What, on the Dem ticket? Or do you think the hearings will cleanse enough Trumpists from the party that she would have their support?
Eh, right now, DeSantis 2024, and I don't see that going well. Trump will not get the nod (possibly due to investigations) split the party, and hand Biden (or whomever) a layup. I see the Jan 6th investigation media show spinning up in the middle of primary season, and if it works, the sequel will be out in November. Also, that has the lovely effect of reminding the Trump die-hards that the election was stolen, voting is pointless, stay home. Cheney is legit the future of the party: impeccable pedigree, not an old white dude, pragmatic about the damage Trump has done, and yet just centrist enough to be welcomed back in the fold after the Trump era is over. She can bring back the suburban white moms that Trump lost, and she can bring new people to the GOP by playing a longer game. Also, as a rep from Wyoming, she can easily move into another district in a friendlier state if she gets primaried. Which looking at recent primaries for Trump, actually starts to look like she's playing her cards well. The other thing is looking at the other fuckers in this drama, in 10 years, they'll all be/look/wish they were dead. She'll still be around, and this little piece of history will catapult her beyond a minor seat in Congress. The only other player who could even still be a factor is Paul Ryan or Mike Pence, both unlikely. Nikki Haley is doing the same thing, I think because the GOP women/minorities recognize they can't stay tied to Trump much longer. He's never recovered from losing the soccer moms, and Haley/Cheney and a few others are betting he never will, and that they are the canaries in the coal mine.
Banking on cleansing the trumpists. Thus far into the hearings (just opening statements obviously), with the clear direction of absolving Pence of anything -- which from my understanding of the events is accurate and should be done -- then there could well be some trumpists who take the Pence train out.
In short, yeah. Basically all of my in-laws still think trump should/will run again, and that Jan 6 was no big deal. But they all also have a degree of sympathy for what he did to Pence. I think the hearings could convince a lot of trumpers to jump over to pence and hope that he's the next savior of America or whatever. At least the ones who aren't completely on the Q bandwagon and in it more for the politics/racism aspect. They'll see an out and take that one.
I'm fascinated by your take on this. Cheney has almost no support in the current version of the GOP. The Dems are going to get killed in the midterms, and the only way I can see Trump not getting nominated is his health failing him or actually getting prosecuted for his actions after the election (good luck).
Maybe? I’d be interested to see the overall reaction if Pence became that figure. I remember very early on in Trump’s term when the Russia news was looking like it would take off and do some damage, there were articles and editorials that were basically saying “hey, take a look at this Pence guy too! He’s pure evil!” He’d be like the new Romney - a good guy when they need to put down a worse guy, but a bad guy when he’s the only guy.
I despise Pence. But I also think that people need to get off this trump shit at some point or another. Pence would be the methadone to get people off heroine.
I guess I shouldn't be surprised to hear a bunch of Congress members were begging for presidential pardons after the 6th, but Jesus Christ. It was still fucked up to actually hear.
Think about how things have gone for Trump since January 6th, 2021. Then think about how things are trending now, and let those trends play out for the next 18-23 months. Trump's done, Cheney just wants to close the lid and flush him. After that, she can chill for a little while, and let the pendulum of history swing her way. She doesn't have OPEN support, sure, but she's not as big of a pariah as they say she is. Again, some folks in the GOP see the writing on the wall: the 2016 voters are dead or dying, and there's a precious handful of 2020 voters they want to win back. 2024 is going to be the mess that Trump leaves behind, but 2026 and beyond is where Cheney's bet will either pay out or bust. This may sound crazy, but by 2024, 2026, and 2028, the fact that COVID hit red states harder than blue may actually put some states more firmly into swing territory. A centrist GOP woman who had the balls to stand up to Trump is going to be an asset. I think the midterms will be bad for the Democrats, but the GOP is in an awkward state with some Trump loyalists finding out after they fucked around, and some cruising easily to victory. So, bad, but not the apocalypse. I also see the Biden team changing tactics pretty soon, but I dunno if that will make things better or worse. Take Trump out of the equation, and the GOP has the same problem it did in 2016: a bunch of candidates that no one can tell apart. The democrats have the opposite problem, but from an incumbent position that's not as big of a weakness. I also think the next couple of elections are going to be harder to predict, due to how the Trump voters who don't believe the election results play. Turn out in droves, or be disgusted by treason played over and over again on national television and stay home? One of the tactics I see Biden shifting on is letting the Justice Department quietly proceed with their work. The media blitz we're seeing now needed some level of thumbs up from Biden, and while I don't think it's shrewd, it's well-timed.
im very curious if Covid will have any noticeable impact on elections. We know it hit red states harder than blue, but does that directly translate to fewer votes? I know it’s a morbid question, but damn… it could really change up some things. i also think it’d be hilarious if desantis ran and then lost Florida.
Fuck yea it could. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by a little over 20k votes. Less than that in Wisconsin. If the likelihood of dying from Covid is greater with republicans than democrats, in a close state like up in the Great Lakes, it could swing a state. We’ve lost a million people to Covid. More in the south. I don’t think it could swing a deep red state. But it could hurt them in closer places. It could make Florida or a Ohio more competitive.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out with voters who don't care about partisan politics. Will they choose to ignore the generational high inflation we're experiencing, the plummeting stock market, the increased housing insecurity, the price of gas almost doubling since the inauguration, the increasing crime in large cities coupled with defunded and neutered police and DA's that refuse to prosecute criminals, our border becoming a sieve, and the supply chain issues that we're now experiencing? Will they applaud the government for ignoring these issues that affect their everyday life so we can watch our elected officials argue and point fingers at each other? I'm pretty sure we're at the point that the person having to make the choice between buying gas to get to work or buy food is much more concerned about their own personal struggles. I guess we'll see what happens.
If you're trying to understand voters who don't care about partisan politics, it might be helpful not to have your thinking fully captured by republican talking points.