It won't. You have to understand that the rot in the United States is not in the government, it's in the people. The government is merely a reflection of the people. This isn't a situation where the government does some wildly unpopular shit and 85% of the country shows up in the capital to insist the Prime Minister step down. The worse elected Republicans act, the more popular they are with their base. They win off of being terrible.
Apparently there are emails going out in some Catholic parishes about security and beefing up ushers. My sister asked if dad was beefed up. What is this fucking timeline? All these big country and global events and crises are starting to feel surreal.
Both of those are going to get far worse by the Fall, particularly around October/November. People aren’t grasping how terrible things are going to be for the next couple years. What’s happening in Sri Lanka will be commonplace, particularly in MENA region.
I just hope they get the formula shortage worked out in the next 3-6 months, because with the huge increase in babies being born, there are going to be a lot of hungry mouths to feed.
They don’t care about feeding them, they just care that they’re born so they can virtue signal for more votes.
-Without the war, the Ukrainian wheat harvest was projected to be 20% short. With the war, it will be closer to 30-40% short, at best. Even then, the ports will likely be blockaded. They had no effective storage systems before the war and the grain will start to spoil quickly. The harvest just started and there will be a full picture of how bad it is around October. Brazil was originally poised to try to pick up the slack, but the optimism on that is starting to cool because of the next point. -There are 3 major types of fetilizer: nitrogen, phosphate and potash. All three are experiencing global shortages due to either low production (Russia), lower of natural gas availability or protectionism (China). -The MENA region will be the first to be heavily impacted. The last time global food prices doubled in the early 2010s, the Arab Spring occurred. They have already doubled as of March 2022 and will likely double again by Q4. Combine food shortages with weak governments and regimes start collapsing. There’s a lot of other reasons and I can dig up sources, but those are the three main points. There’s also major fuel issues if oil starts backing up in the pipelines all the way to the wellheads. Russia is about to find out about that.
I don't think it will be that big. People are already forming networks to help women who need abortions out. https://www.theonion.com/supreme-court-votes-5-4-to-throw-beer-bottle-at-slut-1849106887
Things are going to get worse as women who care enough about the issue will move to states that support those rights, and they'll just get blue-r. https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/google-employees-abortion-rights-relocate-1235303248/ Google's move to protect employees does a few things: 1) protects those who have the money and resources to go to places that provide abortion services, 2) continues to concentrate the bluey votes in to fewer and few jurisdictions, 3) lowers the chance of the more progressive voices winning hearts and minds from the red side . If I'm not mistaken, Facebook and Apple are offering the same things. Democrats will continue to lose because they're losers and have lost, again, a key reason as to why people donated and "vote(d) blue no matter who". I think @dixiebandit69 noted that the "base" of the democratic party as being a bunch of arguably unmotivated people is largely true. The dems lack long term planning, comfort with wielding power, and _wildly_ underestimate just how conservative the non-white votes can be.
The core reason why Democrats lose is because they’re more of a coalition party than Republicans. It’s a loose confederation of different groups with very different priorities and core issues between them. Every now and then you get someone that motivates the entire party collectively (e.g. Obama one way, Trump the other way), but there’s not a ton of cross-pollination between what they actually care about. They may support each other in spirit but that doesn’t translate to votes, even less so with a milquetoast candidate at the top.
https://twitter.com/johncornyn/status/1540689961040482306?s=21&t=DUQ8YX-hObQSrtuCx6H72A Just in case you were wondering why people seem to think the gop is a racist party.
Welp I had a reply I was typing but Clutch put it a lot more succinctly. Saying "now do..." is chiding Obama to explain why Plessy should have stood.
So... if they just overturned RvW, why would they NOT go after more? Do you honestly think that they're done here?
So there has been some talk on Reddit that the reversal of Roe means that they can now enforce vaccine mandates. Anyone have any thoughts?
Do you honestly think Brown vs Board of education is what he wants SCOTUS to strike down? (you can also quote me for posterity that this will never happen).
I was trying to figure out if he was saying it like when someone is being called out for hypocrisy. “YOU CANT MAKE ME WEAR A MASK, MY BODY MY CHOICE!” And then someone responds with “okay, now do abortion”. I think it was a poorly worded tweet for a sitting senator, especially considering Clarence Thomas took some open shots at overturning other rulings that are considered settled. I also don’t think the republicans are done going after other rulings.
Thomas has been an opponent of "substantive due process" rulings forever and has brought it up just about every chance he's got. Typically he will lay out which portion of the Constitution he thinks any given case falls under, typically the Privileges and Immunities clause.
The fertilizer slack can be picked up, but there will be a lag, from what I understand. It's not difficult to make, just difficult to establish those market connections. I'm curious what you mean by "oil starts back up in the pipelines." Demand is still there, no? Lastly, I think we're seeing global inflation, and the MENA area is going to be the least stable for quite a while. I'm curious how COVID impacted that part of the world, because I'd wager all of the sudden the ideologues who commanded a ton of space now might be a bit more shrill and hollow. I'm curious which regimes are seen as weak, and in danger of collapse? I get the food prices are destabilizing, and I concur. I just don't know if I agree with the leap of "food prices=regime change", Arab Spring notwithstanding.
The fertilizer slack can be picked up but it will take a few cycles for it to be up to production to meet current global demand, and there’s a distribution system to contend with. That is a very lagging replacement. Oil pipelines in Russia run through the permafrost. When it’s flowing, it’s fine. When it stops because they can’t it out of the ports (17-20% drop this year), the pipelines freeze and crack. So it’s either dump it in Siberia and hope no one notices, or back it up to the wellhead. Doing that requires a shutdown of the whole pipeline system. The last time that happened the Soviet Union collapsed, and it took 30 years for it return to full functionality. That didn’t happen until December 2021, and that was with western petrochemical engineers (Halliburton, ExxonMobile, etc.) practically designing the system for them. If they shut it off again, it will crater their own industry. I think Lebanon is the one to go first. They started having food supply issues back in October.