I recently read Walter Isaacson's 'The Innovators' - which is about the development of the computer. There's one interesting phenomena that he refers to, and is fairly well know. Since I'm not sure it has a proper name, I'll call it 'Simultaneous Invention.' Many big breakthroughs, not only in computers but in many areas, are developed in two different places by two unconnected people. Isaacson's explanation is that once the groundwork has been laid by others, a certain area or discipline is primed for a big leap forward, but usually not before the groundwork is laid - usually in incremental steps over many years by people grinding it out. Anyway, I wonder when it comes to something like religion, and I fully intend no disrespect, how much of Christianity really depended on Jesus the actual person versus the mythology that grew up around him. Constantine changed the official religion 300 years after Jesus passed. This leads me to wonder whether Jesus was per se necessary, or would some other historical person serve the same purpose? I don't know, as while I'm familiar with the Simultaneous Invention concept, I haven't really looked much to see if it occurs in cultural/political/social situations.
I've long been interested in alternate history. I used to contribute a good deal (though not nearly as much as a few others) to soc.history.what-if, and am active on the alternatehistory.com forum. For a great AH trilogy that'll make you want to slash your wrists, it doesn't get better than S.M. Stirling's Draka series. Imagine Apartheid-era South Africa, only a quadrillion times worse. In the first book, they'll have you rooting for Nazi Germany. I didn't know about the Man in the High Castle adaptation, I'll have to investigate this... http://wiki.alternatehistory.com/doku.p ... rps#ming-3
One of the baselines I like to set on an Alt History debate is to see if everyone agrees that “We are currently living in the greatest time in human history.” This is helpful not only to make sure everyone is sane but to potentially balance every argument that your Alt History might fuck up everything. Like if Hitler never existed that is good but, there is no UN because the atomic bomb wasn’t dropped on Japan in 1945 and there was a huge stockpile of atomic weapons and nuclear holocaust. By the way nuclear holocaust is my go to argument for any 20th century Alt History.
Germany rolling over their weaker neighbors was probably as inevitable as the USSR gobbling up their satellites. France and Britain tried appeasement until the 1939 invasion of Poland which started WWII. So WWII was probably inevitable because Germany would have crossed France and Britain’s neutrality-line-in-the-sand. Everybody asks what if Hitler never existed or what if WWII wasn’t as bad as it was. Well what if WWII was worse? If the Battle of Britain broke a little differently maybe Britain is knocked out of the war. The Eastern Front could have lasted a couple more years, Germany has an air force of jets, Russia has an even bigger army, and the USA drops the atomic bomb on Germany and then shit gets fucked. and I would like to second that Man in the High Castle is an awesome book
I like to think about the pre-contact American civilizations continuing to develop without European conquest. What would the Americas have looked like today if the Aztec, Inca, Maya, Tayrona, Muisca and Amazonian societies had never been decimated by disease, civil war and Spanish/Portuguese conquistadors. The Inca were around for just a few generations and accomplished so much in terms of architecture and agricultural development. How would they have continued to develop? We have very little idea of what pre-contact Amazonian societies were like, but we know much of the region was heavily populated. The destruction of Native American societies (for the most part) decimated an entire world view in terms of culture, land-use patterns, medicinal practices, and world view, akin to if Asian knowledge and cultures had been wiped out before they could have been shared and recorded by the world at large. Also, what if diseases had worked out differently and Europeans had little immunological resistance to American disease and the conquests happened in the opposite direction?
I agree, I think someone else would have stepped out front and become the 'voice of the disaffected' in Germany. Conditions were so bad, and people were just primed for anyone with a hate filled agenda to step forward. After a lot of research about WWI, WWII really strikes me as inevitable due to the peace terms of WWI, and while Hitler was definitely a catalyst, I suspect the only requirement was that someone like him return to power in Germany before shit was going to blow up.
I think if the Ming Dynasty didn't burn their massive fleet in 1433 and had been willing to pursue warfare more aggressively they would have jump started the Age of Discovery and possibly have beaten Europe to the imperial/colonizing game. Similar to what's been said about Christianity (Edict of Milan, Jesus, etc.), I think that if Confucius had never been born a significant portion of Asian history would have been completely different. I know its not technically a religion but it sure as hell influences people's behavior. If the crusades had never happened we likely wouldn't have had the Renaissance and history would have been significantly different. The Middle East and the East in general would have continued to flourish as the center of science, technology, and trade and Europe would have slogged on through the Middle Ages for who knows how long. The Industrial Revolution may very well have happened first in the East, and boy would shit look different. Then again, in this scenario, the Industrial Revolution in Europe may have just been delayed since people argue that the Industrial Revolution couldn't ever have happened anywhere else due to geography and culture/religion. Also, as a U.S.'er, I think it would be so cool and interesting if we hadn't done the whole Manifest Destiny thing and annihilate an entire people. The whole nation would be completely different, hell, we may not even be here. Still, I like to imagine some Dances with Wolves shit and have some crazy cool hybrid culture develop. Now to just have been able to have been there to see it...