Elephants and Jackasses...

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/...why-reopening-isnt-enough-to-save-the-economy

From a summary of a Harvard economist (Raj Chetty) study:

"First up, consumer spending. Typically, Chetty said, recessions are driven by a drop in spending on durable goods, like refrigerators, automobiles and computers. This recession is different. It's driven primarily by a decline in spending at restaurants, hotels, bars and other service establishments that require in-person contact. We already knew that. But what the team's data show is that this decline in spending is mostly in rich ZIP codes, whose businesses saw a 70% drop-off in their revenue. That compares with a 30% drop in revenue for businesses in poorer ZIP codes.

Second, jobs. This 70% fall in revenue at businesses in rich ZIP codes led those businesses to lay off nearly 70% of their employees. These employees are mostly low-wage workers. Businesses in poorer ZIP codes laid off about 30% of their employees. The bottom line is that "reductions in spending by the rich have led to loss in jobs mostly for low-income individuals working in affluent areas."

Third, the government rescue effort. They find it has mostly failed. The $500 billion Paycheck Protection Program, which has given forgivable loans to businesses with fewer than 500 employees, doesn't appear to have done much to save jobs. When the researchers compare the employment trends of businesses with fewer than 500 employees with those with more, the smaller businesses eligible for PPP don't see a relative boost after the program went into effect. It looks like the program didn't do its job of saving jobs. Meanwhile, the stimulus checks, while increasing spending, did not have much stimulative effect because the spending mostly flowed to big companies like Amazon and Walmart. The money didn't flow to the rich ZIP code, in-person service businesses most affected by the downturn. Overall, the federal rescue package, they find, has failed to rescue the businesses and jobs getting hammered most by the pandemic.

Finally, there are state-permitted reopenings: They don't seem to boost the economy either. Chetty and his team compare, for example, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Minnesota allowed reopening weeks before Wisconsin, but if you look at spending patterns in both states, Minnesota did not see any boost compared with Wisconsin after it reopened. "The fundamental reason that people seem to be spending less is not because of state-imposed restrictions," Chetty said. "It's because high-income folks are able to work remotely, are choosing to self-isolate and are being cautious given health concerns. And unless you fundamentally address that concern, I think there's limited capacity to restart the economy."

Reiterating here that all the government proclamations aren't going to make the virus go away. If the virus doesn't go away, the economy doesn't fully bounce back. When the virus goes away, you have businesses that have learned (yet again) they can do without some of the excess staff, they will do more with less, automate more, etc. I've seen estimates that as much as 42% of the jobs lost to COVID aren't coming back. At 40m jobs, that's 16 MILLION jobs gone. That's stupefying. That's every employed person in Texas, Florida, Maryland, North Carolina and Georgia and then some.

There may be another stimulus, but when the first one didn't work....will it matter?

It blows my mind that the headlines are not "HOLY FUCK WHAT THE FUCK HOW THE FUCK" with just a giant pic of Lewis Black and a spreadsheet.

 

If you, or any of the smart people on the board, had a decent nest egg (say $400k) and were looking to invest it, what would you be looking at? Wait for another stock drop? Residential rental income? Commercial? Had a hypothetical conversation with a buddy of mine and he'd throw it at the stock market when the next wave hits and stocks drop again. My opinion was to wait for the foreclosures and people abandoning 2nd homes.

 

This is not advice, nor would I give any in regards to how anyone spends their money. My Grandmother (RIP) always said the only thing they aren't making any more of is land. Unless a bubble hits land almost always goes up in value.

 

Tesla. Once their affordable hatchback and fully electric big-rig (automatic transmission, no brake or engine noise, 500 km range) goes into production, at least by then I hope that people realize how stupid it is to keep making gas cars.

 

Yea give it a few more months of people not really working and all sorts of toys will start popping up cheap.

 

I love how the companies just take the money and fire everybody anyway.

But Trump said kung flu, we need do something about this!

Fuck me.

 

used gun market is gonna be funny in a few months. All these first time gun buyers during civil unrest, they'll hit the market never fired or lightly used at the range like once. Or they bought something without realizing it was a bit expensive to feed and was all that was available. 300 blackouts are gonna be everywhere come xmas.

 

Real estate is going to be topsy turvy, so it's not as safe a bet as it used to be, especially commercial. A friend of mine is trying to buy a commercial building in MD and they are starting to plummet, and no one knows what bottom is because no one knows when/if people are getting back to work.

For $400k, you might be able to buy a decent apartment complex in a major metro area. A friend of mine did that in Baltimore, and a 20-unit building averages $1500/month per unit. It's not all full, and there's plenty of expenses in cleaning and maintenance, but he's no longer in debt, and that was 2015. For that matter, there's some places in the DC metro area where you can build 5-10 houses for $75k each and sell them for $225+.

Depends on the goal of the investment, but for $400k, I'd say you're looking at low-end development money. Worst case, throw the bulk of it into index funds and try and build some residential housing to flip. I'm a bit biased, because my dad runs a masonry company, and if you're within 20 miles of an international airport, you don't lose money on housing.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/23/republican-senate-trump-treason-obama-336097

"In an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network on Monday, Trump accused Obama of treason but did not provide evidence to back up the allegation. It’s a constant refrain from Trump, whose allies have ramped up their attacks against Obama in recent months — accusing the former president of illegally targeting Trump and his associates during the 2016 campaign and the presidential transition period."

In the vein of "Trump accuses people of things he's actually done" this one is kind of scary. Also, holy fucking shit, TREASON, and the Senate is generally like "(Sigh). No idea."
Trump accuses Obama of treason, and Senators like Lindsey Graham, Moscow Mitch McConnell and John Corryn refuse to engage. Corryn said "“I’ve got more important things to worry about." What the FUCK could be more important?

 

Yeah, this is the pot calling the kettle black. Trump is ridiculous here, he's just not alone. The idea that the democrats decided to drop all of their investigations right all the alleged 'proof' came out has never made even a little sense.

Trump is guilty of plenty, being a jackass here for one, but he hasn't committed treason.

 

A lot, honestly. The election is in a little more than 4 months. Given how slow everything is moving due to the pandemic, expecting anything to come out of this would be a pipe dream. This is yet another instance of Trump manipulating the media by saying or doing something wild while McConnell et. al. do nefarious shit like pack the judiciary with rightwing judges to lifetime appointments or suppress voter turnout. I'd be willing to bet that the only way a Republican will win a contested election in the future is through gerrymandering and other ratfuckery like intimidating voters or fucking with polling places, because it isn't about policy anymore. It's about owning the libs. We're at the point now that if a Republican was on fire, he'd vote against fire stations because the fire chief voted for Obama one time.

 

Yeah, they can hammer him just fine on the bigger stuff. If it was someone else it would be big news, but this is like an every day thing for Trump.

 

You cannot seriously believe this. Please tell me this is just frustration coming out.

 

Yeah, Trump was polling about even until recently.

The republicans had 4 years to show they knew better than the democrats and they bombed. Hard. Oh man, that healthcare plan... and I use the word plan VERY loosely there.

With that in mind though the democrats are still not well thought of outside their base. I think Biden will win, but I don't think people are going to be super impressed with him either.

 

Frustration is a definite part of it. Then I see Kentucky close all but one polling place that is supposed to serve 600,000 people, most of whom are black. I mean, in recent elections, Republicans have gained control of legislatures despite losing the plurality of voters.

The Supreme Court struck down a provision of the Voting Rights Act that essentially says that certain states with a history of discrimination that make changes to any voting procedures must be approved by the federal government. This cannot be enforced until Congress comes up with a new way of determining which states and localities require federal monitoring of elections.

On its face, that looks all well and good, but why would Republican lawmakers, the ones who are disproportionately affected by this, be in any kind of hurry to stop tilting the playing field in their favor?

 

So do you think the Republicans are the only ones who do it or that the Democrats are bad at it? I know that sounds snarky, but I mean the question sincerely.

 

Gerrymandering and other electoral shenanigans have a long history, and no political party is innocent of it over its history. Even today it continues in both parties. That said, in recent history the Republicans have embraced it and engaged in it as a national strategy in a manner and to a degree that the Democrats have not. Things like Project REDMAP, the actions taken after Shelby County v. Holder, the coordination of various efforts across multiple states (voter ID laws, Crosscheck, etc), and pretty much everything the state of North Carolina has done, are all indicative of a much larger and more coordinated effort than the relatively ad-hoc local efforts that we've seen from Democrats in places like Maryland or Illinois.

 

So are they bad at it or refusing to engage in what they feel is a bad faith practice? Once again not being snarky about it. The Majority Whip is from here and his district is definitely drawn up for him to keep office. I just feel there's a quid pro quo about things when you get to that level and everyone is in the game.