https://www.propublica.org/article/...many-people-are-in-the-hospital-with-covid-19 Decent article describing issues with hospital numbers and disparate community spread.
I’ve been trying to figure out a way to reply to this that would have a decent question or addition to the topic, but I don’t know if I can. Basically, I think you’re correct about these two points, but it’s not just a choice and fear - our state is openly saying to use telemedicine and to not go to the hospital unless you’re having trouble breathing. I guess I’m asking - is this common advice, nationwide? What are your thoughts on this, since it’s a reason that testing will remain low because of it?
I don't know if it's common. I think it jives with the nationwide advice of stay at home as much as possible. We've long understood that testing needs to be more accessible than existing medical facilities. So, I think this is for the best. I also think we'll see changes in the death rates for other things as a result of this and we'll spend months trying to figure out if the stay at home campaign made certain things worse or better. Also, the absolute worst thing for a hospital right now is a large influx of uninfected folks getting exposed to this, or at worst, just getting in the way.
Just found out a friend was involved in a very serious accident yesterday. Two idiots were racing, one jumped the median and hit her head on. He died, she somehow didn't. Paramedics told her that unless she absolutely must, don't go to the hospital. They sent her home to recover. She had serious health issues before that. They also told her to quarantine because she was being attended to by the paramedics and none of them were wearing masks.
Speaking of funerals, looks like there's gonna be some more of them. What do you get when you cross a busy kentucky church with some pissed off kentuckians? Nails spread across all the entrances and cops issuing mandatory 14 day quarantine notices and documenting license plates, apparently.
Aside from the confirmed cases concern, there is a worry about food supply on the demand side. Ie, there are seasonal crops with no/few pickers, and if there are supply chain interruptions, there will be shortages. Happy Apocalypse, y'all!
Hey look, I will be the first to admit, I cannot explain the data or corroborate the veracity of the data. I am merely pointing out a lot of information that doesn't square with the rest of the information out there. This guy is going deep into the reported death data, infection data and hospital census data behind the AHCA paywall to do some thorough reporting. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author He is finding a lot of data on actual hospital usage provided by AHCA (and in some cases quoting Governor Cuomo's NY figures) being far below expected demand per UW's IHME model that has been used and revised several times along the way. He has a lot of healthcare providers chiming in stating that nurses/doctors are being furloughed or shifted. Data on usage of hospitals in NYC that would lead you to believe either people are dying at home of some of the modeling assumptions are still way off. I will be the first to admit that the infection data is very troubling. The lack of testing is troubling but you can't ignore this data coming out as well. There seems to be another layer to this whole thing that isn't being reported on. The example of field hospitals moving is only one of many out there right now. https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...loughing-workers-in-response-to-covid-19.html I can understand the layoffs of non-clinical people but even those involved in non-emergent care? Surely, some of those doctors and nurses can be of some use during a pandemic? I would have assumed it was all hands on deck for this type of thing? Finally, I don't disagree, 20k deaths is a lot but not unheard of. In the 2017-2018 flu season, the CDC assumes over 60k deaths that year from the flu.
I've seen people discuss / complain / make Twitter posts about how we won't learn anything from this, and in a year everything will go back to the way it was. I hope if anything, people are developing better habits about washing their hands, staying home when they have a fever, and not coughing in people's faces. Maybe that'll stick. And that 60k will be cut in half. (And, maybe people will start using their seat belts, too, and the 13k preventable deaths from not buckling up will be cut, too, but I guess that's a different thread.)
"Information". Lol. AHCA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Health_Care_Act_of_2017 The irony is killing me. I dunno what AHCA is, or what data it has. If it's higher quality than what the 6600 hospitals around the US are feeding the HHS response, then there'll be some lawsuits a'comin'. Not really seeing anything worth commenting on in the twitter feed. "NC Facebook group has 21k members". "Sweden has different death rates". "Hospitals eager to admit COVID patients". Yay and/or so? The hospital furloughs aren't surprising. The Spartanburg Regional system is in my hometown. They are responding to a few dozen cases in hospital staff. Anyone they can lay off, anyone that isn't able to support the COVID patients, anyone they can keep out of the building they are. Why would you continue to have a bunch of Physical therapists come to work in an environment where COVID has already hit your staff? That particular hospital isn't overwhelmed, they already have confirmed cases in their staff and they are trying to prepare for an onslaught. What exactly is the point you're trying to make here: that things aren't as bad as they seem? 60k deaths from the flu OVER A YEAR, compared to 2k deaths a DAY, and 22k dead since February 28th: https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily By your math, flu kills 5k/month, and this has already killed 10k a month. Flu has 39 MILLION cases, COVID may have as many as 1.3 million cases, tops. Also, ignoring the massive campaigns, vaccinations and coordinated public health response that the flu gets year after year.
you’re right and that’s terrifying. I just text my mother in law about that and her response, verbatim, “I’m sure they’ll have something figured out.” my wife just told me I’m glad you know how to hunt. Ha ha ha.... fuck
AHCA - Specific to Florida, Agency of Health Care Administration. They perform census data on hospitals. An example in NY State. First is the IHME model data, second is the NY state reporting by Cuomo of actual conditions. Spoiler Spoiler Another IHME model prediction, this time Alabama. Currently show 457 hospitalized state-wide. What is the likelihood of that number matching this model output (from previous model revision) in 4 days? Spoiler Florida- https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida This is the model estimates (latest revision). Here are the actuals - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429 2600 hospitalizations currently, model expected 4600 needed. Downndirty, to your point, do I think it is overblown? Yes, I do. I think it is time to reassess the ground truth and square our models up to that. Europe has already started this process. https://apnews.com/f68fa688b76c2853d22a3c765042f066
From the interagency: 3 in 10 are reporting loss of job, income or hours as a result of COVID 19. Kaiser Family Foundation Survey 45% reporting an impact of mental health, same survey. VA is reporting roughly 3x the normal volume of mental health assessments. SAMSA's Disaster Distress Call is seeing 300X increase in call volume, 900X from a year ago. DOL & Harvard: 16.8 million or 11% of workforce have filed initial unemployment claims in the last 3 weeks. 5.7 million projected to lose health insurance by the end of June, 1.5 million already lost it. The economic impact of this is so fucking severe, it's terrifying. Weirdly, and positively veteran suicides are at historic lows. VA reported that they average 20 suicides/day, and they are down to zero.
It's only one datapoint, but I know a radiologist in New York City who has been reassigned to the medicine floors during this.
About a week ago I had an appointment with my psychiatrist, over the phone. Phone call was scheduled for 2:00, he ended up calling close to 6. I'm doing fine -- I actually starting cutting back my medicine in a significant way when this all hit in order to ration it out if supplies ran out and/or I could get to the pharmacy, I'm now at about 1/3rd of what I was taking with no ill effects. He said it is absolutely horrible though. Getting fired is a major triggering factor in mental health issues, which is already going to be extremely high with a global pandemic and all. Combine that with their health insurance being tied to their jobs and now those people who are doing worse off than they already were suddenly can't afford their medication. He sounded like he was doing much worse than I was. Honestly that 45% number seems low. In regard to veteran suicides, my gut is that it's the whole peace in the panic thing. I'd always told my wife I'm at my best when things are absolutely at their worst. Either my brain was re-wired after my brain surgery or I just was so impacted by it, but emotions are always more complicated to deal with than purely logistics and getting through something. I'm great at prioritizing and getting shit done, it's when I have to cross reference that to do list against other people's desires that I encounter a problem. Someone doesn't have a pulse? Easy, I don't have to apologize if I break her ribs while doing chest compression now. For veterans who have been in war, I'm guessing right now is going to be similar, because it's now a streamlines "just prioritize" environment. Also, now people are counting on them again for things. They're counting on them to not get them sick. To stay at home. To wash their damn hands.
Meat companies are closing. I, personally, don't think we're very far from an unpleasant period during which food is scarce. Our grocery store is barely keeping anything on the shelves. I don't know why, I don't know if people are getting there right after the trucks and keeping the store empty, but our local store is unsettling to look at. https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...y-is-perilously-close-to-a-shortage-ceo-warns
The news I was expecting about my mom passing came yesterday. Thanks for the kind thoughts you repped me - we’re idiots, but we’re good idiots. Interestingly the test results for COVID for her came back negative. The staff at the nursing home think it’s a false negative because she had symptoms consistent with the virus, but it could very well have been the “regular “ flu. Perhaps just unfortunate timing. Due to restrictions on gathering, we can’t have a wake, or a mass, or a funeral. Attending the burial will likely be me, one dude from the nursing home and a guy with a shovel. Bizarrely, when talking to relatives I was told my great grandmother died in the Spanish flu outbreak 100 years ago. I always knew my grandmother was an orphan but didn’t know why. I also found out that my cousin has been diagnosed, through testing and symptoms, with COVID . He’s gotta be pushing 350 lbs, so it’s going to be dicey.
There was an article recently that said the false negative rate for the test could be as high as 30%.
See... THIS is what you get when you don’t pray hard enough: https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virgi...acked-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/amp/ ....my Irony-O-Meter just exploded.
I'm just glad we are finally reaching nut-cutting time. We are going to open up the economy and find out whats what, Either we melted down our society and civil liberties on bad intel (people will need to answer for it) or we have a road map to understand what needs to happen in future outbreaks. I am reserving judgement for now, as more hard data and less model comes to light, the answer will be pretty clear.
I think two more big waves, at least. First one in about 1-2 weeks, when all the idiots who attended church on easter need hospital care. Then another massive, prolonged one another 2-3 after the economy opens back up. I think we are about a third to halfway through this. I don't think they'll attempt to close everything again, I think they'll just let people die. I hope I am wrong.