https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/10/coronavirus-relief-talks-congress-trump-393098 No deal in sight, and the GOP leadership is blaming the Democrats, who have absolutely no incentive to come to a deal right now. Everything that Trump is doing out of desperation are things they are going to point to in a few short months and say "see? They could have done something about this all along, and they chose not to." Also, if the sticking point comes down to removing the payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, two of the few programs that work well and should remain un-fucked, then yeah no deal. The GOP borrowed heavily from the Social Security surplus (generated by years of illegal immigrants paying into the system and never drawing out of it), and have set a priority to dismantle it to avoid paying it back. I remember a push to put all that money in the stock market, and two "once in a lifetime" recessions within 20 years killed that horrible idea. From inside the bubble, FEMA money is going to states for unemployment: Iowa, Arizona, New Mexico and Louisiana. https://www.fema.gov/news-release/20200815/fema-announces-first-states-receive-lost-wages-grants As expected, swing states and political favorites are the first ones to go. This gets bad, because $44b in unemployment will go scary fast, and we are in a record-setting hurricane season, and most of that money was allocated to pay for the $250b+ bills for Harvey, Irma, Maria and the CA wildfires. This time next month, when the hurricanes are bad and the DRF is running low, only Congress can appropriate more funding, and again....absolutely no incentive for them to do so.
“....and that is why he should be put against a wall and shot. For good and all.” Hopefully more Republicans will grow some balls like this guy did. But I’m sure they are accusing him of being a Soros plant by now.
There have been a lot of good ads this cycle, but this is the first one that I would consider showing to "the other side" with the expectation that it'll get through to some of them. The rest are just kind of "riling up the base by dunking on the opposition" type ads. This one is a stark warning from one of their own.
"there's a reason he's the FORMER chief of staff of DHS" also curious what @downndirty thinks of this
I struggle with the tv ads, because they are structured for maximum emotional impact, minimum critical thinking. Did Trump advocate for ending Individual Assistance to California? Yes, but he also signed the disaster declaration authorizing it. It's been a tricky thing with him and FEMA: he'll sign the declaration, and that's all we really require from WH to do our jobs. He may have buyer's remorse, and he certainly talks a lot of shit, but after he signs it there's not a lot he does (with the glaring exception of COVID-19). Most of the policy waivers and exemptions come from DHS, and sure he could be more helpful, but....from our perspective, the likelihood of getting the WH involved and it being an improvement or help is tiny. He expects governors and states to bend the knee and thank him for federal assistance, when that is a legal entitlement. When that doesn't happen, he pitches a fit, typically on Twitter and causes hell for our external affairs. However, he's not sending DHS or FEMA orders to cut off funding or assistance. Again, entitlement, meaning it would technically take an act of Congress to do that. He could deploy an EO or a few other actions to interfere, but to my knowledge he hasn't. Most of 2018 for me was in Puerto Rico, dealing with Maria. His schtick was far from helpful, but he didn't derail the process (especially when the diaspora of Puerto Ricans centered on swing states like Florida and Texas). COVID-19 was the first time the WH was actively derailing a process and fucking things up. The California debacle was made worse by reports that PG&E caused the fires in the first place, and if memory serves, they ended up providing a mutli-billion dollar settlement to the state (that should cover that 25% federal cost share obligation nicely). The other thing about Trump is that he tends to hire people who need him desperately. The folks in his administration tend to be more JV, top tier talent doesn't want to work for him. I know a LOT of Senior Executives that are riding out this administration rather than have "Trump Administration SES" on their resume, hell I've hired a few. He hires for "loyalty" and is used to greed, not lust for power. The last time anyone who took their career seriously signed up for WH duty was probably 2018. After the furlough shit-show (remember kids, that "cost-saving" measure cost us more money than letting the fucking government stay open), most of the SES crowd or the folks who would be qualified to work in any WH said "fuck this". The CoS in most of our organizations is the Chief Admin Officer, who handles a lot of variety. Look again at this video: this isn't a senior person, this dude is pretty young to be running something at that level. It's very unlikely he would have been granted such a senior role, even as acting, in another administration. You're going to see a LOT of these people realize they are now worse off than not having had the job at all, and are a "Honey Boo-Boo"-esque celebrity. Who wants to hire a Trump Administration official? I don't believe (or care) that this kid suddenly got a conscience and switched teams. I think he's trying to ensure some level of career survival, and to be honest....I hope it doesn't work. It's not like he didn't know what kind of a shit show he was signing up for, and for most of these people it's blind, raw ambition that drove them there. Once they arrived and realized they were in a meat grinder of either blame or incompetence or babysitting, they all of the sudden regret joining Emperor Spray Tan? Not buying it. It's worth noting that Obama had 2 DHS secretaries and one acting, while Trump had 5 in a single term, with controversy stemming from almost all of the appointments (Chad Wolf's appointment was apparently illegal). Few presidents have a hard time finding qualified appointees, and for most administrations that's one of the things they come into office ready to do: staff the offices with their people. For someone like Clinton, it was a huge strength. Trump's ability to staff the offices has been an incredible weakness, one that is critically under-reported. Trump hires people for loyalty, not talent, thus undermining them in his very own eyes, so when he needs info from a trusted source, or when he genuinely needs expert advice, he has no one he both trusts, respects and is objective. This is the main difference between Trump and Bush (and one reason I think people assumed it would be safe to elect such a buffoon): Bush had capable people around him that he trusted to do the actual running of the nation. The other thing: the "bombs" he drops in this video are all well-known and well-documented. Trump's twitter is more controversial than anything this guy has to say. I can certainly imagine him being construed as a "swamp resident bureaucrat" that never should have held the job he did or the access he had. This is my issue with the Democratic campaign: they can't do any damage to Trump worse than his self-inflicted wounds. We know he doesn't care, we know he doesn't read, we know everything is to further his political agenda, his supporters assume that's how all presidents work. We don't need to hear it from one of his many bureaucratic bastard children.
It’s a great litmus test on who in your country is beyond hope. If they watch that and it still doesn’t change their mind, herd them into the “invalid” pen. Others are still worth saving. Remember this quote forever: “Magical Authorities”. That was a thing that was said by a sitting President. Possibly the worst one you’ve ever had.
People will say Buchanan, as if the inability to prevent an inevitable conflict, that had already turned violent years before his election, is somehow a bigger failing than Trump's unending list of personal and professional failures and betrayals.
That guy on your $20 murdered/slaughtered native Americans by his own hand, he was one of the worst people who ever lived and probably would have murdered the entire world if he were able to. How he has not yet procured the wrath of Cancel Culture is nothing short of a cosmic mystery. But if I were to guess, I would say it’s because he founded the Democratic Party and they don’t want to admit that he was a fucking MONSTER.
Here's the thing: Trump has been a distasteful president, all damned day. But he hasn't really DONE anything, either, has he? His tax bill was the only major legislation. He golfed a lot and fleeced taxpayers of millions of dollars. He certainly stress-tested democracy. His handling of COVID-19 was probably the worst error he's made in office, as we see it right now. He exacerbated existing problems, without fixing anything yet he didn't create new problems. Don't get me wrong, we will suffer the consequences of his "leadership" especially internationally, as he exposed a number of our weaknesses to the world, and the opportunity cost of not having competent leadership in place will take years to emerge. However, I would argue that GW. Bush will go down far worse: pointless wars, surveillance state, financial deregulation that didn't even let the man get out of office before it up in his face. He kneecapped energy solutions to benefit his oil friends (we'll be oil dependent and carbon fucked another decade because of GW) and let's not pretend that his family relationship with the house of Saud was wholly in America's interests. Bush Sr. being head of the CIA and then going into politics: no way did the power and information he had go unabused (that's the kind of coincidence of "I'm both a major cocaine trafficker AND a lottery winner, because Florida!"). It led to a family dynasty that we all accept as naturally occurring of their own merit, forgetting that the Bush family in the 1960's was....less than prominent. It's one thing that scares the absolute fuck out of me: someone leaving NSA and going into politics now, with exponentially more information and power than Bush Sr. had. GW was an embarrassment, but in a doddering kind of way, not in a racist Florida grandparent kind of way. I'd argue that's more dangerous because with Trump you just stop listening at some point, Bush had the danger of a broken clock: you couldn't not look in case it was one of those two times a day he was right. Also, all the things Trump thrives on, Bush enabled and built into the GOP machine: Fox News didn't jump the shark until Bush was in office. The dog whistle racism the GOP used for decades finally emerged under Bush. Turning the GOP into the party of guns, religion and "patriotism", and the Islamophobia all peaked under Bush. Trump is a bad president, but I think Bush was worse. The challenges Bush faced were worse, and he failed them harder. The things that suck about our system today, from the TSA to campaign finance, many of them have a Bush-era law to thank. I think Trump will go down similar to Gerald Ford or Carter: sandwiched between giants, an oddity of history and the less said about their circumstances the better. The flip side is really going to depend on how nasty this election is and how many investigations get spun up if Trump loses. I still believe the deal is "you lose, go quietly, and we'll let shit die. You can keep the money you stole, but you are retired until the statute of limitations runs out. If not, we dismantle your "empire" piece by piece until all your kids are in jail and you are all penniless." Or more succinctly: once Trump's not in office, there's a world of terrifying transparency awaiting him: grades, tax returns, business dealings, you name it. Citizen Trump will make for one easy lawsuit, and his aura of "strength" will crumble. History will remember Trump as the first troll president, and judge him by the extent of his con job, depending on the next few months and what gets revealed.
If the dems win and they just let Trump off the hook for everything, even after volume 5 of the senate intel report came out today basically confirming everything he's ever accused him of, it will be unforgivable. To fight all the naked corruption to just let bygones be bygones would piss people off to the point of staying home for the next middterms and lose the majority. No one in Trump's circle deserves a moment of peace after they leave office.
The alternative is Trump getting investigated and sued ad nauseam and retaliates by airing God knows what dirty laundry. Trump doesn't seem to understand consequences of his actions and he's in his 70's. He could do damage on his way out, and Biden would be foolish to press the issue if he doesn't have to. Hell, Trump will have a hell of a time containing the "tell-all" books from the shitheels he actually hired, much less the threat of investigation or suit. Look at the birther nonsense: for Trump to be damaging, the truth isn't even a consideration. Imagine what will happen when hes out of office, indicted for a dozen things and pulls open Twitter and goes, "let me tell you about (Epstein, Qanon, Illuminati, etc.)". All the "her emails" crowd that believe every word he says (somehow) would flood the electorate, and that would be the dialog for Biden's entire first (and likely only) term. Trump will experiment with a bunch of lies until he finds one that gets the reaction he's looking for and then he'll light into it (see: Obama birther vs. Harris birther). It'd be even scarier when he's tweeting out shit that is classified (like he's done several times) or has trade secrets to expose. Biden needs to keep Trump quiet. He'll need that chunk of the electorate to de-radicalize, and if Trump is compliant, he'll have GOP members willing to help. If the third of the country that supports Trump doesn't rejoin the politics of reality, we've set the stage for Trump to be the first in a series of extremist ass-clowns riling up half the country. Think "Tea Party" but driven by personalities like Trump: Alex Jones, Ted Cruz, etc. Biden's appeal is that it's safe to vote for him, because he's not Trump and he's not AOC either. He's invoking the nostalgia of there being a centrist in charge, one that's not as polarizing as Obama was, in the hopes that he can push the center right back to sanity (where it was 20 years ago). The GOP will get a pretty big sting from this election loss, and the current GOP faces aren't exactly well-liked. They know they are outnumbered, they know the demographics aren't in their favor and most of them are aware that the current climate is unsustainable: you have districts electing people that literally refuse to work with everyone, and it turns into redneck Sharia law. Remember, it's the intolerant minority that actually rules, but it's short lived, and the donors aren't lining up to fund these people. They will want to pivot away from this loss in significant ways and lose the extremist arm of the party. Dismantling the Trump empire sounds great (especially since he's fucked over taxpayers to build it), but it accomplishes nothing in terms of removing Trump from the political calculus and that's the real objective here. Biden will likely have to contend with the same menagerie of shitbags that acquitted Trump's impeachment, and he can say "they had their chance, they impeached him and nothing happened". I think once Trump is out of office, you'll see things like his tax returns, his voting history, his college transcript, etc. trickle out (as part of tell-all books, perhaps?), because no fear of retribution then. That will weaken his cult of personality enough to convince most of his supporters that he's a con man, and the resulting disgust is what will give Biden leverage over McConnell and the rest of the shitbags. They need to capitalize off of the post-Trump hangover, and they can't do that with Trump tweeting about every investigation and lawsuit. I don't think you could stop the state of NY from suing Trump (they hate him that much). But I think Biden and whoever he appoints to lead the DOJ will strike a deal that amounts to a silent pardon. The rest of El Tangerino's cabinet, however, might get crucified: Barr is probably first up. I can't imagine anyone breaking a sweat to come to their rescue, and that's exactly the kind of deal Trump will take: DOJ nails people like Barr to the cross, no one in the GOP will give a shit (see: no one wants to hire a former Trump official), and Trump just has to be quiet and retire. He's been very cautious about pardoning the folks who have gone down during his term, and I think we're about to see why: he has no loyalty to them and is setting a precedent to foist the consequences of his actions onto them. If it's ugly, it gets real ugly. Like, gunning for Kavanaugh and impeaching McConnell ugly. All this hinges on a big if: Biden wins.
The problem is that it's a failed strategy. We didn't hold Nixon accountable for Watergate, we didn't hold Reagan accountable for Iran-Contra, we didn't hold Bush accountable for Iraq, and all it led us to is bolder and bolder criminality and corruption, and a more fervently uncompromising and unhinged base.
Nixon could have been held accountable, but Ford made sure that not only can it not happen, but you’re not allowed by law to wish or even fantasize about it ever happening. Not only did Regan escape punishment, he escaped being hung or put against a wall and shot. Because he committed high treason, and nobody wants to admit that for some reason. But it was still treason. He sold arms to terrorists to fund other terrorists. Reagan was a despicable piece of shit who tripled the national debt, and Republicans act like he should be the fifth Mt. Rushmore head LOL
Oh, just in case anyone cared, the Senate Intelligence Committee released their report today which confirmed collusion between the Trump Campaign and the Russians. Not that anything matters anymore.
"they shouldn't have done it this close to the election!!!" - people who were cool with the Comey saying Clinton was under investigation like two minutes before everyone voted
Wow, so it wasn't a liberal hoax. I'd gloat if they 1) stopped it and 2) there wasn't an election in 80 days and 3) they didn't publicize a fucking playbook on "how to up-fuck Democracy by trolling the internet." Glad our intelligence structure worked though.