I think the series is going to come down to how well the Thunder shoot the 15-18 foot jumper, especially Westbrook. When they're hitting that shot they are just about unbeatable. When it isn't falling, they can go long stretches without scoring. I think OKC can give Miami trouble defensively because of their shot blocking. Wade and Lebron score most of their points by driving into the lane. If the outside shooters play like the did against Indiana, it could be a long series. Also, Durant draws a lot of fouls, so that might affect how much time lebron spends guarding him.
Apologies for the self-reply, but this breakout of the shooting heat maps for the Heat/Thunder is pretty cool. <a class="postlink" href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/11/sports/basketball/nba-shot-analysis.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012 ... lysis.html</a> Harden's is interesting; It's all 3's and lay-ups. Both teams are more effective from the right corner than the left. The Heat take a lot of shots concentrated around the 45 degree angle areas.
My thoughts after the first 11 minutes of the game: OKC is good, but their defense is NOT good enough to win the whole thing.
Feeling better about their defense right now? What I've noticed watching the Heat (rounds 1 and 2, didn't really see the Boston series) is that they tend to let teams hang around. Against NY and Indiana they got away with it because neither team is incredibly consistent on offense but I think in this series the games will be close for most of it with OKC looking like they're barely hanging on at some points but will then go on big runs to put away Miami.
Random question: This is my first time watching the Finals on something that wasn't The People's Channel(Chinese broadcast. Made last years Finals very interesting) or some equivalent in many years. Is there usually that much hoopla beforehand(pre-game, the "Legends" thing, a couple of "countdowns" etc.)? Maybe its because I haven't had cable in forever but I remember the Finals back in the day(here I go acting like I'm old) had something of a brief recap of how the two teams got there, along with a short montage of champions past and that was it. At least it wasn't like the Super Bowl or something. I had no idea that their pre game was more or less THE ENTIRE DAY until this year.
I agree. I dont know if its coaching or if the Big 3 try to get the others involved early and then shrink the offense as the game goes on. I will live with Westbrook shooting from the outside all day long. I would play him like Rondo. If you give Durant an inch, he makes you pay. Lebron needed to take control of that game in the 2nd half. Too much Wade fumbling around at the top of the key. As much as it pains me to say, I dont want to see Mike Miller play 1 more minute for the Heat ever. Play James Jones or somebody else.
The story of the game, in my opinion, was poor defensive attentiveness. Both teams were struggling to get back and find their man with the extensive cross-guarding, and were doing a poor part of switching. In the first half, it was on the part of the Thunder. If you don't cover them, OF COURSE Chalmers and Battier will hit open threes. They're shooters, they're unguarded, it's going to happen. In the second half, Chalmers and Wade were doing a very poor job of getting back on defense, and hence Russell Westbrook was absolutely wreaking havoc on the Heat. If you don't get back, other people have to cover your ass, and then Kevin Durant magically ends up open. You shift, and all of a sudden no one is guarding Nick Collison. Overall, on both sides, too many shots were not well-guarded. This is two series in a row where Miami's attentiveness of defense has been wanting. That's very surprising given how they typically play, and needs to be fixed. I do like that this series means that more people will be able to see Collison. He's quietly been one of the better role players in the league for several years now, but does so in ways that don't tend to draw much attention. Good defense, passes well, gets charges, hits the shots he's given. No one quite knows why, but for some reason people play much better when Collison is on the court, as he has some of the best +/- numbers in the league.
I didn't see most of the game, I had a girl over, but I was watching GameCast on my phone. How impactful was that Thabo switch onto LeBron? I know he scored 7 points, but did the Heat not adjust to that change? Did Dwyane look injured or active? Also Gator, since you're balls deep into the Heat, what the hell went wrong with James Jones? Why isn't he involved more? I remember last year other teams were slightly scared of him being on the floor due to his 3s.
Wade has to be injured. He spent way too much time fucking around with the ball at the top of the key. Jones had a migraine and was unavailable. The Heat need to foul more. They need to knock Westbrook and Durant down more on those drives to the basket. Battier covered Durant most of the game and had 1 foul. Gotta do more than that.
Chalmers looked like he could be an X factor last night until the end where him and Fisher were beating the piss out of each other. I don't remember seeing Perkins or Ibaka on the floor in the fourth quarter, which had a lot to do with the easy 3's drying up.
They didnt need Perkins or Ibaka because the Heat stopped driving the lane. Excellent adjustment by Brooks and another failed in game move by Spoelstra.
I'm a dumbass, I thought the ending margin was 5-6 for some reason. This isn't all that surprising afterall. Carry on...
Anyway, single game +/- is in my opinion one of the most useless stats you can find. Over the course of a season it could say a lot (more so when used for pairings of players) but in one game for one player it's essentially meaningless)
Here is the full audio; David Stern is a master talker; verbally dueling him is usually a bad idea. What I was surprised is how poorly Jim Rome came off, especially for a guy who has been doing this for over two decades. He sounded like a complete tool. On the one hand, Rome asked a serious question about the league being fixed, but he wouldn't actually commit, and later admitted he didn't think the allegation had any merit. Then, after accusing Stern of severe corruption and receiving an even-keeled, calm response by Stern (in terms of how his voice sounded), Rome claims to be "greatly offended" because Stern said he made a career out of "cheap thrills"?! Really?! How hypocritical is that? You can dish out, but when someone returns it in a much smaller dose, you can't handle it? Probably because it's an accurate summary of Rome's career, by the way.
Jim Rome is a jackass. In addition to the Jim Everett incident, watching parts of his show over the years he comes off condescending and self righteous. I can't think of any specific examples because I stopped listening to anything he said/watching his show a few years back but his "Final Burn" section of his show was usually spent taking cheap shots. In regards to the fixing of the drafts and games that the NBA is accused of regularly, I find it hard to believe but not altogether impossible. In this day of 24 hour news reporting and with so many people looking to break this story unless David Stern is doing this on his own I feel like evidence would have come out already about it. Not saying it's impossible, just unlikely.
I have no clue about whether the most recent draft was fixed. My guess would be no, but I honestly don't know. However, I do feel there are strong indications, based on multiple evidence, that the 2002 Kings-Lakers Game 6 was fixed, the 2001 Blazers-Lakers series was fixed, the 2006 Miami-Dallas Finals had fixes, and that the Knicks winning the first overall pick to draft Patrick Ewing instead of the Clippers was very fishy. I'm also an economist and all of these decisions made great sense economically, with the league profiting by tens of millions of dollars in all four instances. That being said, what the hell are you going to get out of asking Stern about the most recent draft? Unless you have a real smoking gun or inside sources, what's the damn point? Stern will deny it, and point out (very logically and correctly) that the same argument could be made for Charlotte or New Jersey, and that there were multiple witnesses and impartial observers to keep any malfeasance from occurring. Stern was exactly right. It's a "cheap thrill". Either you have serious evidence to back up a serious accusation, or you don't, and kindly shut the fuck up.
I've seen some of the videos of the games, because I was pretty young when those series were going on. I know there is the video evidence that there were some (a lot) of questionable (terrible) calls during those series but the evidence I mean is of correspondence coming down from the commissioner's office to the referees saying to extend series or to help the Lakers/Heat win. I'm not saying it isn't possible or didn't happen just that it seems hard to believe that ten years later no one involved has spoken up. Motive and I guess what could be considered circumstantial evidence are there but no hard evidence of the commissioner's office actually making these decisions.