This might seem cynical but do you think there's a chance he's trying to start a war to try to indefinitely delay any kind of criminal proceedings? They seem to have quite the hardon from NK and nothing good can come from that.
Come on man. Claiming a sitting US President would engage in war activity to distract from investigations into his wrongdoing? That's just silly.
Doubtful. Cutting through the bullshit on both sides of the isle, the Russian investigation hasnt yielded anything that wasnt already known. I think its because Mattis is in his ear about a potential regional war that could ignite due what is going on in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Japan and South Korea have been increasing their US-backed defense capability for decades and recently, Japan has been developing offensive capability for the first time since WWII. This makes China very nervous. Another thorn in China's side is North Korea, which embarrassed the Chinese President this week with its missile launch, more or less supporting the theory that China doesnt have their thumb on them as much as they claim they do. Its fun to laugh at North Korea's repeated failed missile launches, but the fact is they will eventually get it right, which scares everyone. Once they successfully develop an IRBM, they are going to point it at Seoul or Japan. The clock is starting to run out with NK for the US-Japan-SK alliance and more importantly China, for whom an allied military assault on North Korea would be a nightmare for them strategically. I would imagine Trump is continuing to meet with the President Xi Jingping in order to keep the cork in the powder keg. A major Pacific war could very quickly turn into a World War.
North Korea depends on a few things: international ambivalence, the Chinese keeping the administration afloat, and the threat of US military intervention. NK has 20 million people lingering in fucking atrocious conditions, for 70 years. The only thing keeping this from exploding into a full-on humanitarian crisis is the ridiculousness of the regime. NK exists between China, Russia and Japan: they had to be extreme to not be assimilated throughout all those years. They are masters at dissuading invasion and don't act like the silly posturing isn't part of it. They know exactly how ridiculous they seem and if ANY major world power took their posturing seriously, they would be in danger of an invasion. The Chinese have a vested interest in keeping the status quo. It gives them something to push back against SK with, gives them some leverage against the citizens of that region and the administration has ideological roots that they can't ignore there. The collapse of the NK regime would mean a likely humanitarian effort, spearheaded by the West and a Western puppet state right in their backdoor, propped up by two of the world's largest economies. Not a good look for a Chinese regime seeking to expand it's territorial ambitions, and one that's literally pissed off all its neighbors. The threat of another US military intervention is the last thing. They have propagandized the West for decades, and the sheer brutality of the Korean war isn't something they have overlooked. To the NK's, the Korean War was ridiculous on our part: we were no threat to them, and we created a mess, they tried to clean it up amongst themselves and we had to go in and fuck up their efforts. The only claim the regime can legitimately make is that it's kept the Western wolves at bay and the US threatening any sort of intervention would only solidify their reserve. The military strategy for an incursion is literally scorched earth: they would bomb the piss out of Seoul and any area of SK/Japan they could reach. They know within hours/days their military machine is utterly decimated in a traditional capacity, so the plan is bomb the fuck out of the Allies while they can in a first salvo and then fight a guerilla campaign with as many lessons learned from the terrorist tactics from the aughts as they can pull off. They know we will not tolerate a long, drawn out campaign with pissed off Allies (imagine the relationship with SK/Japan if we cause NK to shoot first, and then imagine SK/Japan's pivot to China: that's 3 of the world's top economies actively conspiring against us), and will invite China and Russia to help them against us. It's quite possibly World War 3, and we have someone in charge that can easily be goaded into using our military for such fuckery, to distract us from all sorts of scandals. Scary shit from the Hermit Kingdom. The best play is to put pressure on the Chinese to destabilize the regime and unite the Koreas with a global humanitarian coalition. What are the odds of that happening under the current administration?
Unlikely from any administration unless it happens by accident. When Kim Jong Un killed his uncle, the prevailing theory is that he had been approached by the Chinese to take over as leader in the event of a Chinese-backed coup. A global humanitarian coalition sounds great, until it comes down to actually getting other nations to participate. What would that look like? Plus there are other diplomatic issues at play here. China has an understated problem of ethnically Korean separatist movements all over Manchuria. 25 million NK refugees crossing into Dandong with no nation to call home could greatly exacerbate that issue for them. Plus a unified Korea after the NK collapse would decidedly be a pro-US state. And plus, China straight up shoots many NK illegal immigrants that cross over and have heavily militarized the border. Also there is the Russian issue. Russia's far east and parts of Siberia have ethnically Chinese people to the tune of a couple hundred thousand. Despite exchanging platitudes, Russia is likely far more concerned about the spreading of Chinese influence rather than the US, simply due to immediate proximity. That part of the world is very sparsely populated, all of the North Koreans flooding into it would create huge concerns for those relations. Then you have South Korea. Winning the military victory isnt much of a concern, its the aftermath. They can barely integrate the thousands of North Koreans that sneak across the border ever year, much less millions of people all at once. And as much as a coalition would attempt to share the costs, the non-monetary costs would heavily be on the South Koreans no matter which way its sliced. For more proof, just look at the reunification of Germany. That has cost Western Europe trillions, and still does. And East Germany wasnt nearly as bad as North Korea is. It would take decades and an entire concentration of the Korean economy for that to be feasible. Even though they would have a common interest, dont expect the Japanese to do anything meaningful. They certainly arent going to help Koreans with this endeavor, much less the Chinese if they can just sit back and reap the rewards. As for the US, well how much nation building do we want to do before we ruin ourselves? Not only would we need to spend billions to prop up some semblance of a functioning state in the North, but we would need to also provide massive financial assistance to the South, just to prevent a collapse of its economy and taking all of Asia with it. And Trump isnt going to just go bomb the Presidential palace, that would essentially be sacrificing the millions of people in Seoul just to do so. Europe barely assists with the Middle East, they surely arent going to help with a problem thats a world away.
This, to me, is the really interesting part. I can see Trump REALLY wanting to do something that would seem powerful and in control with NK... some over-the-top show of force to demonstrate to the world just how powerful he is, and it would be the totally wrong thing to do and incredibly knee-jerk and naive. That means his staff, most notably his Defence Staff, would be against it, and advising him not to. This could be a bigger internal and private struggle than it is a public one, and it could have some interesting fallout as a result.
Again, I can only imagine the internal shit storm around Trump, his team, and the defence advisors already in place. I imagine him as a King Joffrey and Bannon as an ugly Cersei.
Don't take this as an endorsement of Trump, but one of the few comforting things about the Trump Administration, especially if Bannon is off the Security Council, is that his Defense team is arguably the most competent and qualified of his advisors. Mattis wont get pushed around. And while I think worry about Tillerson's self interest is justified, I do think he is likely an effective diplomat.
Pure speculation, but maybe Bannon's removal is a result of the Joint Chiefs drawing a line in the sand. It could be that Bannon, Trump, etc, were pushing for some kind of insane response to NK that triggered a Joint Chief's "fuck you" standoff... where they maybe threatened to go to the press with a collaborative "he's an idiot" message... unless Bannon is removed, they are reinstated, etc. Total speculation on my part, but it seems way too easy to imagine being true. Either that or Bannon is about to have some serious shit come his way and Trump Co. is trying to distance himself from it. Or some info came to light that precludes Bannon from being on the Security Council. The speculation is endless...
I subscribe Hanlon's Razor to Trump's original administration picks. But I think your theories are probably correct. Hes probably just a fucking idiot and the Joint Chiefs put their foot down and forced him out.
I tend to think that Trump thinks everything is very easy, answerable in a black or white sound bite, and he is incapable of seeing any kind of complexity or nuance. The Joint Chiefs do, so they probably got sick and tired of the suggestions or directives that were steeped in 5th-grader "logic". "Who could have known it was this complicated?" Everyone. Except you.
And let's not forget... what we're seeing is the PUBLC facing side of all of this... I can only imagine the frustration and anger behind closed doors. Case in point... Trump killed almost $1.5 billion from the National Parks, and yet made a big show of giving up a quarter of his yearly salary to help make it better. Just look at the face of the Secretary of the Interior accepting the cheque for $77k... and just imagine what his inner monologue is. I laughed out loud when I saw it. And this was an intentional, staged event that they thought was a good idea.
The official explanation for why Bannon is now off the NSC makes less than zero sense. So Bannon was originally some kind of political babysitter for Flynn? Why put in a National Security Advisor you can't trust? And if you can trust him, is Bannon's role purely to politicize the otherwise security-focused decisions made by Flynn? And why was he still there weeks after Flynn's departure? My hope is that they're just trying to spin a decision by McMaster to the effect of "get this black bloated liver off my council" into something less embarrassing, but who the fuck knows.
PR geniuses they are not. I've heard they made a spectacle of bannons demotion to distract the press pre Gorsuch vote. Though I've seenn the media has already been running coverage saying giving up the filibuster rule won't be a big departure from the already contentious partisan fight.
You know, China could do the whole world a favor and just resettle the entirety of NK's population out in their countryside. It'd be less than a drop in the bucket, to a nation of billions. They got arable land, just give them the tools to be self sufficient and stay out of sight.
Looks like some cuck motherfucker doesn't know how to play 4D chess! The God emperor is easily 50 steps ahead of everyone. Seriously though, typical Trump retardation aside I don't actually mind the cuts all that much. The one thing Americans seem to agree on across the board is they always want lower taxes and they don't want to cut anything... except that little sliver of foreign aid (not including Israel, our biggest taker of foreign aid derp!) Having spent a decent portion of my career working with government contracts the waste is abysmal. Moreover, if we ever want to have a chance at cutting into the debt we have to start somewhere.
Yeah....I don't think he is serious about cutting into the national debt. I don't think your concern about it is too real either considering... Trump v. Clinton: Comparing the costs of their plans from CBSNews 9-22-16
OK, I did. Turns out it's mainly a European problem, with the causes being displacement of the natives and culture shock from immigrants bringing their customs with them. Now, how do either of these conditions apply to a Chinese intake of North Korean refugees? When China has so much territory to house them in, and the only custom being brought over is worship of Dear Leader? It's a win/win: China gets to repopulate their farm villages abandoned by youths seeking city work, NK get to live in relative freedom for the first time. And as for Dear Leader, we know how good the PRC is at ending religious worship, it just won't be a problem.