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Elephants and Jackasses...

Discussion in 'Permanent Threads' started by Nettdata, Oct 14, 2016.

  1. Juice

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    Yeah, on a completely different matter.
     
  2. Revengeofthenerds

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  3. Juice

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    Sick meme, Facebook Aunt. It doesn’t change the fact that it warrants a legitimate investigation. That doesn’t mean his guilty, but the allegations are clearly serious enough for the FBI to be reviewing it.
     
  4. Aetius

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    I mean, the balance of probability is that it's total nonsense. FBI should look at it, sure, just like the FBI looks at a ton of stuff. But so far there has been no accusation of wrong doing from any credible actor, so the idea that the media or the electorate should waste its time on it, just because the Republicans really really don't want this election to be about healthcare or basic competency, is silly.
     
  5. Juice

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    Well it’s certainly not an implicit or de facto endorsement for Trump, but I’d say the credibility of the accusations are more or less the same as Christopher Steele, which yielded 3 years of media attention and a special counsel investigation. That’s really all I have to say about it. It’s worth not just ignoring.
     
  6. Aetius

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    Steele alone is far more credible than Giuliani, but the Steele dossier was hardly the only component of the Russia story, and in fact didn't even show up until the story was well underway. The original basis for the story came from intelligence assessments about Russia's activities (which subsequent investigations have corroborated).
     
  7. Rush-O-Matic

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    2016:
    Trump is Tweeting and making people crazy
    Trump is called a buffoon.
    Democrat candidate is a career politician.
    Democrat candidate accused of email scandal.
    Media ignores it.
    Polls show Democrat leading.
    Media predicts Democrat win.
    Trump wins.

    2020:
    deja vu?

    I mean, I guess the main difference is that a Democrat was the incumbent in 2016.
     
  8. Revengeofthenerds

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    I think the main difference is that the polls were still within the margin of error for Clinton in 2016 and trump was riding a wave of momentum. Now that momentum has shifted, and he’s facing a challenger with the largest lead in history at this point.
     
  9. Aetius

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    Media broke it. The Clinton email story started with a New York Times article. The entire story was propped up by the media. The email story got more airtime than climate change and "grab 'em by the pussy" combined.
     
  10. toytoy88

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    Remember 2016?

    Poll.jpg
     
  11. Aetius

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    This is what I remember from 2016:

    [​IMG]

    Hardly a ridiculous prediction.
     
  12. Revengeofthenerds

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    It's also worth noting that it took a perfect storm for trump to win in 2016, and Biden and Clinton are polar opposites. Moderates were holding their nose to vote for Clinton (one of the least likeable candidates in history) while only the party purists liked her. Trump had a legitimate argument when he asked "what do you have to lose?" I don't agree with a vote for him then, but I understand it. Now, we've seen the 4 years, and we have a lot to lose. Moderates, like myself, love Biden and Kamala, and party purists are holding their nose to vote because he isn't left enough. But at least he isn't trump, and it's easier to get stubborn card carrying party members to vote than it is those with no real party affiliation. Also, Biden leads with the 65+ demographic which has historically gone significantly republican. Plus there's 4 more years of people who are old enough to vote for the first time, and that's a generation that is extremely politically active.

    Comparing this to 2016 is a fool's errand, and in my opinion it has all the makings of a landslide for Biden.
     
  13. xrayvision

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    I think this is closer to 2018 as far as enthusiasm is concerned, maybe even 2008. Additionally, if the early voting momentum holds up, we could get 160 million votes. That high of a turnout almost guarantees Trump loses. There are just more Dems in the country than GOP. It’s just that the gop tend to vote in higher numbers and more consistently. But there is a ceiling.
     
  14. xrayvision

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    Also, Trump won by very slim margins in just a few states. If Biden has made up those differences, which are like 20k votes per state, in the rust belt, he will be fine. I don’t think the race is the same one from 2016.
     
  15. Nettdata

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    It's not even close... anyone that says otherwise has their heads up their asses.

    Trump in 2016 was a "let's give him a shot to see what would happen" experiment, and way too many people saw what that experiment turned into and will say "fuck no, not again."

    Sure, there will be the Cult of Trump and die-hard GOP that will vote for him because "not Democrat", but there's no way it plays out like 2016.

    I mean just look at the early voter turnout... that's not COVID related, that's all about "oh HELL no", make sure the vote gets in as soon as fucking possible.
     
  16. Crown Royal

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    The problem if he loses is that his cult will continue. Unlike other presidents the people that follow him with intent are just straight-up dangerous fucktards. This was their Guy, the one who would mould the country back into its simple, hot dogs and apple pie Good-ol’ timey period that never actually existed.

    And although their crew may nowhere be as large as the opposition, to be fair it does weigh the same.
     
  17. kindalas

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  18. xrayvision

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    Just watched the debate. I think the moderation actually helped Trump. And by helped, he didn’t throw his feces across the stage. When he’s poorly controlled, he tends to melt down and look more ridiculous.

    Trump of course is a serial liar. But debates don’t actually do a good job displaying actual facts. Biden stuttered more than last time.

    And anyone who is shocked by what Biden said about the oil industry hasn’t seen the absolute blood bath already underway in Houston with the oil and gas jobs. They are in the middle of 40k layoffs this year alone. Mostly due to lack of demand and falling oil prices.

    An earlier end to Covid would probably have slowed that somewhat. But we are about 20-30 years away from a complete phase out.
     
  19. Revengeofthenerds

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    so you mean our beaches will actually be pretty again?
     
  20. xrayvision

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    In 20 years maybe. Our beaches are fucking gross. I’m just spoiled from growing up on Florida beaches.

    I will say that oil and gas jobs have already hit their peak and will only continue to fall. Those clinging to their jobs in hopes they survive another round of layoffs don’t have too much time. My wife is actively looking for a career change.