Since Trump constantly refers to Biden as "Crooked Joe Biden", Biden needs to start referring to Trump as "Convicted Felon Trump". Honestly, I love how Biden is starting to slap back at Trump. His endorsement of De Niro's comments is fucking hilarious. Still won't change the minds of the Cult of Trump, but I have to think/hope that at least some are swayed by this shit and will do the right thing when election time hits.
Oh... and my favourite part is that Trump is no longer allowed to enter Canada as a convicted felon. I wonder how many other countries have the same restriction?
Just ran across a thread in /r/conservative and it is mind blowing... https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/comments/1d4en0s/trump_found_guilty_on_all_34_charges/ The cult is strong.
Alito out here using excuses for flag flying that wouldn't get past a Margaritaville HOA https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/30/alito-scotus-flag-00160450 Who flies a flag that they have no idea what it means?
I don't think this is going to change very many minds. Assuming people aren't lying, polls generally show that economics is the issue of highest importance. I think anyone that might be swayed by Trump being convicted would have already swayed by one of the indictments. The group of people that would have seen a conviction as a tipping point in their voting behavior is probably pretty small.
Everything in this election is going to happen in the margins, so while this isn't going to generate a landslide for Biden all of a sudden, it may move things a little bit, and we'll take what we can get. The group most likely to be swung by this conviction are independents who don't follow the news. They tend to tune into elections pretty late, and "Trump is a convicted felon" is the kind of quick label that can break through that apathy/laziness. The other group that could be affected by this are the Republicans who really don't want to vote for Trump, but were going to hold their nose and do it anyway. For some of them, voting for a felon will be a bridge too far.
Yeah, but now Trump's not tied up in court. He's going to be hitting the campaign trail, drumming up support from some other margins. And, he can say whatever - "what're they gonna do? Arrest me?"
The thing to remember about Trump is what his cult of personality believes. -That he "sacrificed" the cushy life of a billionaire business mogul to work in politics because Trump believes that he and he alone can save America from the liberal threat. -That Trump is somehow simultaneously a victim of wide liberal conspiracies, the last line of defense of rampant liberalism and paradoxically, never lost a fight. -That Trump's philandering is somehow all a series of lies and that anything he does is somehow moral, and these are all false allegations perpetrated by angry women abusing the justice system. These people refuse to believe anything else, because the approach to changing those beliefs is doomed to fail. The news won't change their mind, their neighbors, friends and communities will. Also, it's an all-or-nothing sort of belief: if they are anti-vax and pro-Trump, they immediately and steeply discount someone who is pro-vax and pro-Trump. These beliefs are not changed rationally, because the fears and wants behind them are not addressed by facts. It's not "boy, I want my granddaughter to want to meet the President some day" coupled with "I think Trump is probably not able to deliver on what he's promising, and he's probably lying about a whole lot more than we think." it's "SOMEBODY BETTER DO SOMETHING BEFORE THE LIBRARIAN MAKES HER QUEER!" Trump being a convicted felon only confirms his status of persecution. They won't think of anyone committing white collar crimes, that are essentially victimless ("he would've won the election anyway, the money was his, not stolen, etc.") in the same vein as a violent felon or someone "deserving" harsh justice. This feels like he is being convicted of filling out a form wrong to them, not a heinous and callous crime. These people are vocal, because they a) get attention from it, b) affirm their community from it and c) feel as though they are fighting against the mainstream tide. They view themselves as crusaders and underdogs and he is their champion. They also make the less extreme Republicans feel safe and justified. Trump is problematic, but his base believes what they believe and they cannot abide voting for Democrats based, typically, on cultural wedge issues like transgender rights, abortion, etc. It's notable that there isn't a real coherent platform, economic policy or anything of the sort. Trump makes vague promises to do things that make no sense like ban electric cars. No critical thinking, no peeking into this deeper, no questioning how the fuck any of this will work. The middle set of Republicans hear this sort of thing and go "well, at least he's doing SOMETHING" because Biden isn't making sweeping promises like eliminating climate change. These folks view voting Republican as part of their identity: it's like believing in Jesus, eating hamburgers, and driving a Ford pickup truck. Trump's felony conviction cements his martyrdom, in a sense. It galvanizes the hardcore Magats, because based on the J6 prosecutions, they know if Trump is found guilty, they will be targets themselves. It confirms a lot of their fears and suspicions about the government, and their response thus far is to tweet 14-year old edgelord shit about war and the end of America. Sooner or later, they will fuck around and we'll all find out, and I have to suspect that the next round of prosecutions won't take 4 years to unfold. I think the strategy isn't to change anyone's mind about Trump, that's already difficult, distasteful and requires enormous effort. The strategy is to poison the well so these Magats don't vote at all, or start saying/doing some heinous shit that alienate them from the middle-tier Republicans (I think of this as the Dale Gribble/Hank Hill dichotomy...Hank will eventually bail when Dale goes too far down the rabbit hole). This is what happened to MTG in Congress: she went so far into dysfunction that her own colleagues ignored her, and now she's not even worth censuring. It's why Biden is sending DeNiro to gloat outside the courthouse: goading the opposition to over-react and scare away the moderates. The tactic isn't to switch parties, it's to get enough Trump voters to be disgusted and stay home. The women pissed about RvW will do the rest. The felony conviction won't hurt Trump at all to his base, but the way his base reacts will. I can't imagine the Hank Hill contingent of the GOP on board with civil war, because a philandering billionaire con man stopped being a useful idiot to the politicians they actually support (Mitch McConnell). Also, they are watching his speaking and rallies degrade in real time, and his cries of persecution start to sound like an old whining man-baby. Their protest won't be a vote for Biden, it will be staying home in November, and tuning out of a reality tv show that suddenly got too trashy and ridiculous for them.
I think lots of people under or overestimate that. There is a large number of people that will vote for Trump, even though they hate his cult of personality, despise his moral character and don't buy into all that other stuff. They simply SUPER DOUBLE HATE Joe Biden and will vote for whomever is on the ticket with an (R) by their name. That's it.
I think you're underestimating the effect of the conviction itself on the "Hank Hill types." The MAGA base will believe anything, and will follow the rabbit hole of conspiracy theories and lies as deep as it goes, but there's still a good chunk of the party that knows Trump is a piece of shit, and is looking for a permission structure to vote for him. They want to be able to say "I know Trump is X, but I had to vote for him because of Y." A felony conviction really adds weight to the X side of that equation. They're looking for a way to resolve their cognitive dissonance, and if you add "you're voting for a felon" to the mix, it becomes that much harder. It will be too much for some (not all) of them, and they won't be able to bring themselves to pull the lever for Trump on election day.
My sister's view (though it may be in the past): "you don't vote for the person, you vote for the party". My view?:: "fuck that shit, I'm voting for the person I think will do the best job and make government work". Sadly, neither of these old white dudes (hey, that's me too!!!) are worth a bucket of pigshit.
I don't think so. These are the same folks who saw the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal as the political witch hunt that it was, and they may have been around for the Reagan and Nixon-era inquiries. Also, Trump's always been in the news, and just as often in court. Hell, Trump won with chants of "lock her up!"...the idea that a felon makes someone not worthy of their vote is kind of like saying a scarlet letter renders a pussy not worth fucking: it is might be a mark against to some folks, but when you're alone in that booth, other factors are more important. Trump is a piece of shit, and there's a chunk of the electorate that wishes they could write in Nikki Haley and be rid of him soon. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the donors and folks exerting influence on Trump nudge him towards Haley as VP as a condition of support. It would win the center right (and probably center left) back and set Trump up to be disposable. If he wins, these legal issues go away, but the moment he starts talking about a 3rd term, or something equally "dick-tater"ish, he can be gone and a malleable adult will take over. I don't think this conviction matters nearly as much as January 6th, and the rhetoric coming out of this conviction will paint the J6 actions in stark contrast. Hank doesn't care about white collar crime, he cares about extremist violence, and just like Uvalde, the far end of the shit show will give Hank pause, and cause him to question the right side of right. The idea that these folks suddenly find Trump distasteful due to white collar crime just doesn't compute: he's gotten away with white collar crime for decades now, and the "catch and kill" practice isn't illegal, it's literally an example of a media bias that they rant about. I can't imagine Trump voters give a shit about the nuances of campaign finance laws, since the average voter doesn't. I don't think this adds to the cognitive dissonance as much as treason, and that trial isn't likely to go anywhere before November.
lol, they can't. She won't be on the ballot as an option. Trump will use this to increase his fund raising, he'll likely make Biden look silly in the debates, and now that the seal is broken, somebody will find a way to charge Biden (and Obama and the Clintons, if the statute of limitations allows it) with crimes.
Am I the only one who'd never seen her, uh, work until this trial started? As for the rest, the dipshit wanted to make a bigger name for himself and now he's truly made history. The worst he's going to get out of this is fines, maybe probation, but I aint holding my breath for that even. And I have a feeling this is only going to help Trump's poll numbers.