I'm bitter because I think the Celtics were jobbed in game 2 and thus this series should have been over in 5 with the Celtics advancing. Grumble grumble basketball grumble...
OKC will probably win in 6 (possibly 7, very remote chance of 5) games. Their best three are every bit as good as Miami's best three, but their depth is just so much better. And they have home court.
Agreed, I was going to say Thunder in 6 as well. Although the way Lebron is playing, he certainly deserves to win it(and yes I REALLY hate saying that).
The way Kevin Durant is playing, he "deserves" to win it, too. Really, the idea of an individual player "deserving" a championship is idiotic. Basketball is a team sport. LeBron can have another amazing series, but if Durant counters by playing just as brilliantly, then OKC will win, since they are the better, deeper squad.
Oh certainly, I didn't mean to imply that Durant and Co. didn't deserve to. I'm just still in awe of those last two Eastern Conference games.
What Durant deserves is scoring titles. He is a 1-trick pony. And the Thunder big 3 is as good as the Heat big 3...on offense. OKC's defense, like most other teams in the Western Conference, is weak. They have good individual defenders, but their overall scheme is weak. Points in the paint will be critical. Neither team has any low post presence on offense, so it will come down to posting up guys like Wade and James. Haslem and Perkins cancel each other out. And Bosh will drag Ibaka as far from the basket as he can get. The matchups will also be key. The matchups off the bench will have a lot to do with the series I think it will be great series and will go at least 6 or 7 games.
You're way too smart to actually believe this. Durant is a good rebounder (8.0 rpg), a quality passer (3.5 apg), and a really good defender. (1.3 spg and 1.2 bpg) Durant is as much of a "1-trick pony" as Michael Jordan was. Beyond this, being one of the most prolific scorers in NBA history who can score in a million different ways usually isn't considered just a single, ignorable skill. You sound like someone who has only watched the Western Conference Finals. OKC's defense isn't great, but it's certainly not weak, either. Firstly, OKC plays at a very high pace, which often means higher scoring games in general. Nevertheless, they held both Dallas and the Lakers to significantly below their regular season scoring averages. Obviously though, San Antonio is going to score a lot against anyone. And I couldn't disagree more about the Western Conference in general. Realistically, the Heat's defense isn't that much better than OKC's. They made an average Boston offense seem incredibly potent at times, and the Celtics recorded well above their season scoring average. The Heat did a great job against the Pacers (a high-scoring team), but the Knicks were a pretty lousy team with a poorly-run offense.
I would not call Kevin Durant a "really good" defender. He's gone from below-average to maybe slightly above average, but let's not get crazy here. That being said, he's not at all a one trick pony. Steve Novak is a one-trick pony. DeAndre Jordan is a one-trick pony. At this point Mike Miller is basically a zero-trick pony, but there's no way that Durant has just one trick. He's the best scorer of this generation, and inherent in that is a bunch of different things -- he can consistently hit from just about every angle on the court, has crazy range, handles the ball better than any person his size should be able to -- he's just a really, really special offensive player.
I don't see how the Heat match-up with Harden, Westbrook and Durant all on the floor at the same time. I don't see Wade's offense being that great when he's been operating anywhere from 60%-95% this series with Westrbook and Harden running him ragged the series. Harden is the definitive X factor as at their best Durant/James & Westbrook/Wade neutralize each other give or take 3-5 points. Is Battier really going to lock down Harden giving Ibaka and Perkins free reign? I don't know. Its going to be a good basketball match-up. I can't believe how badly the Celtics shit the bed. I thought they were going to lose, but that was a shitting of the bed. Rondo needs to take some of those shots. Maybe not the 3s, but those lobs to Garnett were terrible.
Durant's length on defense makes up for his lack of strength and footwork. And quoting stats does not prove anything. Stats are deceptive. He should be a good rebounder...he's a 6'10" guard! Maybe 1-trick pony was a little strong, but he is not the well-rounded player LBJ is. OKC makes a lot of mistakes - on offense and defense. To beat them, you have to limit yours and exploit theirs. I think Wade covers Westrbrook, Battier covers Durant and LBJ freelances off Sefolosha. When Harden comes in, they might switch that up a little. You also have to look at it from the other side. Who is Harden going to cover? Battier? The real matchup problem for the Heat is Chalmers. I dont see how me matches up with any of their starters.
I really don't understand the arguments you're making about Durant and I have a hunch you don't either. "He's only a good rebounder because he's tall for a wing." OK, but that's beside the point. The point is that Durant provides a very high value-added at the 3 in terms of rebounding; in fact, a quick search suggests that there are fewer than ten wing players with a decent amount of minutes have a higher rebounding rate (one of the is LBJ). Positionally, he is an elite rebounder. When in comes to assists, you see the same thing. Once you rule out players who are points guard or near-point-guards (i.e. Stephen Curry), you won't find many players above Durant (again, James is one). Defensively, if he has so many holes, why is he several points better than league average in points allowed per 100 possessions? It's not his teammates bailing him out, since he actually scores better than OKC as a whole. He's not a great defender, but he's above average. "Not as good as LBJ" isn't much of a statement, because all you've said is "He's only the SECOND best player in the NBA!" I agree with you about matchups and turnovers. Not only did OKC lead the NBA in turnovers, but they were also dead-last in Assist-to-turnover ratio (it's an imperfect measure, though, since transition teams don't always get a ton of assists). This indicates that it isn't entirely pace based. That being said, in the playoffs that have averaged the second fewest TOs and at a higher A/T ratio, better than Miami on both measures.
He gets rebounds because his man is usually 3-5" shorter in height and arm length. And Durant is not the 3, he's their 2. Sefolosha is their 3. Their starting lineup is huge. But all those lines are blurred now in the NBA. Ibaka erases a lot of their backcourt's defensive mistakes. A LOT. Westbrook & Durant gamble a lot on defense because of the shot blocking behind them. If the Heat can draw Ibaka out and take care of the ball, they have a chance to exploit the OKC defensive weaknesses. Personally, I don't think Durant is the 2nd best player in the NBA. I think Kobe is. Durant isn't well developed enough, but based on his age and how hard he works, he definitely can be. Durant is the best scorer in the league, I will give him that.
Yeah, not so much. His body type and game is completely different. Durant is shorter, smaller, and a worse rebounder than Nowitizki, albeit a much better defender. Durant is a worse shooter, but a better scorer overall, recording baskets in a litany of other ways that Nowitzki can't. (Not that being a more athletic version, young version of one of the 20-25 greatest players ever is a bad thing, either...) Edit- I guess I can accept arguments that there is someone other than LBJ who is as good as Durant right now, but Kobe of all people?! If Durant is "not well-rounded" (you've backed off the "one-trick pony" nonsense), then what does that make Kobe at this stage in his career? Bryant is a high volume gunner whose percentages were among the lowest of his career this season, all while his contributions in other areas slightly wittle down. This season, Kobe reminded me of Tracy McGrady in his prime. That's not bad at all, but I don't even think he is a true top 5 player anymore, let alone 2nd behind LeBron.
And your version disagrees with both the Thunder's depth chart and 82games account of where Sefalosha and Durant have spent their minutes. But even if we call him a 2, the point is even stronger at the 2 than at the 3, and I actually was looking at "wing" players more broadly (i.e. counting both Ersan Iylasova and Dwayne Wade) in terms of stats. At the two or the three, though, who cares WHY he gets a lot of rebounds? The more important fact is that he does, and does so at a much higher rate than the replacement player. Saying Durant only gets rebounds because he's tall is like saying LeBron only gets them because he's tall and/or strong. Even if true, who cares? I don't think the Heat can do that as easily as you think, by the way. Even if they have Ibaka a little further out, Perkins will still be there. And even more interestingly, the Thunder have been running a ton of small lineups recently with Perkins on the bench and Ibaka at the 5 (the rest being combinations of Westbrook-Harden-Sefalosha-Durant-Collison). There's no reason to think they couldn't try the same against the Heat, given that the Heat centers are mere placeholders. Re: Nowitzki, the thing that no one realizes is that Dirk doesn't shoot that many threes anymore. 57 players took more than him this year, and 186 players took more on a per-minute basis. In fact, seven players on Dallas alone took more three pointers per minute than he did.
You were equating stats to defensive effectiveness and my point was that he gets rebounds because of the height advantage he has over the guy he's covering. If I rebound vs a 5'9" guy, it doesnt make me a great rebounder or a great defender, just 6" taller. Perkins doesn't scare anybody on offense or defense. He and Haslem are identical. Solid, but not spectacular. And certainly not a presence in the lane on offense or defense. The significance of drawing Ibaka out of the lane is the drive/draw/dish opportunities it provides with Bosh spotting up on the outside. Ibaka will still be there to block shots, but the defensive rotation is thrown off by a 6'10 guy that can shoot from the outside like Bosh can. I think Westbrook and Harden are the keys for OKC and Chalmers and Battier/Miller/Jones are for the Heat. I give OKC the advantage because of the home court. I think it's 6 or 7 games and the first team to win on the road has a huge advantage. Do you think the 2-3-2 format is better than the 2-2-1-1-1 format? I think 3 in a row at home makes it very hard to hold that HC advantage.
This is a stupid argument. Durant is not only rebounding over the guy who is covering him, but the other 4 members of the opposing team as well, including their center. Also, one could note that because Durant is a perimeter player, he stays much further away from the basket, and is thus in a worse position to grab a lot of rebounds. 8.0 rpg means the guy is a good rebounder, end of story. Identical?! Haslem is an undersized PF who is probably 6' 8" standing on his tip-toes, and weights 240 pounds. Perkins is a legitimate 6' 10 bruiser who is 275 pounds. Partly due to these reasons, Perkins is a shot-blocker (1.1 bpg) and Haslem is not (0.4 bpg).
Again, who cares? I don't know why you're insisting that Durant is a guard when just about everywhere says otherwise (6 inches taller? What teams have you seen trying to defend Durant with someone who is 6'3"?), but the larger issue is who cares why he's able to stop people? As long as he does it, the why is irrelevant. Are you willing to say that James isn't that great of a rebounder because he is taller than the people guarding him and can outleap them? If you do ____ well, you're good at _____. At Durant rebounds well and defends above-average. Certainly not offensively. But he's a big body in the paint who blocks shots at a decent rate (although unspectacular). He's still an above average center defensively, and only two years removed from being singled out by Dwight Howard as his toughest defender. This is right under the assumption that you've gotten the defensive assignments correct. This looks very different, however, if they start shifting Ibaka to the five as they often have this postseason. It depends on what you want. If you want to advantage the home team, then 2-2-1-1-1 is better. If you want a competitive series, 2-3-2 is probably better. It still gives the average advantage to the home team, but less so. Personally, I prefer the latter.
I am not trying to compare James to anybody. Its not fair to everybody else. My point was stats can be misleading. That was all. Perkins is a great defender. The problem is, the Heat have nobody for him to defend. Bosh or Haslem will play the 5. Maybe Anthony.
Rebounding is as much about individual battles and positioning as defense is. And again, stats do not determine if someone is good or not. To go back to your stats argument, Haslem is averaging more points and rebounds per game than Perkins. He is more mobile and more of a pick & pop threat than Perkins. My point was, they cancel each other out on both ends. Perkins is a better interior defender, but that is wasted when there is nobody on the interior to defend!
You're trying to argue about how good Durant is at rebounding, right? You either get the rebound or you don't. It doesn't matter how or why - there's only two possible outcomes. I don't think you could design a better scenario for statistics to tell the whole story.