’t take on preventable deaths that are falling through the cracks due to an over saturated system.
yeah, you may want to revisit those numbers... it's not 1% it's more like 10% https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ And that's with them totally shut down.