I think Kamala Harris will be the nominee. Shes a mixed race woman. Shes hits the mainstream democrat positions while also hitting a few of the more retarded progressive (redundant) points. She wont directly play the race or gender card herself, but she will let all of her supporters do that for her. If she goes against Trump, Id give her 50/50. I dont think any of the other nominees would beat him.
I’m not sure she really has the charisma. She’s made a name for herself spouting unapologetic hard left platitudes but I haven’t seen anything else on her record that goes any deeper. Having watched Cory Booker, that guy has the charisma in the limelight that I think is better suited to face Trump’s style.
I agree, I think Gabbard should get it but I doubt she will. B this is the party that lost to Trump in 2016 by going with Hillary, mind you. Unless Booker really turns around his persona, I doubt he would get it. He's very melodramatic and his Kavanaugh hearing "Spartacus moment" was seen more silly than earnest. Not a single person actually believes he cried when Trump called Haiti a shit-hole. Also, his bullshit about campaign finance reform will be shot down when its easily brought to light that he gets millions from investment banks. Plus, hes buddies with Bob Menendez.
Can I ask why you think Trump is going to be so hard to beat? I'm really not seeing it. Yes, he won against Hillary, but she was the most hated democrat candidate ever, and ran the worst presidential campaign of a major party nominee any of us will see in our lifetimes. On his best days Trump barely cracks 40 for approval ratings, and it's not like he bounces around much. He clearly has a very low ceiling, and the polling shows that the people not approving of him aren't merely indifferent, they fucking hate him. He polls behind every democrat candidate. He's losing to Biden by almost 15 points on average. He's way behind Sanders. He's even losing to horrid candidates like Gillibrand. It's not that I think polls are so important relative to any particular candidate at this point, but when you're getting crushed by everyone and your support numbers have been stuck in the mud for well over a year it's a pretty bad sign. Biden would destroy him. So would O'Rourke. Sanders probably would too. Gabbard is the only candidate that conservatives somewhat like so I can't see how she would lose to him. Harris is someone who potentially could lose to him, but I'm really not seeing 50/50. The only two that I think would have a decent chance of losing to him are Booker and Gillibrand. I agree, but Gabbard is really fighting an uphill battle. The media hates her. The people who nominated Hillary won't like her because she wasn't gay friendly enough back in 2002 when she was turning 20. The most difficult problem for her though is that she has almost no chance of winning the policy deaf, just want to yell at everything voters in the party. That's no small demographic and she's probably going to lose all of them. They hear Bannon liked her back when he was in Trump's cabinet and that therefore makes her the same as Bannon, which therefore makes her a nazi. She uses terms like "radical Islam" openly, which to them is the moral equivalent of owning slaves. Her worst sin of all though is that she tries to accomplish bipartisan work, and a lot of the democrat voters hate that. They want someone who is going to propagate endless conspiracy theories, never ever shut the fuck up about Russia, and shout that Republicans are racist until their voice is hoarse. Gabbard would likely do very well with independents, but they don't show up for the primaries. At least, not enough of them do. She does well with the old Bernie wing of the party, but they're all in for Sanders again if he runs. Personally, I hope he doesn't. He's just going to end up taking away votes from Warren and Gabbard, and by the time the general election is cast he's going to be 79. I can accept someone old, but that is really pushing it. It will be interesting to see to what extent the democrat primaries focus on identity politics. The media is still obsessed with it, but it seems like the general population is really getting fed up with it. I found this interesting. That's interesting, but this part is really funny. When even the people you allegedly propagate all of this shit for are overwhelmingly sick of it maybe it's time to move on. I really don't get how an ideology that is so unpopular manages to dominate the media so completely.
Him being re-elected hinges on 2 key factors: Not being impeached and/or being convicted for a crime (e.g. Russian collusion, etc.) No economic downturn into a recession before 2020 If those two factors hold, he will probably win (barring any additional variables that have yet to reveal themselves). The Electoral College barely changes from 2016 to 2020. The economy is doing well and will probably do so as it will be propped up (at least in the short term) by the US being a net oil exporter for the first time.* His approval rating among blacks and latinos is higher than it should be. Hes an incumbent. The people that would care about his bombastic ego already do. The people that dont, already dont. Those lines were drawn pre-2016 and he still won. The Democrats need a charismatic megastar like Obama to overcome all of that. Of the announced candidates, who fits that bill? Any of them? I dont think so. *If the US hits another debt bubble, this factor wont apply.
Ok, still got to ask a couple questions. If he has all the advantages why is he polling so far behind every potential candidate? We're not talking about a couple points here. At best he's behind by 6. Against people like Biden he's down by about 15. What do you see changing so many minds over the next couple years? He hasn't been impeached yet and the economy is doing fine right now. So all things being equal why do all these people decide to run over to Trump? Secondly, do you really think running against Hillary is like running against, well... anyone else? The democrats find ways to lose. They could pull it off, hard as it will be. But they've run out of Hillary Clintons. No one else can fail so spectacularly in so many ways. Nobody else can bring that much baggage into the general election. Who else could possibly suck that hard that will get nominated? The only one I see that is even close is Booker and even he isn't nearly as bad as Hillary. The only way I see it happening is the democrat candidate goes so over the top with the identity politics horse shit that he/she manages to annoy people into either not voting or voting Trump. I don't think the fact that the electoral college will be roughly same is all that relevant. It didn't change much from '12 to '16 either, and Obama won by a lot more against a far better candidate than Trump did.
Wasnt 2016 enough proof regarding the accuracy and lets be honest, the legitimacy of a lot of polling? They dont need another Hillary Clinton to lose. But they do need another Barack Obama to win. Thats right, it didnt change much between 2012 and 2016, but what changed was the demographic make-up of voting blocs per party. That, along with the EC map, is not changing by 2020 or probably the foreseeable future.
I don’t know, he barely squeaked by in the states where it counted. If the democrats don’t flub and pick either a hard liner who’d draw out more opposition or a dinosaur like Biden. I think the democrat base can overcome the loses in the Midwest with relative ease. Not sure if being the incumbent will be the same as the past given the absolute hate for him. I will say this it be deliciously satisfying if he manages to win again but wins the popular vote. Like Bush in 04 did after years of “not my president.”
I guess I'll mention the candidate who is probably the longest of long shots - Pete Buttigieg. There's more than a little hometown pride seeing him throw his hat in the ring, but I'm having a hard time seeing him generating the momentum for a successful 2020 bid. Maybe it'll generate some movement towards a future bid, though. 538 did an interesting write up on him - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pete-buttigieg-2020-democratic-nomination/
Trump beat the polls by a couple points. It really wasn't all that unprecedented. The reason it came across as such a shocker was that the media was adamantly in denial about how the polls had moved in the last week. 538 gave Trump a 30% shot. That's really not that big of an underdog. It was adorable that HuffPo had Hillary at 99%, but let's face it, that was because they're stupid. In any case, it's one thing to beat the polls within the error margin. If he's down by double digits when the election rolls around he has no chance. The economy will help him, but it's not going to be enough by itself. The democrats will need to find a way to fuck up. As hard as it is to bet against that, I will for now. I thought the possibility of Russia (only referring to the collusion side of it) ultimately going no where would have hurt the left, but I'm not sure it matters. There's been so many false/redacted stories about Russia, and other things, and it doesn't have much of an impact. People don't really care anymore. I guess they just expect it these days and figure the right wing media fucks up as often anyway. Yeah, I think he's just trying to build some name recognition for down the road. As much as I respect 538 for their statistical analysis they generally write the most out of touch, way off base social commentary and candidate analysis. That piece was surprisingly cogent and reasonable. It's good that they're focusing on the lesser knowns instead of just the household names.
If the US is in recession he'll lose by historic margins. A relatively good economy is the only thing he has going for him. I've looked at the numbers on a state by state level and unless something improves for him, he's in a lot of trouble. His net favorability (%approving - %disapproving) is underwater by 20+ points in all the blue states, and by 10+ in a lot of the upper midwest and rust belt states that enabled his 2016 victory. He's underwater in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. He's barely above water in Texas and Kansas of all places. The Democrat is going to absolutely walk to 196 electoral votes without spending a dime based on the blue states alone. And then Trump is going to have to play defense across a huge number of states to prevent them from getting to 270.
Anybody else at a loss as to why Cortez is constantly in the news? I really wanted to like her, but fuck... it's as if someone pulled the most irritating person they could find out of an OWS protest and put them in congress. Let's be real. That girl is never going to write a bill. She is never going to write so much as a paragraph that goes into a bill. I'm pretty sure that twitter dancing scandal was her apex. Congratulations, you so pwned all of those right wingers you made up. True, none of the conservatives actually cared, but that didn't stop your circus seals from clapping so hard they almost broke their hands. I'm all for challenging the establishment, but she has nothing to add. Her knowledge of anything ever reaches it's limit at the conclusion of whatever issue's one sentence slogan. How about instead of reporting on whatever asinine giberish dribbles out of her mouth the media just puts a footnote at the end of their articles: "And then, while the adults were talking, Cortez interrupted with a juvenile and thoroughly idiotic proclamation." There. Done. No other reporting necessary. That perfectly encapsulates everything she will do until she finally annoys someone so much they shoot her.
It started because Joe Crowley losing a primary was a shocker that political wonks reported on because of how unexpected it was. Since then it's just been a cycle of conservative media being unable to stop attacking her because the mainstream media keeps reporting on her, and the mainstream media keeps reporting on her because conservative media can't stop attacking her. I think this twitter exchange sums up the ouroboros pretty well: Spoiler
Shapiro would trade his soul to Satan for even the *chance* to fuck her. There is no way he hasn't been in the shower with a handful of Prell thinking about AOC.
This is the exact post liberals were writing about Trump when he was running for president. And no, I'm not saying I want her to be president. Just pointing out the similarities.
I've actually thought that as well. In a lot of ways she does resemble a left wing Trump. I'm just glad she's too young to run for Potus. Trump vs Cortez 2020. Could you imagine? Holy shit. To be honest, I really don't find her attractive at all. I can't remember though if that was always my reaction to her appearance, or only after I got to know her well enough to hope she gets set on fire.
Not sure what you mean, all I hear is donkey noises when I see a picture of her. What do you guys hear?
It says to me, "I want to stick my penis between her boobs." The whole "smear" the media tried to lay on Republicans for that dancing video also felt off. The theory is her staffers concocted and helped push the story. The original, and so far only twitter user Ive yet seen who criticized it, who posted it as a "smear" was registered on twitter the night before the post, the NYT had a full story out about it within like 12 hours of it.
Stick it in her mouth so she'll stop talking. You can definitely get your balls and probably your asshole in there as well if you're into that sort of thing.