I'm outside smoking at the bar, dirty man I am. So I don't have time to post all my thoughts on this... but Why do you read this shit? The people writing this have no idea what's going on. They're fucking hacks. Of course the nations that would have benefited from TPP have responded with aggression. That is to be expected. Like, everyone knew this was going to happen. Most of the left hated the TPP when it was first announced. What changed? How has your perspective been altered by Trump's policies? What do you think the correct solution was?
Pacific nations want free trade; free trade is an economic boon to all involved. They were fully prepared to let the United States lead, and to enter into a trading partnership that included, and was led by, the United States. With the Trump election, they are losing trust in the United States and its trade policy, but aren't suddenly going to join the US in protectionist economic self destruction. Enter China, ready and waiting with their own pacific trade deal in which they are the dominant economy and leading state and the United States is excluded. China's economy and sphere of influence grow, that of the United States shrinks. We may have been the first choice for homecoming queen, but the prom isn't just going to grind to a halt because we sit at home and pout about our dress. It will move on without us, to our detriment.
I feel like history teachers are going to have a lot of fun at our expense. "Fill in the blank: Shortly after an election where Donald Trump promised everything and explained nothing what was the first major sign that something was amiss:_______ A. He had his children sit in on meetings with foreign diplomats despite concerns of business ethics and nepotism. B. He nominated a senator for attorney general who decades previously was denied a judgeship for racist remarks. C. He tweeted false claims about saving jobs from going to Mexico. D. He settled a fraud lawsuit to the tune of $25 million. E. All of the above."
The TPP is/was fucking evil, and I, for one, am glad to see that it's probably not going to go through. Here in Canada it called for us to adopt more of a US-based copyright system, provided the right for US companies to sue our various governments to recoup future revenue, insane level of Internet controls by the US, and a whole bunch of other WTF kind of stuff. I didn't get his from some fake Liberal news source... I read the draft that was originally agreed to in concept. It was a backroom deal for big corporations to have more power over foreign governments. I'm all for Free Trade, but I don't want to become a pawn to some big US Company.
For sure the proposal was flawed, and needed to be reworked in sections (the copyright in particular). But we're wholesale abandoning free trade with the Pacific Rim at this point.
Yep, and that's bad. Very bad. But anyone who thinks that TPP was the answer to that is seriously uninformed.
We would have been ok going back to the negotiating table and saying it needs major rework. Hell we probably would have been ok tearing up the whole thing entirely and saying "we're committed to free trade in the region, but this deal just wasn't it." But right now countries are looking at us thinking we're about to back out of NAFTA of all things and have zero confidence of any meaningful trade agreement ever getting done, and they're moving on.
NAFTA should be heavily revised or upended altogether. Exporting industrial production and importing other nations' consumerism only works for so long until you start hitting diminishing returns. As for TPP, there will be another agreement and the US will be in it. China needs us to be and they know it. They are more anxious to put one together because it will help stabilize Asian markets which they are in desperate need of. TPP is a cluster-fuck and we were right to stay out of it.
Any response to Ford deciding to keep the Lincoln factory in Kentucky? Or apple discussing manufacturing iPhone's in America? And as far as Sessions is concerned I know he has a past but he has also been the biggest champion of Rosa Parks. It is easy to call any southern Senator a racist but try looking at the entire history instead of just one time in his life. I'm more concerned on the possibility that Trump could go full Reagan and decide that all the mayors who decide to ignore federal law to be sanctuary cities face the possibility of a cut off of all federal funding. Personally I hope he does and they should all face charges because federal law supercedes all state/city/county/whatever law.
I'm drunk, but you beat me to it. The theory postulated isn't even possible. China would enter a great depression. It is a weak bluff by a nation that is entirely dependent on our economy. I am at a complete loss as to how anyone could think China has the option to pull out of the US market. How is this supposed to work? These Asian nations start mass purchasing of Chinese goods overnight, even though many of them are export economies themselves and don't have a fraction of the consumer market to match the US? Put the tariffs in. What a load of horse shit. Also, Japan hates them. I'm looking forward to using that leverage.
Dude. I don't care if you are saying "pull out" or "can pursue a different path." They can't. It makes no difference how you want to phrase it.
It sounds like you are arguing semantics for a scenario that is neither threatening, nor possible. What you are talking about cannot happen. If you are making some "in 40 years" argument then so be it. The second we offer to lower a tariff 1% they will throw that deal in the trash bin. Their propaganda machine has been rambling about this shit since Trump got elected. Whatever they sign in the interim doesn't concern me in the slightest.
There are numerous nations in the Pacific Rim that want stronger free trade. The United States was set up to be the lynchpin of that trade arrangement, yielding a significantly advantageous trade position. Such a deal excluded China (and India), but that doesn't mean the United States would stop trading with China, or that China would stop manufacturing goods for the US market. Similarly, China moving to take that leadership position that the US has vacated does not mean they are ending trade with the US either. It just means that they will be accrue the trade advantages of this multinational trade arrangement instead of the US.
We won't get to bypass marginally lower tariffs that are already screwing us? Darn. Guess we'll have to set our own. I love that of the three biggest economies, one is our ally, and the other two are our whores. America pays well.
I guess we're taking a fundamentally different philosophical approach. What you are saying,or at least what I can gather from your intentions of your economic worldview, is good in the short run for consumers and the upper class, but has no long term plan that is economically healthy. Nor does it provide a net benefit to American workers, or tax revenue, both of which are possible. Why not do it? With trade, if you believe in this sort of reaction, you're a nice guy. I want to start fucking them back.
I'm saying that "free trade is good" and "price controls lead to shortages" are about the only two things you'll ever get a large number of economists to agree on. Free trade is a net benefit to all countries involved; the distribution of that benefit is an internal matter to each country and we shouldn't throw out the huge gains of globalization just because we're too stupid to distribute those gains equitably amongst our citizens. We should fix that problem internally; to the outside world we should look no different.
This is true, but the variables require occasional renegotiation of the terms from time to time. China is facing an increasing unemployment rate, ironically because it's starting to export industrial jobs to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Bangladesh and as a result, it's labor force is over capacity. Another major factor is China's debt. The US's debt-to-GDP ratio is about 85%, which is high. China's is over 250%, which could be devastating if not managed effectively. China's private sector is handcuffed to the public sector. Economic issues caused by the former require resolution by the latter, which in turn means artificial stimulation ("wet powder") of the economy in the short term and capitalist stimulation in the long. China has no choice but to support any free trade deal it can get its hands on. Looking at the numbers, China isn't growing as fast as it seems. It's essentially course correcting. And Kampf, this is not the best thread to contribute to while drunk.
Free trade is good as long as everyone is on even footing. Free trade becomes a gigantic problem when one country can undercut another country within a trade deal knowing it would take destroying the deal in it's entirety to make any changes. When China/Vietnam/Thailand etc want to institute basic workers rights, a minimum wage, environmental protections, and safety standards to their products, we can think about engaging in some trade deals which are mutually beneficial. Until that happens, someone is going to be taking it deep in the ass, and if history is the guiding light, the US is the country in need of lube.