Do you think he’s really screwed though? Seems like a lot of GOP leadership are gung ho about him no matter what. Could it be argued that he knew about the accusation and wanted to refute it? Because he doesn’t think he did it? And trying to defend himself against it is not an admission. However, him knowing about the incident might indicate he remembers doing it. And didn’t want it out. Either way, perjury doesn’t seem to be something a lot of politicians give much of a shit about. Hard to prove. However this case appears pretty cut and dry. It just depends on whether GOP members care. If this particular instance of perjury isn’t part of the final FBI report, could they say it doesn’t matter? I’m just trying to play out all the possibilities of what might be said.
Unless she gets no corroboration, AND that text story is totally bogus, yes I do. Flake is already looking for a reason to vote against him, and it will be very easy to get another purple state republican to say no. It doesn't matter what McConnell and co. want to do. If it turns out this story is true (and it looks like) he has less than a 1% chance. With an actual reason to vote him down, he's toast. Enough republican senators know the long term damage it would cause the party and there is no way all 51 of them take that risk.
Word on the street is that McConnell knew about three stories ahead of time which is why he didn’t want Kavanaugh in the first place. Makes you wonder why Trump chose him. There’s too much stink on this guy and Trump loves him some smelly folks. Between his shady debt and his drunken and sexually questionable past, I wonder if any type of off the record promises got made to help protect each other? It’s just speculation, but I don’t believe in coincidences.
Trump's self preservation. I don't think any other potential Judge sells out his services to protect Trump like he did... so Trump chose the one that was most beneficial to him. Again, that upcoming review of the Sovereign Separation ruling is a big deal... if the State is allowed to go after people that have been Presidentially Pardoned, then Trump and co/family is fucked... if Kavanaugh causes that to be overruled, then the Presidential Pardon is all-powerful. I really do think it is that simple. No 4-D chess required.
Do you think if Kavanaugh goes down there will be any fallout for trump? *edit* posted this before I saw nett's reply above
I really, really doubt McConnell or any of the other republicans knew about the accusations before the nomination. I'm fairly certain McConnell was like other republicans and felt he wasn't conservative enough, but I don't know. No offense guys, but you are starting to throw out so many unbacked conspiracy theories it's getting kind of crazy.
I think there is already fallout for Trump. This seems to be a turning point for some GOP members... they have to make a decision, and if it stinks too badly, their voters are going to bail. You already see a few senator start to position themselves in such a way that they're distancing themselves from the party line... look at Flake... he's starting to signal a "yeah, I'm not on board with this" vibe that could be signalling a 2020 run. If this stinks too, too badly, I think for the fist time there are real repercussions to the GOP... and, as expected, they are looking after number one. I have zero doubt that they are trying to figure out the polling results of their voters to see if they can get away with railroading through a dirty Kavanaugh. The ONE big common factor for the GOP is self-preservation. The Democrats, too, but they're not the ones in the hot seat right now.
Not in the immediate. My thought is that if kav goes down, even if the senate flips in the midterms, they can still cram a judge through in the lame duck period. It would be dirty, but not beyond the GOP to do so. Also, I accept the fact that conservative administrations will put a more conservative leaning justice on the court. It’s the nature of the game. I’d rather have a clean judge than a more moderate but dirty as fuck judge. It’s always preferred to find someone more down the middle, but since the implementation of the nuclear option, you don’t need to give a shit about the other side anymore.
Flake is only saying the things he is because he’s not running anymore. At this point, from the rhetoric on display, there could be video footage of Kavanaugh skull fucking an unconscious teenager and they would hold a vote and get at least 40 votes. I have zero faith in Trump supporters to give a shit how much this guy perjured himself before the senate. As far as they are concerned, lying to democrats is okay because we are just a bunch of libtards anyway.
I think that the GOP has been going along with Trump so far because there's no shit that comes back and sticks on them. I think this is the first potential situation where they can get shit stuck to them, and they are worried about it. But really, I'm just a fucking Canadian looking in from the outside who hates both sides, so what do I know?
I went back to watch the hearing, but I didn't watch every minute of it. If the democrats trying to ruin him is supposed to be a 'conspiracy theory' I really don't know what to tell you. Did he go on some kind of crazed George Soros rant? That would kind of explain the reactions to the testimony because I thought he looked bad, but not tin foil hat yelling at people on the street bad. It's been kind of weird the last few years. Typically, both parties try to play towards both their base and middle America. Lately, it's been straight base, all the way, for both parties. I wonder if the approach to elections has changed and the perception is now that turn out is more important than winning swing votes. On this one I have to agree with you that it would be too risky, but they've done so much unfathomably stupid shit in the last 4-6 years because their base wanted it, it really is amazing.
I think you make a good point. But it only matters as much as their public support. Politicians will only do it right thing if they feel their jobs depended on it. Personally, I feel tainting the highest court we have hurts it’s legitimacy. We have 4 judges that we know are pretty reliable conservatives. John Roberts has been a little suprising but not much. If the swing vote has a legitimacy question behind it, based on expressed conspiracy theories about liberals from a justice who doesn’t respect the law, there will always be a question of judicial bias from his opinions.
I hate both sides, but God do I hate the Republicans so much more. With Democrats it's like "Is this really the best you can do?" with Republicans its "Is it even possible that you could do worse?"
That approach isn’t changing. The next 50 years are going to be full increasingly insular, populist presidents. US globalism will start decreasing rapidly so domestic-middle America policy will be the focus. The parties are going to start converging rather than diverging. Sure, it won’t feel that way, but policy-wise there won’t be a huge difference.
This looked like the nail in the coffin, but oddly none of the other major outlets are reporting on this. I thought CNN and Vox would be jumping all over it. After watching one of NBC's round tables, the reporters keep using disclaimers like "may have", "could mean", "might suggest", and so on. We'll see. It doesn't look as damning as it did when it first came out. After reading a little bit more into that Julie woman she seems like a total whacko, but I have to think if Rivera is telling the truth someone is going to corroborate it.
In relation to the other 2 accusers, Swetnick is by far the least credible and a total nut job. She started out accusing him of gang rape and walked it back just a tad to say that he was really drunk at a party she went to, but never saw him actually do anything.
I thought it was interesting she redescribed his behavior that lined up perfectly with 4th accusations claim that he pressed his body against his girlfriend’s against a wall in the 90s.
New ethics complaints have now been filed against Kavanaugh. In Merrick Garland's jurisdiction. https://lawandcrime.com/high-profil...icial-ethics-complaints-in-d-c-circuit-court/ You can file such complaints here: https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/home.nsf/Content/Judicial Misconduct Some reasons for filing such complaints are listed there, but the ones that seem pertinent are: engaging in partisan political activity or making inappropriately partisan statements; And this: You may complain about actions taken by a judge outside his or her official role as a judge only if “the conduct might have a prejudicial effect on the administration of the business of the courts, including a substantial and widespread lowering of public confidence in the courts among reasonable people.”