Speaking of, just checking in here: What's your current estimate of anticipated deaths from COVID-19 (At one point, roughly a month ago you stated 2MM)? What is your current anticipation of complete infection (at one point you said almost all Americans by sometime in May)? If everyone is infected by May, is that total deaths/virus burn out by June-ish? What is the current hospitalization rate, based on your early models, is it 10% still?
Let’s see what those wacky foreigners are up to these days: ...fun fact: Michigan has 500 more COVID deaths than Canada. Let’s see how it plays out for these fine, snowman-physique folk.
Still working on a cure so we can share it with you pompous, heckling jag-offs. We may have an inordinate amount stupid, but be glad you usually get to import the better things made in America. And then send us Justin Bieber. Fucking assholes.
We've gone from exponential to polynomial growth. So, instead of one growth curve for the entire country not on lockdown, we're looking at 56 curves, based on how the adherence to the lockdown is going and a whole bunch of other factors. Our current estimates vary wildly based on the predictions around mitigation measures. So, there's not a single estimate, but dozens done at local, state, regional levels. Last numbers we compiled still had a 46% asymptomatic infection rate, and assumed 1.5% death rate. We're still working on the long-term disabled/affected rate, but for simplicity's sake, say it mirrors the death rate at 1.5%. Hospitalization rate is way down, because people simply don't want to go to the hospital...we just don't know what that will do to the death rate. So, we're at about 40,000 dead right now. It takes about 3 weeks to die from this. We think we're sitting at 1.9 million actual cases. So, in the next 3 weeks, we'll see another 28,500 die from this based on the cases we have right now (assuming the spread magically stops). For the record, we're still losing more than this, at about 1700 deaths per day (if that rate holds constant, it'll be 35,000, some folks die faster). In that same 3 weeks, assuming R0 of 3.4, we'll see that 1.9m become 6.4m cases. So, keeping that same rate through June 1, we'll be looking at 21m cases, over 400,000 dead. Assuming 46% asymptomatic, we're looking at 11m (roughly) getting sick, and if that's 1 in 10, 1.1m needing to be hospitalized. Again, we know the human behavior factor isn't easy to predict. I think the 10% rate is far too high, but that's one of the largest variations in our data. From there, it gets whacky because I simply don't believe we'll have the same mitigation measures in place after June 1st. Total infection? Depends on how long the lockdown lasts. Could be as early as July if it goes back to exponential (unlikely), but this wave of the outbreak could last years. Worse, we could see new more virulent strains emerge. Typically, as new strains emerge they are less deadly, but spread more easily. Lot of wishful thinking abounds, but there's not a likely medical intervention coming online in the next few months, certainly not a vaccine. Maybe a successful antiviral, but those trials take time. When we get to the 1 in 15 or 1 in 10 mark in terms of cases to population, I think we're looking at the point of no return, where we will all get exposed to it at least once. I could see total infection happening before fall as pretty likely, maybe September. Easy way to play around with the numbers: R0 of 2.8 to 3.4. One death indicates between 43 and 48 cases. Case spread of 18-27 days (I used 21), but the time it takes current cases to be multiplied by R0. So, from now til May 9th, 1.9m cases will become somewhere between 5.3m or 6.4m cases. Divide that by something between 43 and 48 to get the total death count.
Apparently a lot of those stories used old photos of the beaches: https://www.facebook.com/13ONYOURSIDE/videos/879149695931347/
If that's the true picture of what's happening then I think people are behaving fine. Good on them. Shame on whoever is posting old pictures.
Wouldn't surprise me if it was a good mix of both. Also, "beaches open peacefully" doesn't get many page views. Saw on the news about 2 hours ago them doing a live shot on one of the beaches though and there were an absolute shitload of people there. Of course, the reporter wasn't wearing a facemask. Gotta get that audio loud and clear.
I spent 2 hours this week talking about this with one of the pandemic leaders in Canada (Dan Coombs) about the work that we're doing to help support this, and to try and help support @downndirty in his official capacity. This is him: https://theprovince.com/news/local-...ions/wcm/e3bd765f-3737-4e4c-8d86-2717b7d541e2 The dude has some seriously interesting information on what's going on, etc, that will never make it to the mass media. If you want to understand the data issues, he's got a youtube video on doing the spread calculations, where he breaks down just how fucking hard it is to model. The big question, just like everyone here is talking about, is the economy... when and how can we turn it back on. Well, we can't model the economy... we can't figure out when or how to get the economy back to work... it's just too complex and impossible and would take decades and still be wrong. But what we CAN do, is help individual companies make the decision of when to get back to work. This, we think, is a solid step towards helping turn the economy back on. We're now taking all the localized COVID health data we can get (both publicly and privately available), and are working with large corporations to tie in their data. We are now working through a classification system such that we can determine things like can they work from home effectively, when they can't, what kind of physical distancing etc can take place at the workplace, etc, and comparing that with any local health information. Kind of like, if you're a logger in BC in a region that has no health issues reporting, then go ahead, work. If you're a bank in downtown NYC in a "red zone", stay closed. But if you're that same bank in the middle of nowhere, then stay open and practice safe social distancing. We've already got a number of large companies on board with this, and sharing data... and the best part is, we're starting to see data that is WAY more plentiful and earlier than health data. Think about this... if we can tap into a corporation's HR data, we know where they live, where they work, who calls in sick, as soon as it happens. We even get the "health" data from people that never end up going to see a doctor, never mind get admitted to the hospital. If they see a big spike in "I've got the flu" that is geographically localized, they can act on it... even if it's "get them tested ASAP", and not necessarily COVID. We can then get a very early signal as to what's going on, well before any ICU data comes available. This may not help small companies like mom and pop shops, but we took our inspiration from the national meat packing company that made the call to shut down it's facilities in a couple of States. Well, we're now looking at trying to empower those types of companies, essential service or not, to make smarter, more location-based decisions based on a model that uses many different data sources. Never mind that we've already built out some tools in the last couple of weeks that are better than what FEMA has now.
That explains a lot in fantastic detail, I just wish everyone in North America could read this or something paraphrasing it. Because everything about it says patience (and distance) is a virtue, and this clearly isn’t something that is going to end in two weeks. People just do not want to listen to things like logistics or “We don’t completely understand this virus yet.” An era where to a lot of people think that lifestyle is more important than life itself. Yes, God has thrown us a curveball and I hate being out of work like everyone else, but I’ll take this disaster over an asteroid or super solar flare. At least for now. Your highlights can wait, because for the first time in history married people are pretty much the only humans who are fucking.
To be fair, the second FEMA starts openly collecting information on people's names, jobs, and addresses is the second some gun-nut gets convinced we're all about to be sent "to the camps," and shoots up a branch office.
I should have been clear that what we’re working on (part of it anyway) is for the private use of companies, where they use the private data they already have and use the public data we’re collecting and models we’re developing. Their private HR data stays private, with the option to share back anonymized data.
That video is the youtube equivalent of the Movie "I hope they serve beer in hell". Some things just should never leave the cutting room floor. In other words, there is 3:20 minutes I will never get back.
I know I speak for myself and at least Rush when I say “Skin these bastards alive”: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5537077 Live Nation.... Ticketmaster... you have been the bane of my fucking existence since I was sixteen years old. I could dunk every single one of your executives’ legs in salt water and masturbate while I watch sharks gnaw their legs into stumps. Fuck you and die.
I’d like to throw the airlines in there as well. Refusing all refunds for cancelled trips and flights and offering only credit for 1 year from the date of the original purchase. They keep our money interest free.