Oh okay I misread that, then. Unfortunately I think the public's tolerance for social distancing and not working is going to wane pretty soon as we are already seeing the signs of it. Are those factors baked into these predictions or would that require remodeling?
It's not a single model, it's dozens (maybe hundreds) depending on how we define parameters. So for example, we have a TN model that includes data from Google on how well folks are adhering to the stay at home orders. If we look at it at a regional level, or we remove the stay at home and revert back to "normal" movement, we'd adjust that model. So it's less about this order or that order and more about what we observe people to be actually doing.
I think I’m misreading in the same boat as Juice a few weeks ago they revised I think the Washington university model? down to a projected 60k. Was all over the news. With us knocking at the door of 50k and still at 2k plus it makes no sense unless the virus dies in the next few days. What are the time frames for the 500-1mill?
The time frame is the stickiest issue to project. I simply don't have confidence in the time estimates, so take that with an enormous grain of salt. That said, this can run it's course in as little as the next 90 days (catastrophically) or as long as the next 24 months (highly unlikely, would indicate an entirely new strain or set of strains). We'll start to see the daily death rate start to jump over the course of May and June from 1500/day we're seeing now, to upwards of 5-10k/day at some points. My kind of rough guess amidst all the predictions that I've seen from 50k dead to 500k dead, 3-6 months, assuming we have rolling quarantines and maintain countermeasures in place. I think 200k by August is really tame, and we'll likely exceed that. In a reactive posture, we will likely see it hit exponential growth again and without a national quarantine, I don't know how we will be able to derail it. Rough timeline of metrics: 50k now, probably closer to 75k by May 1. June 1, around 150k. July 1, 250k. August 1 350-400k, and September, 500k.
I don't know, the baseline competence required to listen to medical experts about medical issues is fairly low. Doug Ford did, hours before March Break was extended by two weeks, recommend that people go on their planned vacations. Thankfully he seems to have stopped listening to the "advisors" and "special interest" groups who were underplaying COVID.
I’m impressed in his ability to swallow ego and blast Trump, who he has been such a fanboy of his since his election. I mean, I still hate him for how much he and his rat-shit-eating government fucked up the schools in Ontario, and I don’t forgive easily so fuck him. But he’s done well with the pandemic.
And yet so many are failing it. His main redeeming quality right now is the fact that he's listening to medical suggestions, and is weathering the growing pressure by the people to relax them. He's making the hard, clinical calls, and sticking by them, and he's been doing it way earlier than he really had to... he's been proactive, not reactive, based on the data that he's had. So many other leaders are not doing this.
This as well. And it's not really "blast", it's more like not following along any more... he's got the game plan that is best for Ontarians (sp?) and he's following it. "We don't want them up here. They'll be kept out."
His short game right now seems to be taking a stance towards Ontario that a lot classic American Conservatives take towards their political game: stomp your own snakes and worry about your crew first. Without trying to steal shit you already sold to other people. I was GENUINELY worried at first, he’s never been a science-first type of person at all. This is a hard and welcome snap in the other direction. He just needs to tune out all his cabinet idiots buzzing in his ear.
To be fair, we elect genuine morons here in the States. Not just people who only seem like morons in comparison to others at their level.
Well, we’ve had some kooks. One of our best Prime Minister, Mackenzie-King claimed to be a medium who could communicate with both ghosts and cats. He’s on our $50 bill (or as you guys call it, the Red One). To counter, you guys had Strom Thurmond. That name speaks for itself.
Y'all remember Louisiana pastor tony snell -- he who got arrested after almost running over a protestor with a damn school bus, then got released from prison and immediately held a church service? Yeah looks like he might have the rona. Or as he likes to put it, "I tested positive for faith."
And impregnating their kids in the upstairs broom closet. While simultaneously laying down the longest Filibuster speech in history trying to derail the civil right bill. Tough love, Homes. That caused such an outrage that he was re-elected back to the Senate six more times in a row.
So apparently Juggalos can be added to the list of people who are smarter than the majority of the "leadership" in the US https://www.newsweek.com/insane-clown-posse-icp-gathering-juggalos-2020-canceled-coronavirus-1499837
They hold these in Ohio all the time I’ve been half tempted to go and just people watch while eating an 1/8th of mushrooms every 8 hours.
It has to be a people-watchers Shangri-La. I mean, just look how much potential entertainment can come from 45 minutes in a Waffle House.
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...plan-to-fight-nursing-home-outbreaks/2386556/ You guys were right, it looks like we didn't do enough, fast enough. In order to catch this we would have needed to not celebrate New Years? According to Cuomo we are finding COVID-related deaths going back in to December?
Not exactly according to Cuomo. It's according to the study. Which gives it more weight. And you're right. We knew before New Years, and should have reacted accordingly. The fact remains that we knew from the beginning, and had the opportunity to act at multiple points in order to avoid or at the very least greatly lessen the current catastrophe. Our country's reaction to COVID, or lack thereof, is a matter of established fact. And had we continued to give our experts the resources they need, and given our decision makers the experts they need, then there would be tens of thousands of fewer dead brothers and sisters, children and grandparents, doctors and nurses and first responders. I'd be shocked if we were even close to halfway through with this. If we had done something when we knew about it in December, things would be different. But we didn't, and now we get to explain to our grandchildren what movie theaters used to be like.