Well this is unexpected...AP just reported Marathon bombers are suspected to be Chechnyans who had one year of residence here. Edit: .....and here we go with the Al-Qaeda connection speculation.
I wouldn't worry, Russia hates Chechnya. They would be overjoyed to send in some tanks and blow them to kingdom come.
I'm far from an expert, but if Putin still has the influence I think he does, they'd prefer to let Chechnya send half their population over as terrorists first. Besides, we're already playing the Cold War game in Syria. They're going on now about Chechnya having heavy Al-Qaeda connections, supplying Al-Qaeda with "whiter-looking" terrorists.
I doubt it, there's no way Putin would want American troops anywhere near Russia, much less a provincial invasion. Russia's economy is very delicate; they do a lot of posturing but they couldn't afford any kind of war or destabilization. They wouldn't have a choice but but to deal with it themselves. And after two long internal wars, they'll be no love lost for dead Chechens by the larger Russan population.
This whole thing is really strange. From the bombing to the fact that they didn't try to conceal who they were and never left the area. I can't wait to find out what the motive in all this was. What could they have possibly gained?
If these people ARE actually Chechens (possible at this stage, just rather unusual) then yes, they may be linked to Al Qaaeda, since they have some pretty strong connections to AQ and are overwhelmingly Muslim, but I'm still doubtful. That would imply that AQ is behind this attack and deliberately orchestrated a bomb plot in the US, but then let days pass without claiming responsibility or doing any of their usual posturing? Odd. Also, the Russian fucking hate the Chechens, especially since their women have started doing the whole "Black Widow" thing. Don't forget the Moscow Bombings.
If they're Chechen committing acts of terrorism in the US then they're obviously radical Muslims. The only question is if they're acting on their own (inspired by AQ and similar groups, but not aided by them) or an actual AQ/other terrorist group cell. It is possible that AQ is behind the attack and didn't claim credit because they don't want to be seen as incompetent. Let's face it--the attack, while tragic, was a failure. They were going for WAY more than three fatalities. Could be that the AQ higher-ups are going to let these jackasses hang to dry instead of claiming credit for what turned out to be a more or less failed attack. Or maybe not, I hear a lot of those right-wing extremist gun nut teabaggers are Chechens[/sarcasm]
Agreed, it's just that this scenario doesn't necessarily fit AQ's MO (look at me with all my pro acronyms, THIS IS WHY I HAVE A DEGREE IN THIS SHIT) because A) the bombs were pretty shitty; compare to the Istanbul attacks, the Bali Bombings, the Madrid Bombings, the 7/7 Bombings and the recent foiled plots in terms of scale of damage, victims, etc. This is pretty weak sauce. You'd think they could've trained them to do somewhat better than a pressure-cooker-and-black-powder IED. AQ usually goes for bigger, bolder, more horrific, theatrical stuff. Like any good terrorist network they thrive on it. The MO on this one immediately screamed "lone nutbag" at me. Even if you might argue that they're losing their power - and they are - and thus might not be able to orchestrate attacks on a scale like before, their core technical expertise remains intact. B) There's been no proclamation. Usually AQ will claim responsibility fairly rapidly. UNLESS the bombers acted independently but considered themselves to be in some way affiliated to AQ (the "franchise" model), like in the case of the 7/7 attacks, when they waited over a month for the dust to settle before claiming they were responsible because they didn't want to get burned by saying "AHA! We were in on it all along!" and it then turning out that the bombers did it because they were Scottish Independence Freedom Fighters or some such. So the proclamation might still come. C) Why America? As mentioned previously, the Chechens fucking HATE the Russians, who have the advantage of A) having a more easily permeable border and security infrastructure and B) being RIGHT FUCKING THERE. Why go to all the trouble of obtaining Visas, coming to the US, adapting to a hostile environment where you don't speak the language, etc? It just seems odd. Disclaimer: I, like my enlightened "colleagues" on TV, am purely speculating and reacting to rumour at this point.
Agree with A and B, and I agree with you that it's likely they were acting on their own (or at least with no "higher" support from an organized terror group), just wouldn't say yet that it's a 100% certainty, especially since the guy who was killed had a suicide vest on (didn't detonate it). Could very well be that they were supposed to use the suicide vests at the marathon but decided that while they were cool with the whole jihad thing they didn't want to actually blow themselves up, so made a shitty pressure cooker bomb on their own instead--that would explain both the crudeness of the bomb at the marathon and (along with only 3 deaths) why AQ didn't claim credit. As for C, true but the US is a more visible target (and if you're committed to the idea of global jihad and establishing a global caliphate it really doesn't matter whether you go after the US or Russia). It's also very possible that they weren't radicalized until after moving to the US.
My thought is that they didn't claim credit for security reasons, perhaps the operation wasn't over with yet. That could also explain why they didn't leave the area. Don't they generally try to martyr themselves in the attacks? Otherwise, the reason they may not have claimed credit was the fact that there has been a big change in how we conduct anti-terrorism since 9/11. I'm sure these dudes hear drones in their sleep now and don't really want a hellfire missile dropped on their heads.
Heres the younger one's V Kontake account (its a facebook ripoff): <a class="postlink" href="http://vk.com/id160300242" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://vk.com/id160300242</a>
From the looks of the news now, they have the younger one cornered in a house in Watertown. I hope they bring him out alive. I don't want him to have the satisfaction of killing himself, and I don't want any loose ends after this, so there are no nutjob conspiracy theories.
People are going to see the photo of him with the Asian dude and it's on. I KNEW IT!!!!! THEM NORTH CHINESE-KOREAN COMMIES IS WORKIN WITH AL-KYDA!!!!!
<a class="postlink" href="http://audio2.radioreference.com/446184308" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://audio2.radioreference.com/446184308</a> Police scanner. Interesting listening.
Yeah, it would be pretty nice if there are no nutjob conspiracy theories when this is all said and done. It would also be nice if I had a threesome with Kate Upton and Isla Fisher tonight.