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Coronavirus: Miles away from ordinary.

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Juice, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. downndirty

    downndirty
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    https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

    Hopkins rolled out a new one yesterday, by county: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map It's been buggy.

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Some jurisdictions are reporting cases that are not confirmed by testing. The big one, of course is NYC reporting 3700+ deaths that didn't occur in hospitals. We should see some massive leaps in counts as some jurisdictions report cases and deaths as confirmed without waiting for testing. There's some debate on how to accept/confirm these numbers, so that might be adding to a delay. Ditto on cases confirmed by insurance coding.

    This is the point in the event where we are firmly out of the initial phase. The numbers are going to jump wildly due to:
    -fragmented jurisdictional reporting (some places will just rely on testing, others will allow docs, etc.). Each place can report differently, and that will continue, some with high accuracy and some with low.
    -testing capacity only fully covering small areas with tiny outbreaks. So, it's just not likely you can blanket test an area well enough to control an outbreak on a scale larger than perhaps a single office.
    -virus behavior stops tracking early, small samples (possible presence of new strains). In other words, the velocity of the spread stops being easy to track...some places will go from 0-10,000 cases in a matter of hours, some of them will take weeks, with ostensibly similar mitigation measures.
    -system stress: for a city morgue to process 10,000 bodies in 2 months is insane, and they are going to focus precious resources on that, as opposed to reporting and data collection.

    Again, when we go from thousands to hundreds of thousands, the whole data and reporting game gets a little different. I think the point of no return is somewhere between 10-30 million actual cases. We're likely just shy of 2m right now. When we hit the point of no return, the probability flips from "containment can avoid exposure to most Americans" to "it's likely you will at least be exposed to it".

    This is the bumpy part of the ride, folks.
     
  2. Aetius

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  3. downndirty

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    I think the number we are currently operating with is 31k, if that helps.
     
  4. downndirty

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    Better way of estimating actual cases is to multiply the death count by a number between 43 and 48, depending on how pessimistic you are. So, we're roughly 1.5m cases right now.

    The good news is the total dead projection is revised down to around 1 million...if that counts as good news.

    The other good news is the growth is no longer directly exponential, it's polynomial. So, instead of one exponential curve, we have 56 curves all growing at separate rates that may or may not have a relationship with one another.
     
  5. Kubla Kahn

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    Did I just shit myself?

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    Ohio to start reopening May 1st

    In completely totally unrelated news Ohio's unemployment fund expected to be insolvent by June.
     
  6. Crown Royal

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    Just call me Topher

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    Pushing all our chips forward in hopes of a miracle, are we?
     
  7. Revengeofthenerds

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    browns are used to playing in a stadium with no fans. They’ll be fine
     
  8. Juice

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    Someone here predicted drive-in movies would make a come-back and they were right. I grew up in a town with one of the 3 drive-ins in Connecticut and they just raised over $20K in less than 24 hours against a requested $7600 to fix it up.
     
  9. Crown Royal

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    Just call me Topher

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    We go to them every summer, but there’s no “Drive” in “Drive-In” anymore. Now it’s more akin to football tailgating, with people bringing couches in trucks, Bluetooth speakers, coolers of beer and propane grills. Nobody sits in their cars anymore. It’s a good time when a horrible virus isn’t flying around.
     
  10. dixiebandit69

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    Greg Abbott just said he wants to reopen Texas by the 27th.
     
  11. downndirty

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    Sure, there's room for all those corpses in Texas.

    My library in MD just said they'd be closed til June 8th.
     
    #1611 downndirty, Apr 17, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2020
  12. xrayvision

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    These fucking simpletons don't seem to grasp the concept that if the numbers spike even worse than the first wave, this will have all been for nothing.
     
  13. Nettdata

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    That's the ultimate, "here, hold my beer".
     
  14. Revengeofthenerds

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    I thought he was gonna go very industry specific with a slow rollout? Sorry only was able to catch bits and pieces of it, kids running around

    Edit* info on how they’re gonna roll out. Taking it place by place, focused on the needs and problems of each particular area. Way it should be imo
     
    #1614 Revengeofthenerds, Apr 17, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
  15. Crown Royal

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    How to keep your finances in these hard times: how about an armed, daytime home invasion on a suburban American family while everyone else is at home?

    Now one is dead, the other is charged with his murder LOL you guys and your weird criminal accountability laws. These guys weren’t even hard up, they were car salesman and showed up in a Lexus:



    ...tell me something: Isn’t a hanging star spangled banner on the front of a house basically the red lantern for everybody to know that the homeowner(s) have guns?
     
  16. Juice

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    I can’t tell which part of this you’re taking issue with here.
     
  17. Misanthropic

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    For reference, I live 20 minutes from this nursing home, and I’ve been by it many times. 6 days ago my mom died of COVID in a nursing home.

    And I can’t entirely disagree with you. I think many people would object to you deciding it’s okay for their loved ones to die. But having spent the last two years visiting my mother on a weekly basis, it was glaringly obvious that many of those residents were so far gone it was doing no one any favors keeping them going. I felt like those facilities view them as human ATMs. Keep them breathing and you get a monthly check from the government or a relative. Not all the residents were that far gone, but many were.
     
  18. Rush-O-Matic

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    That is definitely not what I was saying. I would not want to decide that for anyone else. I know there will some tragic losses, but I think other losses are more humane, and some families will be grateful.
     
  19. toytoy88

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    I knew it was just a matter of time up here before the natives started getting restless. One sixty degree sunny day and there were a couple of hundred out holding "DO NOT COMPLY" signs.

    Morons. This is a tourist town. No one likes the tourists. Tourists also may very well carry 'rona. By all means, let's open the area back up so it can be over run with disease carrying tourists.
     
  20. Revengeofthenerds

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