I haven't seen any evidence that we're overcounting deaths, and plenty of evidence that we're undercounting them. In any event, we would have to be overcounting by nearly an order of magnitude for the numbers to line up with a 0.1% infection fatality rate.
It’s great that the fatality rate is lower than projected. This doesn’t mean that we’ve been overreacting nationally though- consider the implication for the reason why the rate was lowered- this thing has been spreading unbelievably fast. If the flu was spreading at this rate people would be alarmed. That being said, this isn’t the flu. It is an unknown that is at least as deadly, but that we don’t fully understand yet. It’s possible that people are suffering damage to organs (lungs, hearts, livers, etc.) due to the mechanisms of the virus and the cells it targets. And regardless of the true fatality rate, if it saturated dense populations then there will be unnecessary deaths. Look at Italy- that situation fucking sucks, and isn’t a hypothetical.
Not really, judging by my reaction to it. EVERYBODY needs to see that. That shit in Harrisburg? They should have a wall of shame at the ICU and not let a single one of those cunts in. They brought their fucking KIDS with them.
So it's spreading more quickly than anticipated Less deadly than anticipated More people have antibodies or are asymptomatic than anticipated It's unclear that a full national quarantine and shutdown was helpful or necessary - some places late or without full quarantine have seen far less destruction At what point do was assess the situation differently and develop a workable solution that doesn't include allowing the country to keep burning? The quarantine was meant to flatten the curve, not stop all infection.
Experts are assessing and reassessing the data constantly. Their recommendations are that it's still to early to do any widespread reopening. Again, I don't see the evidence that the infection fatality rate is significantly below the 1-1.3% estimate we're currently operating with.
And the curve is flattened because of the actions that were taken... if you remove those actions, the curve doesn't stay flat... This is a very interesting read: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
So each of those bullets is not true. 1. It's spreading more slowly, because we think the countermeasures are working. I say think, because we don't have the data to confirm 100%. That's how science works: I either can control 100% of the variables and can be sure, or I can't and so I have to express those reservations. That's a feature, not a bug. 2. It's not less deadly than anticipated. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 If you divide confirmed cases by deaths, it's at .05%. That's worse than we thought. Our models have this still at somewhere around 1-1.5% death rates but we can't confirm 100% of the actuals, so we are again, not 100% sure. 3. I have not seen a single credible report that says more people "have antibodies" than anticipated. Asymptomatic is still around 50%, but we don't have the testing to confirm "asymptomatic for how long". Sure, you get tested one day and you feel fine and you pop positive. Does that mean you are a false positive test? Dunno until we retest. Does that mean you are asymptomatic all the way to recovery? Dunno until we retest. Does that mean you have antibodies and are innately immune? Dunno til we test those too. 4. Pretending our options were A) shut down, or B) do nothing, literally no one worth listening to is saying the best option is to do nothing and let a new virus run rampant. Quarantine and shutting down is pandemic playbook, page 1. If anyone is saying it was "unclear" this was helpful or necessary: they are lying to you. We assess the data and situation daily. Hell, I've put in 14 hour days already on this, with plenty more days like that to come. You act like we are sitting on viable options that dont imperil millions, and threaten worse damage to our country. This is why the testing is so important: without it, we cant SEE the curve. The reality is there is no solution. We had our chance to contain it and we blew it. Now we are dealing with the next best set of options: distant (vaccines, drug batteries), unsafe (reopening), or continuing to quarantine (unpopular). This is no different than if you disregard your doctors advice: if you dont listen the first time, the next interventions are far worse. Ie, a diet is a hell of a lot less painful than heart surgery, and a lot more effective.
I absolutely understand how frustrating the shutdown is. In LA, a report came out stating that unemployment is around 50%. I haven't dug into the numbers to see how they are determining that number yet, but its obviously impactful nonetheless. The thing is, by its very nature a shutdown will seem unnecessary, as if it works then people will underestimate the impact of doing nothing, and if we reemerge and there is a second big wave people will complain that it was all for nothing. However, it bought us time and slowed down the curve, which means that even though there are economic ramifications we have likely saved lives. We don't really know enough to make informed decisions yet, and we were too slow to get the infrastructure in place to do so. All we can do is try to get our shit in gear and learn enough to know what the right decisions are- and not act rashly, as this isn't just a common cold. Here is a read I found interesting on potential modeling issues: https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/
I see stupid people. They don't know they're stupid. https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1251634131685052418
Well, it looks like gyms, hair salons, and barbers can open in Georgia by end of week. That should be interesting to watch.
“Death is inevitable” says a state representative. I wonder if a single pro-lifer will chime in on that. But I doubt it.
They also get to pile back into the churches again. I'm sure cases won't explode in a couple of weeks.