The Republican candidate had no shot regardless as the world financial system was blowing up and the party in the White House is always going to get blamed. McCain would have been a decent President IMO.
McCain would have been a FUCKING AWESOME president, but the Repubs kept shooting themselves in the foot back in those days. Remember when there was a big controversy about Bob Dole being too old at SEVENTY TWO YEARS OLD? But they picked him instead of McCain. Because I remember that shit. Then they put nepo-baby Bush up for election in '00. What kind of world would we be living in if John McCain had been president in those years? A man who had actually gone to war? Would we have gone to Iraq?
I don't think anyone besides Bush would have dragged us into Iraq after 9/11. Hell, I don't think Gore would have started a war in Afghanistan. So many wasted lives and trillions of dollars in those two wars. I remember working as a vendor that morning and an employee in the grocery store saying we would go to war over the attack. I thought there was no way we would be that stupid but Bush proved me wrong. Anyone with a functioning brain knew it would turn into a fucking quagmire in those two countries.
At this point, the only way Trump wins is luck. This is coming apart in 3 dimensions: 1. The rallies are wildly divergent, and it's starting to be hard to ignore. Biden's rallies were never a big thing, and they had auspices of COVID. Harris' are genuinely demonstrating popular fervor in swing states (AZ and GA). Trump's are petering out, and after the assassination attempt, I imagine the security is amped up, which means fewer people go. Also, the investigation has largely been quiet, which is helping. 2. The debate is a foregone conclusion. I imagine Trump being notified that if he didn't participate, he'd be sued by the network, and that his absence would be messaged (appropriately) as "pussy didn't show", so he agreed to do it. If it happens, it's basically Trump on the stand and Harris as a prosecutor. The only question is how low she's willing to go. For all Trump's experience with court, especially the court of public opinion, this will be the most difficult. His unhinged ranting is now starting to feel like panic, not rage. 2.5 The donors are already pulling back, and the public ones (Elon, for example) are sending a loud signal to the rest. Some of them are already committed, but the funds he raises from here out might as well go to legal fees, not campaigning. 3. You'll have some prominent Magats start to recoil, and distance themselves from the movement (Joe fucking Rogan).Pretty soon, the instant Kamala's campaign hits any kind of snag or slow down, she will take the gloves off regarding a prominent issue and it will paint a vivid and frightening picture of how Magats will be treated in a Harris administration. As more folks believe he's going to lose, the reality of being a Trump supporter during a vengeful Harris administration (she has legitimate axes to grind just from her time in the Biden administration as VP, much less every slight against her family, race, etc.) will set in. Rats will start to abandon ship. If I were to bet, it'd be on some historical sexual assault or women's health issue that explains why she's childless, and when she hits Trump on it, she will not pull punches. "Trump is weird" is working well, when it turns into "Rapists like Trump should be in prison, not in office", it goes nuclear. Using King of the Hill as an example: -Dale: Trump ride or die. -Boomhauer: won't vote -Bill: closeted Democrat, likely due to a family member that is in the crosshairs of some Republican policy. Think LGBTQ kid, or he recalls a teenage abortion that had to happen, or something to that effect. He likely knows his vote means fuck all, but he's doing it out of a sense of obligation. -Hank Hill is the Republican voter who can be scared away from voting because Trump is too distasteful. He will vote for specific issues only if Harris' policies come off as a threat, on things like immigration or guns. When Harris didn't go with Kelly as VP, and pics of Walz hunting started to circulate, it's an attempt to get Hank Hill Republicans to stay home, because guns aren't on the agenda. Harris isn't trying to win his vote, she's trying to create a vacuum so that his choice of "nothing" is preferable to "Cheeto fascism". Harris won't win Hill's district or state, but the down-ticket races are more competitive if he stays home. -Peggy & Bobby are both voting Democrat, and potentially lying about it. If the Hank Hill Republicans get skittish, then the businesses will pick up on the toxicity of Trump's brand, and do the same. The brand war might be the final nail in Trump's coffin. When Jennifer Anniston reacted to Vance's childless women comments, that was a PR machine engaging that was previously neutral. The more Trump's brand is on the losing side, and the more businesses see how they cannot be associated with him, the more accelerated that decline will be. Toyota runs ads everywhere, and they spend a LOT on the right-wing media landscape, one of the top ten advertisers on Fox News. This is somewhat strategic: they have to overcome a bias towards US-based brands, and the truck and SUV lines are by far the most profitable. The brand doesn't get damaged, because "Tundra on Fox, Prius on CNN", and the claim that they advertise to everyone used to get them a pass. Not anymore. Not if they are seen supporting a felon, rapist, racist, fascist and the campaign increasingly ties their money to that "platform". Tesla has suffered from Elon's shift rightward, prominently in the European market. Right now, businesses are cautiously optimistic that a Trump win gives them another term with a useful idiot. If they get too closely associated with him, however, it's toxic. That line is about to shift dramatically as the Harris campaign continues, and it means he's costing more than he could ever redeem. Also, I don't think we're far from seeing employee protests. By and large, anyone who worked for Trump's administration is having a hard time getting a job. Pretty soon that circle will expand to supporters and companies, and the folks who quit in protest will get some play.
Or he could just have some of his planted people not certify the election or "miplace" some votes from certain counties.
I think Trump is leaning into weird and seeing how big his core, ride-or-die base actually is. Sizing up the income stream that he can keep milking after this year.
Show me a poll where that's happening, since he has never won the popular vote, and doesn't seem to be adding any with the current campaign. The margin of victory needed to win AZ and GA in 2020 Harris had at a rally. Also, I suspect Trump voters will stay home in November, but tell a poll they will vote for him. At this point, I think his prospects of winning are wildly oversold, unless we count the prospect of stupid luck, which he has in spades, or treason which he is also no strange to.
yeah I'm not chancing it. I know the whole "my vote doesn't matter in Texas" thing, but I'm still not chancing it.
Is it really stupid luck if he just wins through the systems we have in place? I understand y’all don’t like the man but to act as if him winning means there’s been some third world fuckery is just weird.
He has served as President of the United States before, so there might be some folks who vote for him. I mean, the man who got more votes than anybody in all of history and has been serving the people since the early 70s, isn't even running for re-election, and already debated Trump. And, now the woman who replaced him, previously known to be very unpopular, is running in his place. But, who knows. Every time I think I've seen the weirdest thing, something weirder happens.
It doesn't have to be third world fuckery, but the fact that he can get millions fewer votes and still be allowed to be President because of a failed system that has never once achieved its stated aims. Yeah, I'd chalk that up to stupid luck.
You can say that. But, Trump didn't get 74 votes in the last election. He got 74 million. That's a lot of people in our country being disregarded and thought of as irrelevant, for that to be "luck." I don't care if you want to consider them irrelevant, and think your vote should count more because you're smarter than they are. You're entitled to your opinion, and there are certainly lots of people that agree with you. But, to say that's stupid luck, you're just being obtuse.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Every single 2016 Trump voter and supporter I know, and it’s a whole lot of people, are more fired up to vote for him now than in 2020.
I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about you. You said it's stupid luck. Fox News has been the number one news network for the past 8 years because they found a market for people that were being ignored. They don't not exist.
Yes, it's stupid luck that state lines are drawn in such a way that Trump can get fewer votes and still win.
It would just be great if we only had someway to decide this. The electoral college isn’t perfect but you don’t see anyone advocating for House of Representatives reform.