According to Eyepatch Asshole on Rogan yesterday, that’s the last thing any American would want. Of course all of his health care was provided pro bono, but take it from him.
Dan Crenshaw has been one of the most disappointing new members to Congress. He almost immediately started engaging in partisan hackery and Trump bootlicking. I had some hopes for him because he is younger and maybe more with the times. But nope.
Spoiler: Spoilered for size I think it will all depend on how fucked the economy is in November. If you've got unemployment of 40-50 million people, or even under employment of a sizeable chunk, you will simply not have enough people paying in to keep the private insurance market afloat (330 million customers, yet less than a third of them are paying for everyone?). You're going to have three major blows: 1. COVID-19 shut down, costing people at best a month's worth of wages, more likely 2-3 months. That's a lot of money that simply never got spent. 2. COVID-19 uncertainty. Businesses have to figure out how to operate in a more restricted environment, and that means delays, risk avoidance and spending money on things like PPE that amounts to a slow down. 3. Assuming Trump loses the election, his tax cuts will likely go with him. Businesses and the investor class are already gearing up for a higher tax burden, and will slow investment/spending accordingly. Depending on how bad this outbreak gets, you may have: 4. Overwhelmed sectors like private health insurance, life insurance payouts, and medical services that can't do "profitable" activities, because they have to focus on COVID-19 activities (ie, no one is getting a physical, or a cholesterol test right now, and treating COVID folks is expensive in terms of liability, PPE and level of care). Some of this is getting billed to insurance, sure, but....lots of uninsured folks, and someone has to pay the ridiculous bill. So, if healthcare is one of the largest sectors of the economy and it's suddenly unprofitable both on the provider side and the insurance side (and likely the death side), it's going to have dramatic ramifications on the larger economy. This is a fundamental flaw in the system: healthcare costs being borne by employers means that individual businesses have differences in risk and liability. Ie, a company with young, single people will pay less to insure those people than a company with a lot of staff in their 50's with families. Since the risk isn't shared universally (ie, universal health care), liability will be shifted. One of the reasons we have so many lawsuits due to injury is that simple: someone has to pay the medical bills, especially if you're uninsured. "I got hurt in your store, and I have shitty/no insurance, so I need to sue to cover the bills." The liability for catching Coronavirus in your place of business is going to be a big fucking deal, in terms of how long this shut down continues, the impact on the health insurance market, and the larger healthcare system. I think this is shaping up to be worse than 2008. I also am concerned that Trump and the Fed have been deploying every tool at their disposal to keep the economy hot because that's the best chance he has for re-election. So, the tools we normally have to speed things up are already in full use, so there's no additional room. One of the issues is using the stock market as an indicator of economic health. I will be looking at unemployment benefits, money paid into UI, and labor force participation. That last one never really recovered from 2008, and I expect that if the labor force participation declines even further, you simply can't subsidize the many with the employer-provided insurance of the increasingly few. If the economy is proper fucked, I think Biden will have a "change of heart" when it comes to M4A and some more liberal policies. If if shows signs of stabilization, you will see no fundamental change. I don't think we'll get back to the 2020 peak for at least 24 months, and this recession will likely hover over Biden's first term (assuming he wins). Also, Biden's VP will be Kamala Harris. Bet me.
Its tough to predict because there just arent a ton of models for the rebound after a global pandemic, at least nothing meaningful. The structure of the economy is in far better shape than in was in 2008. There are no imminent bubbles that are about to burst, etc., even with high unemployment. Education loans could have, but suspending the federal loan program was the right move. As as factors to analyze, the labor force participation rate has been declining since 1999 and has been more or less stable in declination since 2012/2013, so using just before the Recession as a marker is not very useful. The rate is probably a better indicator than the value. There is evidence to suggest that the LPR is a bow, and it ramp quickly until an economy hits certain factors, per-capital wealth, increasing social programs, etc. How the government handles getting people back to work will impact how the next decade shapes out. The upcoming election really isnt going to matter all that much because both Trump and Biden will have to take pretty similar steps. The industry to really watch during this will be energy. Global oil demand has dropped dramatically and its had the largest drop in petroleum demand in history. The more concerning issue is how Saudi Arabia and Russia will interact. The Saudis have no where to put their supply, except dumping in markets that Russia typically delivers to. Should be interesting. There were a bunch of articles this morning suggesting this, so probably.
Fair point, but the lack of bubbles is the only point I disagree with. Stock bubble has already burst, as there was a ton of inflated value over the past few years, as evidenced by stock buybacks. I think there is a sizeable housing bubble, as evidenced by the proliferation of McMansions that are appraised at 400-500k, sold for less than $250k pre-2008, and are generally lower build quality. There's going to be a demographic trend as the folks who bought those homes get too old to maintain them, there's no young buyers stepping up to buy a $500k McMansion unless it's near a major metro area, and the build quality starts to deteriorate. That bubble is propped up mostly by a lack of new supply, and that isn't getting addressed any time soon (probably). But I think you will have folks trying to tap into home equity and discovering it's not all there.
40% unemployment and medicare for all is going to be funded how? Tax revenue is going to fall off a cliff so I guess fire up the printer and deficit spend?
I disagree that there aren't tools available to pump the economy. The fastest, easiest way to jump start the economy coming out of this is a mega infrastructure bill. It's not as though there isn't a need for an upgrade. While I agree there are bubbles - auto loans, student loans, housing to some degree is getting frothy again, etc. I don't think this feels at all like 2008. 2008 was bad, this doesn't have the same feel to it all. I still don't see Biden getting elected. The only shot he has is if he doesn't have to do a single campaign or a single debate. Regardless of what you think of Trump, you have to recognize that Joe doesn't even speak English anymore; completely unable to communicate. To a greater degree than there was a concern of Trump's cronies running the country; Biden's surrogates will be running the country if elected. I won't be voting for Joe. Not to mention, what happened with the Biden sexual assault allegation? Did the media swallow their microphone here? Was it believe all women, except when it's a Democrat doing the raping? Was it we have the verdict, time for the trial before and due process now? Too bad we are having a national quarantine; I'm sure all the women across America would be out with their pussy hats on the National Mall protesting Biden, with every camera and microphone turned to it right about now, right?
Well you don’t really know bad or severe a bubble is until after it bursts in dramatic fashion. That housing issue is in relegated to those metro areas you refer to, it’s not a design flaw in the current overall structure. As of January, mortgage delinquency rates have been hovering at 4ish % for quite a while across the US housing market. As for bubbles in general, even wild volatility in the market doesn’t mean one exists. Even if a ton of mortgages go delinquent because of unemployment due to the virus, the US is still not plagued with the issues that led up to 2008. I think the hedge against it is, when we globally get on the other side of the pandemic, there will be massive capital flight to the US. It was probably going to happen anyway, it will just be accelerated. People thinking that China is going to take over are retarded.
There's a $2 trillion infusion happening right now. The problem is it's covering a $4-7 trillion loss. I hope we don't see anything bigger than that in our lifetimes. Show me a poll that has Biden losing to Trump. I haven't seen one yet. Also, show me one where there is 10-15 million people unemployed and the economy is still reeling from the pandemic. If I'm a Democratic strategist, I am HAMMERING the fact that Trump was warned about Coronavirus and ignored it. Things will be different in November, but I don't think they will be back to "normal" by any measure and that will cost Trump dearly. Biden doesn't need to be very active to win, his time as VP helps him there. Biden was Vice President already. So, did the sexual assault happen in the last few years? Weird how the vetting he went through in 2008 and 2012 didn't catch it. Trump sexually assaulting women I believe: Miss America used to be his thing and there's literally a recording of him talking about it. Biden? Maybe back in the day, but I am skeptical that the allegations have legs, because...why now, as opposed to when he was Vice President? I get really leery of this kind of shit, because Trump seems to accuse his opponent of shit he's literally guilty of doing. I'll pay closer attention to those allegations when they get substantiated. It kind of blows my mind that people try and equivocate Trump's corruption with alleged shit Biden did. At a minimum, we KNOW Trump is forcing the government to spend millions in his resorts. I have personally listened to the WH Task Force subvert PPE shipments to private hands to enrich their friends. Orders for PPE in the hundreds of millions of dollars, being fielded by a company that didn't exist a month ago, started and ran by Trump campaign officials. Does Biden have some real-estate empire to abuse? Has he somehow been implicated in all manner of shady business deals? The only sketchy shit I've heard about Biden is his kid's work in Ukraine (on anti-corruption). Here's a really easy test: look at Biden's tax returns vs. Trump's. Real clear solution on Biden's "corruption".
By extension, Trump turns around and responds I did my best. He will just point to Democratic reactions to his travel restrictions from China - It was racist, there are the videos of high-level democrats in Chinatown celebrating the Lunar New Year saying there is no threat, etc. Pretty shaky ground to attack him on really. Bravo! Due process. I won't say you had different reaction to the Kavanaugh allegations because I don't know and I have no interest in mining posts here either but a LARGE swath of the board here sure did. So, I am shocked that the reaction in this instance is so different. If that proves true then they should throw them all out, including Trump, on their ear. If history is any indicator, there are whistleblowers waiting in the wings with more allegations. Biden plays exactly the same game as many other politicians. Put family members in charge of companies they have no business running and steer funds there while the family member is paid an out-sized salary. That isn't a Democrat or Republican thing it is a shitty Government graft thing. Joe Biden is a scum bag, Donald Trump is a scum bag and the Government is scum too. When everyone involved is scum, then nobody is scum....it's no longer a decision factor. What is a decision factor is that Joe Biden's mental capacity is clearly deteriorated and it is really shocking that they will move forward with this candidate.
Trump called it a hoax and literally said he assumes no responsibility. So, nah I think there's a solid foundation he was warned, ignored it, sought to dismiss and minimize it and generally fucked up every single step of a pandemic response. Fifteen thousand people lost their lives in a preventable circumstance, and more to come. I don't think Trump can escape culpability for this. If he loses the election, the investigations start. If he wins, we can assume the trend of holding him accountable will continue. He's already been incredibly clear that he fires whistleblowers overtly, and anyone else he suspects of disloyalty. If he loses, it's a lot easier to investigate Private Citizen Trump, than a sitting President who already flouts accountability. If they're all scum, then stay home on election day. Problem solved. Between the two of them, I've seen far more footage of Trump rambling incoherently, struggling to read, making gaffe after gaffe, and exhibiting a very shallow understanding of things going on and his role in them. Biden isn't exactly what I'd call "smooth" or polished, and his strong suit isn't speeches. But saying he's mentally deficient strikes me as another one of those "I know you are but what am I" tactics.
"But the Iraq War, the Crime Bill, his lack of support for race issues, and Supreme Court picks", cried out progressives and Bernie supporters. Edit: Biden also suffers from a medically diagnosed stutter so his word gaffes are easier to understand. Also, I don't fucking care about the above AT ALL. I'll be voting Biden this November. There are things I wish he'd do differently, but I by the large like his sales pitch and SURE AS FUCKING HELL prefer him to Trump. Edit 2: Forgot to add, that there are some key differences between Kavanaugh and Biden in that Biden is only set for 4 years and maybe 8 at most. Kavanaugh is a lifetime appointment
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...s-independence-from-trump-s-coronavirus-plans The headline oversells it a bit, but it speaks to a point I've been making for a few years now. What do Republicans think the end game of entrenching permanent minority rule is going to be? How long do they think the rest of the country is going to meekly accept it?
Biden is senile. Trump has a personality disorder, and is detached from reality. Neither is a good look, just pointing out that they're different. I think the race is pretty hard to call at the moment. Biden is leading by 6-7 in the polls, but most betting markets have it a toss up/lean Trump. It's an odd state of affairs, but it makes sense when you look at the circumstances. Coronavirus - Trump fucked up in myriad ways, but nearly all are difficult political arguments to make. A lot of people aren't going to understand the logistics management. The 'free market solves all' policy of having states, and national organizations like FEMA compete and bid against each other for critical supplies is thoroughly idiotic, but a lot of Americans won't get that. The inevitable fraud following the stimulus package will be difficult to follow, and the fact that the accusations predate the crimes will likely hurt more than help. The democrat response has been disastrous as well. The criticism of the travel bans was comically insane, but less amusing was the bizarre war they decided to start over hydroxychloroquine. It's very possible that had democrats gotten their way on this they would have killed tens of thousands of people. These two things are, for example, much easier to make as political arguments. Moreover, the democrat attacks are often the wrong ones, at least at this point. They're running with "Trump called it a hoax" as if context didn't matter and they're trying to prove him right. They're complaining about CDC cuts that never even happened. They're talking about racist attacks (encouraged by Trump!) on Asian Americans that are borderline non-existent. This party is not very smart when it comes to politics. The economy - It will still be in bad shape in November, but showing signs of improving. To be clear, by improving I mean the conditions will still be horrid, but I think they'll be trending upward relative to the bottom we'll hit through late May and July. No matter when, or in what in manner Trump roles back national restrictions to reopen the country the democrats will say it is too soon. They've made that clear. Trump will blame the current conditions on them, and find some success, although I won't try to predict to what extent. He'll also point to the last few months of upwards trends as proof that his methods are working. This is where the Biden team needs to get creative and put forth policy proposals that show both promise and can be grasped/understood by the electorate. To this point they haven't shown any signs of being creative. Biden's mental deficiency is a real problem, and to ignore it is just foolish. I would remind that his campaign certainly isn't ignoring it. They are running their 'minimal exposure' campaign for good reason. I think if Biden wins he'll be a background president, but put together a much more competent administration. I think he'll be weaker on trade, and naturally I'm most concerned about how he'll approach our relationship with China. Trump's approach has, more often than not been the correct one and the results have already started to prove many left wing predictions wrong. However, it is encouraging that recently this has become much less of a partisan issue. I don't think Biden will rein in military spending, but he'll at least slow it down. He'll be better on the environment and healthcare, but fall well short of the overhauls we need. He will be a far better president for our relations with Europe and Canada. I don't think he'll be nearly as active with the woke bullshit after being elected. I think him being elected actually gives a pretty good chance for paid maternity leave (3 months being what congress agrees to, and what Biden is currently campaigning on) to be enacted. That by itself is a pretty good reason to vote for him. Overall, I don't think this election is nearly as important as the media is going to make it out to be. There is no political realignment taking place, and neither candidate has shown a sincere interest in implementing policies that will be of great benefit to American society. I do think that Biden is much less corrupt than Trump is still a major positive for him as a candidate. He hasn't engaged in anything near the worst we've seen from politicians in this country, but he still has enough issues that it's going to hinder the pitch/Trump criticisms he'll be making in the general election. I was honestly surprised to find out that he's endorsing a constitutional amendment to publicly finance campaigns. I've long thought that this is both necessary and the best solution we have available. How the fuck you actually pass it, who knows? I have doubts about how sincere he is in really fighting for it, but at least he's getting the idea some attention.
Yeah I just don't understand this. That seems to be the loudest drum banging right now, and it's a real tough position to stand on. Everything against Biden now starts with him having dementia, or being too old, or not mentally there, or senile or whatever way they wanna question his mental competence. Biden is 77 and in pretty good health. Trump is 73, morbidly obese, and straight from the loony bin. Though are a lot of things to criticize them both on (Trump far outweighing Biden, but still), calling one or the other mentally incompetent is like saying the Nazis were bad because they had ugly uniforms. I mean, ok, whatever. You're missing the point. Every time I hear that now it's hard not to ignore the rest of what they have to say because I'm focusing on supressing the urge to laugh. Ok, Biden is old. You aren't wrong, you're just an idiot.