Adult Content Warning

This community may contain adult content that is not suitable for minors. By closing this dialog box or continuing to navigate this site, you certify that you are 18 years of age and consent to view adult content.

Finance Thread

Discussion in 'Permanent Threads' started by ryrob, Oct 21, 2009.

  1. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    Got stopped out of just about every holding I had today, including this one.
    Came out a little ahead because of the run this morning, but there is some serious negative market sentiment out there and next week is not looking positive. Cash rich on my account, but I hate sitting on the sidelines.
     
  2. CharlesJohnson

    CharlesJohnson
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    401
    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2009
    Messages:
    3,974
    Cyclacel Pharmaceutical (CYCC) at $3.87, target of $10. They're in Phase 3 trial of cancer treatments. If anyone can find any write ups, this looks interesting.

    Dendreon Corp (DNDN) released a prostate drug in Europe. <a class="postlink" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-dendreon-shares-jump-on-news-of-prost-idUSBREA2215Q20140303" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... 5Q20140303</a> . Currently at $3.31 with a target between $2 and $8. The problem with this one: "The treatment has failed to live up to expectations due to the company's limited manufacturing capability, quality issues, uncertainty over insurance coverage and competition from rival drugs."

    Mentioned Orexigen Therapeutics before when it was $7.49, currently sits at $7.03 with a target of $7-12. I'm still following it. June 10th FDA decision. "Orexigen (OREX) announced Tuesday that the company has received what it calls positive feedback from Europe's EMA regarding the anti-obesity pill Contrave. The obesity pill is under application in both the United States as well as Europe. One interesting component about Contrave is that it is currently perceived as having a lead in Europe. Vivus's Qsymia suffered a rejection across the pond, and competitor Arena pulled its application in lieu of getting a rejection because the company stated it would not have enough time to answer questions raised by the EMA."

    Zacks has it on buy. Company releases quarterly results on the 12th.

    Enteromedics Inc (ETRM) is another obesity remedy developer. In clinical trials. $2.51 now, target to double. $3 target on the low end of range. Been active the past couple days.
     
  3. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    CJ, please, whatever you do, do not put any of your money into owning shares of DNDN.

    I came up with just a list of stocks for possible investing to hold for a big return. I could go into some serious DD on each of them, but most of these have been covered pretty extensively if you do some google searching.

    $ATRS
    $IGXT
    $INO
    $ISR
    $SYN
    $MSTX
    $SNWV
    $SGYP
    $DSCO
    $FOLD


    Happy investing.
     
  4. CharlesJohnson

    CharlesJohnson
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    401
    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2009
    Messages:
    3,974
    <a class="postlink" href="http://247wallst.com/healthcare-business/2014/03/01/top-biotech-stocks-under-5-with-huge-potential-upside/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://247wallst.com/healthcare-busines ... al-upside/</a>

    Avanir pops up again. Threshold looks interesting. Let me mention everything I throw out is just an idea to bounce off someone else. Each company I mention I watch and try to research as much as possible.

    Yeah. Scratch Dendreon off the list. Couple days after I posted, finally found some more objective articles. Company is a cash drain. If it hits a buck or less I'd consider it.
     
  5. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    I was actually debating putting Threshold on my list, but left it off as I'm not 100% sold on it yet. It's a good company, I'm just not sure everything adds up in the end. I will say, they have some big money investors behind them and a few that are heavy hitters in the biotech space. Never a bad thing.
     
  6. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    A few more to add to the list.

    $NEPT
    $CBMX
    $ABIO
     
  7. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    Been hearing a lot of "chatter" about a big down market this week. If you were thinking of buying into some stocks, this week may be a good opportunity to buy some sell offs.

    Overall, there has been some key indicators the bull market is slowly coming to an end and there is going to be a big downward press in the next few months. Not a big crash, but the rest of the correction we started to see in February.
     
  8. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    Well this definitely didn't start out as I had thought.
    I'm a little baffled right now, but it wouldn't be the first time in the past year or two the market has pushed forward when every indicator is screaming that it shouldn't.
     
  9. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    If you bought some $ISR when I posted you would have quadrupled your money today.
    Not saying the whole list I put up over the past few weeks will do the same, but they are all stocks I'd start to accumulate if you are looking for the possibility of big returns in the future.
     
  10. CharlesJohnson

    CharlesJohnson
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    401
    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2009
    Messages:
    3,974
    Just popped 74% today due to an almost unanimous recommendation from the FDA advisory committee before final approval (pending). And no, I did not get in on it before. I'm fairly irritated. This is weird, because day before yesterday the stock TANKED because of a serious issue concerning dosage changes Mannkind made last minute. Everything I read said it would probably present problems with approval. The price reflected such. So, I'm guessing the price is going to continue to fluctuate wildly until FDA weighs in within the next month. Still f'n pissed. Gambling sucks.
     
  11. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    Don't be too upset.
    You would have had to make the perfect trades and believed FULLY it was going to get a good panel vote (not approved by the FDA by the way, just recommended to be approved).
    If you had bought any day other then yesterday, your return wouldn't have looked so spectacular. If you were a good trader, you would have been stopped out of most of your shares after it closed at $3.80 before it was locked up for the panel vote.
    This is also assuming you bought at the lowest and sold it all today. There is a very real chance this thing rides back lower for the next few days. You very well may have been looking back to today thinking to yourself, "Why didn't I just sell it all then."
     
  12. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    Just a few quick updates:

    I'm 99% cash right now as I've been either stopped out or sold off all my positions. First time in a long time I've been red for the year.

    Don't get lulled with today's bounce. Lot more downside incoming. Probably see another 3-4% correction before its all said and done.

    Adding ACRX to my list of "cheap" stocks with big upside.

    Right now is a really good time to watch the markets closely and look to do some day trading. Lots of stocks in small caps that are cheap and might get cheaper. Good time to make some starter positions for long term growth as well as interday trading in and out of the dips.
     
  13. silway

    silway
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    76
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2009
    Messages:
    1,052
    Some interesting notes from a class that included a discussion on risk tolerance and what makes people make bad decisions. Since this place seems to aim to know and eliminate bias from rational thinking (in theory at least), thought it might be useful or interesting to some. Maybe even help someone out when they're making a decision.

    Warning; these are class notes from lecture, really just a list of things that affect rational decisions.

    Limitations in Rational Thinking
    Overconfidence in intuitive judgments
    Self-handicapping risks understate risks
    Nonrepresentative quality of short-run trends
    Law of large numbers depend on sample size
    Failure to correctly evaluate exposure time
    Short vs. Long duration risk
    Low risk vs. high risk
    Denial of risk
    Discounting small negative probabilities
    Complete elimination of risk vs. reduction in risk
    People place a disproportionately high value on eliminating risk
    Availability bias
    What makes the news gives us the blues
    Unreported and underreported acts are off the radar
    Familiarity bias
    Seasoned investors are more risk tolerant
    Illusion of control bias
    Tendency for people to underestimate the risk inherent in the activites under their control - ex. car driving
    Time horizon
    Risk level is time dependent
    Mood
    Bad mood = pessimistic
    Good mood = optimistic
    Alcohol
    Increases risk tolerance
    Parties bearing consequences
    Decision makers more risk tolerant if they alone suffer consequences of their actions
    Decision makers also more risk tolerant if only others bear the consequences
    Group dynamics of risk taking
    Choice Shift = a group decision is riskier than the average decision of individuals in the group
    Choice shift explained by:
    Shared decision making
    Influential risk-tolerant group members
    Familiarity bias by-product of group discussion
    hear something enough, assign element of truth to it
    Mental accounts:
    Assessment of loss/gain not just about dollar amounts
    Different risk tolerance levels for different buckets of money
    Losses weigh more heavily emotionally than gains
    Ex. Inherited Funds more risk tolerant than Vegas winnings than Salary from hard work

    Edit: It did not preserve formatting so I bolded some lines as headers
     
  14. ODEN

    ODEN
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    152
    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2009
    Messages:
    1,357
    Looks like a good time to think about taking your investment accounts off autopilot because there be a storm brewin'.

    Everyone remembers what this looks like. The euphoric high can only go so high, 2007 gave all the warning signs that there was trouble ahead. Many were taken to the cleaners but if you prepare for it there will be ways to make money in a down market. Anybody out there taking any precautionary measures?
     
  15. silway

    silway
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    76
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2009
    Messages:
    1,052
    It is, sadly, somewhat hard to get people to go into fixed products and preserve their 2013 gains when, according to their account statements, everything's great!

    I'll be getting some more fixed cash value life insurance, personally, and double checking if I have bond funds to divest before rising interest rates kill them. But most of my market investment is retirement accounts in long term funds that will bounce back.

    I should also mention that I'm not sold on a dramatic crisis ahead as much as it's likely that we'll have a fair amount of turbulence and various corrections.
     
  16. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    Been pretty busy so I haven't had much of a chance to do as much long term research as I usually do. Mostly been banging the bid and day trading.

    However, one stock I've fallen for, dick over heels, $INVE.
    This is my pick of the year. Usually I get one good stock a year that just blows up my bank account and this one wins the cake this year.
    I won't bore you with the details, but a quick overview, they are industry leaders in NFC as well as a lot of cool other internet security stuff. NFC? Sound familiar? That thing that is incorporated in the new iPhone that is going to be the platform for Apple Pay....Yeah, the back end is $INVE tech.
    Should be some good analyst coverage coming up next week after they just did an institutional offering.
    Low floater and it moves when it wants.
    Get in cheap, cash out rich.
    I don't guarantee profits, but this is about as close to "Blue Horseshoe Loves Anacott Steel" as you can get.
    Happy trading.
     
  17. Tuesday

    Tuesday
    Expand Collapse
    Disturbed

    Reputation:
    3
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    361
    I've got a couple nickels in my pocket (prob spend those on beer though), college debt out the ass, but want to retire next week. What should I rob?

    I started contributing to my 401k earnestly 1-2 years ago (I'm now 26), later than I wanted. Between graduation and that point I was paying down my student loans (maybe 20k left), not as much as I could, but about double the monthly payment. Now I have bought a house, am taking 10% paycheck +employer match to 401k, currently pay minimums on student loans, am close to paying off my vehicle (1-1.5k). I feel like I'm behind where I should be financially. Is there something else I should be doing or looking into? Should someone in my position be starting/contributing to an IRA as well? When I was younger I knew how bad debt could hurt you and always planned on starting to save as much as possible when I got a real job, but go figure, girls booze and overall disregard for responsibility quickly shuttered those notions. I know I don't have the discipline to continually follow the stock market, but I'm not opposed to occasionally throwing some money at something that piques my interest.
     
  18. Juice

    Juice
    Expand Collapse
    Moderately Gender Fluid

    Reputation:
    1,450
    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2009
    Messages:
    13,951
    Location:
    Boston
    Forget starting another investment path until you payoff the debt.
     
  19. Popped Cherries

    Popped Cherries
    Expand Collapse
    Emotionally Jaded

    Reputation:
    153
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    1,742
    Location:
    NY
    I would also suggest looking closely at the options you have on your 401k.
    The one I have through my job allows me to be pretty flexible with what I can invest in.

    One thing I will say, just laying your 401k money into some shit fund that you have zero control over is not the way to go. If you can split the amount you put into a 401k and IRA through your work, that might be a more profitable way to go.
     
  20. Tuesday

    Tuesday
    Expand Collapse
    Disturbed

    Reputation:
    3
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Messages:
    361
    Juice - My higher interest debt I agree (gov't student loans, fucking racket). Part of my student loans are at 2% though - I'd rather invest than pay that off. I don't carry CC debt. Early next year, or maybe with my Christmas bonus I'll pay off my Jeep. Not a big monthly payment, but that's cash in the bank for either paying off debt, saving, or entertainment.

    PC - I'm not sure what my options are through work's 401k. They offer a handful of investment portfolios, but what's the best way to figure out if they're shit or not? When I first selected, I chose higher risk ones with middle of the road fees.