So... how about that new military parade that Trump is throwing? 2 days after the midterm results, at a cost close to $100 million. He said this to Playboy in 1990 (regarding Tiananmen Square): “The Chinese government almost blew it. Then they were vicious, they were horrible, but they put it down with strength. That shows you the power of strength. Our country is right now perceived as weak.” That's pretty interesting, if you ask me.
What's everyone's take on 538 (Nate Silver) and their ability to forecast results? Because right now they're calling for a 75% chance that the Dems will retake the House during the midterms... https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ Combine that with Trump's parade and the imagination goes wild...
Until the last election, he was pretty good at picking results. He was dead-on with the numbers both times Obama won.
He was good on the last election as well. His overall likelihood of a Trump win had him far more plausible than other outlets, and of the five states he missed: All results were within his stated margins of error Florida and North Carolina he had as basically tossups to begin with, and were won by pretty thin margins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all had comparatively less accurate polling than other states, and ultimately went very narrowly Trump I don't thin you could reasonably expect his analysis of the available data to be any better than it was.
538 is one of the better ones. Some of that is probably riding historical trends, but Id trust 538 over most others.
Is anybody else surprised the jury in the Manafort trial is taking this long to reach a verdict? It seems like the defense's entire argument was basically "Come on, what does all of this evidence really prove?" Granted, the prosecution brought up a lot of irrelevant info during the trial, but does that actually matter? It's not like it makes him any less guilty. I don't get why anybody feels the need to defend Brennan. He has been running around for months babbling hyperbolic nonsense to anyone who will listen. The guy is a fucking embarrassment and I hope he never holds a post again. In all honesty, you know who he really reminds me of, especially with the insipid tweets he keeps posting? Trump. What is up with this everyone wanting to be a media darling, anyway? I hope this is just part of the general Trump era dysfunction and dies with his presidency.
I’m not surprised the jury has been at it for only 3 days. He has 18 charges of mostly financial crimes. That’s a lot of paper evidence they need to go through. And juries aren’t that smart. Part of me feels that complex shit like this shouldn’t be left up to members of the general public. But that’s a different topic. I think they want to make sure they are doing this correctly. I hope.
I'm more concerned with the jury being sent home after pinkie swearing not to read or hear anything about the case, even as the President of the United States tweets his version of reasonable doubt. Yeah, I'm *sure* none of them have seen it.
For anyone that hasn't been on a jury, heres how it goes based on personal experience: 3-4 people are too stupid to do basic math, 1 person barely speaks English, 1 person just sits there and doesn't speak at all, 3 people want to know when there will be breaks, lunch, etc. and have zero interest in the case, 1 guy cant stop talking about how much work he's missing, and 2-3 people are actually taking it seriously. Its nowhere near 12 Angry Men.
Most people try to get out of Jury Duty because they have jobs, lives, etc. so you can’t blame them. The ones who are left get to hold other people’s lives and fate in their hands. The West Memphis Three is a model of what happens when you allow the severely corrupt/mentally handicapped to be in a jury. Those dumb bitches STILL think they’re guilty and sent them up the river just for not being “good Christian boys.” I can’t even....
This is what I would assume. It just seems inevitable that you would get at least a couple dumbasses who can't understand anything and hold up the deliberation process as a result.
Well, they sent a letter asking for further clarification on the meaning of reasonable doubt. In that 9 hour OJ documentary, they even interviewed some of the jurors who openly said they knew he was guilty but let him go to settle the Rodney King score. You have some of the highest educated people in the land pleading their case to the bottom of the barrel trash people. And hoping they “get it”.
The OJ case is one of the biggest (public) miscarriages of justice imaginable. Alternatively, a friend of mine is a trial attorney and said in law school they heard about jurors that want to convict someone just because they are defendant, so they must be guilty. Im surprised the OJ jurors werent charged because of that reasoning. Apparently nullification (where a jury acknowledges guilt but refuses to convict) is a huge no-no if its lobbied for ahead of time. It makes sense in terms of things like Jim Crow laws, but for straight up murder? Jesus Christ.
A lot of shit I’ve seen about this case in relation to judge’s behavior has been ridiculous. Whether or not I think Manafort should go to jail, coloring the testimony with the personal opinions from the judge is insane. Not sequestering the jury during the part of trial is also stupid as fuck. If you want an impartial jury, they need to be kept from smart phones, computers and tv until the end. No way they they kept to scouts honor this whole time. I don’t have enough faith in people to believe that shit. I think the prosecution would need to have ample paper trail evidence to contradict or confirm verbal testimony. How else would they be able to charge Gates with lying to the feds without something indicating such a lie. Same with Manafort.
Voir dire in this country is messed up. Each side selects jurors based more on what biases different demographics have towards the nature of the trial than finding people they truly think will be impartial. I suspect if the verdict goes manoforts way you’ll see a lot of left pundits claim it was more a political lay charged decision by the jurors. Probably why they want the names released in the first place.
Nothing I saw was the fault of the judge. The prosecution kept babbling about irrelevant shit to try to make the jurors dislike Manafort on a personal level. What kind of coat he bought last year has fuck all to do with whether or not he is guilty and they were rightly chastised for constantly bringing it up.
It really is. On the jury I served I could pretty much figure out what the verdict was going to be just based on who was selected. I have no idea why the prosecutor didn't dismiss some of the jurors who ended up staying.
My DUI lawyer gave me a break down of all the potential jurors based on their demos and how’d they’d likely vote. A guy mentioned living with a “partner” which indicated he was gay. We took him because they likely vote against an over bearing cop because they typically feel oppressed in their lives(so said my lawyer). It was never discussed by I assumed he figured everyone lied about the impartial questions and biases were just the pragmatic next step.
https://theintercept.com/2018/08/21/elizabeth-warren-unveils-radical-anti-corruption-platform/ Bravo, Elizabeth Warren! This won't solve everything but it is a true step in the right direction in limiting corporate influence in politics. I think this needs to be expanded to include people coming out of the private sector into Government as well (looking at you, Turbo Tax Timmy Geithner and Bazooka Hank Paulson) It needs a catchy name, though.....
Certainly a non talked about issue that needs major action. I totally agree with cutting the ability of elected officials to become lobbyists and the banning of foreign lobbyists. The latter issue to me is more of a America first policy that I’d hope both sides can agree with. I’m sure the arguments against will revolve around the “we’ll just have millionaires and billionaires running for Congress” if we kneecap earning potential.