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Elephants and Jackasses...

Discussion in 'Permanent Threads' started by Nettdata, Oct 14, 2016.

  1. Misanthropic

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    I’m curious why it’s so fucking difficult to follow the logic that record setting oil company profits are related to the high price of gas. Is the futures market partly to blame? Of course. But if oil companies were raising their rates to compensate for inflation their revenues would rise, not their profits. This is blatant price gouging.
     
  2. downndirty

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    From a Reddit post, so grains of salt required:
    "Oil prices are high for multiple reasons:
    1. Investors got burned from 2014-2020 because of shale oil. Many small time oil companies were bankrupt from this time period. They don't want a repeat of that. The Saudi's intentionally flooded the market with cheap oil from this same period because they wanted to weed out the other oil producers who couldn't survive with the smaller margins. Only the big players could survive. If you check the stock performance of oil companies from 2014, you were basically losing money while the rest of the stock market climbed significantly.
    2. Refining capacitiy is down because the ROI isn't there to justify building a new one when renewables are becoming a higher point of focus.
    3. The U.S. government is disincentivizing the drilling of new oil fields. Regulations are incredibly high. At the end of the day, oil companies operate the same as a regular mom-and-pop business: "Does it make financial sense?" The answer right now is no. You might remember the Keystone Pipeline XL being shut down. Well, it was initially approved so work was started. After spending a projected total of $15 billion, TC Energy then had their permit revoked by Biden. Ask yourself: Why would anyone want to take that risk? Yes, it might be allowed now. But just as easily, it can be shut down. That uncertainty is at a level where it becomes unappealing.
    4. The war decreases the amount of available oil supply because of sanctions imposed. This means you have more countries bidding on the same supply of oil driving the prices up higher.
    5. OPEC has ZERO incentive to increase the supply and lower the prices. Saudi Arabia, for instance, knows that oil is finite and that their cash cow won't be around in say, 20 years. They have been divesting away from oil quickly in preparation of this. That is why you are seeing Saudi Arabia spend billions of $ in other areas to ramp up their economy.
    Is it Biden's fault? The serious answer is no but the long answer is his initiatives are making is increasingly difficult for oil companies to want to increase production and refining capacity. When you want to go green, there is a transition that will happen. This is that transition period where you are going to see high oil prices for the foreseeable future in the hopes that it will pay off in the long run when renewables are the dominant player and EV's become the norm. Unfortunately, the mistake here is NOT focusing enough on electricization and nuclear energy."

    The thing that resonated with me is the $15B investment that the Biden administration just wiped the fuck out. The adversarial nature of one administration vs. another is simply too damaging.

    This is the kind of pain that exacerbates oil's death spiral, and the current renewable policies are helping. However, I have to imagine they said the same thing during the Carter administration.

    Also, it's the kind of situation where the more the feds get involved, the worse it becomes. Everyone on earth knows the high oil prices are a weakness for the US, and the shale/fracking boom was never a complete solution to that, and it looks like that can't be revisited. Feds accuse the oil companies of price gouging, they simply shrug, point to all the dumbass things the Biden administration has done to raise uncertainty, dampen new capacity, and continue on as they have been. The Saudis, Venezuelans, etc. suddenly feeling generous enough to increase production and lower the price of oil knowing each time they do so, they squeeze the throat of their own long-term economic viability seems silly at best. The diplomatic negotiation will include some incentives, and we're running dangerously low on things that are both in demand with those regimes and acceptable to the American people. The lack of an end in sight for the war in Russia is another main concern along the same lines: morally, there's an imperative to support Ukraine. Logically, the outcome of that war has always been a foregone conclusion, and we may be approaching the tipping point where the perception of "It's only a matter of time" becomes commonplace. That will dry up aid and hasten the conclusion, but the current diplomatic strategy of isolating Russia until it becomes North Korea is not going to last.

    It's one thing if this conversion had some planning, coordination and support. Doing it on the fly, with supply chains, labor markets and inflation all in disarray, as a response to shock and turmoil simply cannot work.

    My bet is by September, many of these factors: supply chain, labor market, Russia/Ukraine, oil production, etc. will have some degree stabilized. That's a LONG 90 days away, and the GOP will have a strong interest in extending that timeline to November. The memory of this turmoil will long endure, and it will cost Biden and the Dems dearly in the midterms where there's a sane GOP candidate, and it will send the stock of palatable Republicans like Larry Hogan and Nikki Haley skyrocketing.

    The strategy of keeping Jan 6 in the news won't change many hearts/minds, because the folks who are mortified by it were never going to vote Republican, and the folks (and the representatives) who believed the lies will continue to do so, accelerating the persecution fantasy they seem to have. The Trump shadow and the Jan. 6 stuff will allow for some upset wins, but the economy, foreign policy, and lack of pro-active policies, or even a signature victory will tank 2022.

    Our energy policy as a whole simply never has had any measure of credibility, because our demand for energy will never decrease, and at best it can only shift to new sources. Until there's a plan for renewables to match demand growth, it will always be a reactionary policy measure at best. The other fun part is renewables are fragile as fuck compared to current infrastructure, and with all the fires, floods and hurricanes, each dollar spent on renewables may have a much higher figure attached to it in terms of replacement.
     
  3. Revengeofthenerds

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    US senators reach bipartisan gun control deal

    It really isn't a lot. However, the gun subs I follow on reddit, and the website I read, are all absolutely losing their shit over the "betrayal" of the GOP. They're a flaming dumpster fire, covered in shit, that's also on fire. Loving every bit of it.
     
  4. xrayvision

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    There’s literally nothing in it with any kind of teeth aside from maybe a longer wait to buy any gun you want if you’re under 21. What’s the big betrayal they are losing it over?
     
  5. Zach

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    That Republicans might actually allow anything to pass instead of just trying to block it because Dems.
     
  6. Revengeofthenerds

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    slippery slope argument. The hardline GOPers are fucking crazy about their guns man. They don't think shit will actually happen, but then when something minor even like this does, they just lose their shit. Here's an example from reddit that just popped up in my feed. My MIL just came over as we were dogsitting for her and she said that side is losing it.

    I'm so happy.
     
  7. Aetius

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    This may be nitpicky, but it's something I've hated about the media for a long time. Every story I've found so far summarizes the deal, but none of them include or link to the actual provisions of the deal. It's the news equivalent of those bloggers who write a novel on a recipe post. It's this weird need to feel like they're adding value, when all I want is for them to just forward along the details. Your paraphrasing is not of value to me, damn it.
     
  8. Revengeofthenerds

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    per NPR:

     
  9. Aetius

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    Yeah but there will still be a framework that can listed in bullet points. $X for such and such, a change to this law, etc.
     
  10. Revengeofthenerds

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    I'm reading it as "we have decided to work together to get something done in the general sense" and this is still in that stage where they're floating it out to the media and public to see what the reaction is before they go with more concrete terms.

    But yeah, I'm with you 100%. I've read various things, including funding for more mental health resources, accessing juvenile records in background checks for anyone 21 and under, more money to states to implement red flag laws, and it sounds like they're working towards banning private sales without an FFL (so you'd have to do a background check).

    Again though, a bulleted list would be very helpful. I've yet to find one. Which is why I get the impression they're not at that stage yet.
     
  11. Aetius

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    Looks like Murphy tweeted one out: https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1536013602846560256

    Why the media couldn't just copy paste that is beyond me.
     
  12. downndirty

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    This feels like a giant collective fart of a news story:
    "An unknown number of Senators, only certainly not enough to pass a law, agreed a particular concept of gun control is a good idea, but didn't write anything down, so here's a guess of a whisper of a rumor of what they might have written down, had someone in the room owned a pen, heard the mumbles correctly, and could pass the Reagan-themed riddles the troll asks you before you proceed down the hall. Our primary sources are the noises the intern heard when flushing a bunch of thumbtacks down the toilet on the tour of the Senate, a ficus that once was farted on by Strom Thurmond, and the other intern who corrected us that it was "Strom" and not the auto-corrected "Storm Thurmond."

    Internet: "conservatives lose their mind", and yet don't actually do anything except cause an ammo shortage, as if Joe Biden was riding into THEIR Wal-Mart TONIGHT on a horse made of SOCIALISM.

    Perhaps I'm missing the newsworthy achievement, and it seems the 'betrayal" that the conservatives should be all aflutter over was about 18 months ago. I say this, because that's the closest these cowards have came to getting shot at like CHILDREN IN A GODDAMNED ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, and there are literal children who handled that more heroically than this gaggle of squawking twats.

    That and maybe we stop treating the knee-jerk internet reactions of conservatives, a group of people who elected to trust Donald Trump's medical advice of ingesting bleach, over their actual doctor, as if it's a real, newsworthy thing that we should respond to. Or put another way, when your 16-year old wrecks the car for the millionth time, they don't get to drive anymore, and the fit they pitch on Tiktok is the least of the issues you are now confronting.

    This also feels like goading the die-hards into more die-hard positions, then turning to the Dems and being like: "see? Can't get anything done with you filthy socialist liberals, refusing to compromise on what MGT said: reasonable gun control must not infringe on our God-given right to arm penguins with flamethrowers and cosplay as Matrix Cobretti every time we go to 7/11.", as opposed to actual fucking leadership in saying "enough dead kids, we are doing something and here's the fucking law we're proposing."

    It's frustrating that it's somehow newsworthy a group of politicians almost did their jobs.
     
  13. Aetius

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    The PAC that took down Cawthorn has been going after Boebert, and they just claimed that she worked as an escort, had two abortions, and was convinced to run for Congress by Ted Cruz while working as an escort. Do I consider this information solid and validated? No. Am I sharing it so that I can link this tweet? Yes.
     
  14. downndirty

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    The only part that strikes me as questionable is....only two?
     
  15. Aetius

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    It is claimed that one of her clients was a member of the Koch family, so maybe all her clients were just blowing dust and pregnancy wasn't a huge risk.
     
  16. SouthernIdiot

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    Go after Marjorie Taylor Green. I think it's pretty well known she's a cheating ho.
     
  17. SouthernIdiot

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    Bannon legally threatening Barr because he called Trumps lies/delusions about the election is hilarious.
     
  18. Revengeofthenerds

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    more like Hoebert amirite?
     
  19. dixiebandit69

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    Actually, I'll bet the next thing to come out is that MTG is a trans woman.

    Look at that face and tell me "she" doesn't have a penis.

    EDIT: Fun fact: I've been permabanned without warning on two different subreddits for talking badly about MTG.

    One of which (r/toiletpaperusa) is SPECIFICALLY about making fun of GOP propaganda.
     
    #19639 dixiebandit69, Jun 14, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2022
  20. Revengeofthenerds

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    this would not surprise me in the least.

    also wtf did you say to get banned from tpusa?