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The Association 2012

Discussion in 'Sports Board' started by Parker, Dec 25, 2011.

  1. KIMaster

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    Luckily, in game 3, he only took 18 shots. I think the Thunder are fine. A few more breaks go their way, and they're up 3-0. Miami is playing by far their best ball of the year, and have a nominal 2-1 lead. I still give the Thunder a slight edge to win the series.
     
  2. Clutch

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    Honestly, OKC had no business being in that game with how many fuck-ups they had in the 4th quarter.
     
  3. Nom Chompsky

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    I don't think there's any way the Thunder should be favorites to win this series any more.
     
  4. KIMaster

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    Meh. They were down 0-2 to the Spurs when San Antonio seemed unstoppable and there were rumblings about them being an all-time great team. A 1-2 deficit is really not that major, especially when the games are so close and didn't reveal to us anything we didn't already know.

    Yeah, if they lose game 4, a 1-3 hole is huge and Miami has a tremendous advantage. But if the Thunder come back and win, it's 2-2 and they're back in the driver's seat...

    I would say it's about even, with a slight edge to the Thunder based on what I have seen.
     
  5. Nom Chompsky

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    Regardless of whether the Thunder are playing better, the fact is, Miami has to win 2 games and the Thunder have to win 3. Sure, if they win game 4 they'll be favorites going forward, but Miami is at best going to be a slight underdog in game 4.

    Let me put it this way: would you take an even-money bet on the Thunder to win the championship?
     
  6. dieformetal

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    I probably would, actually. None of these games have been blowouts and the Thunder have come back from worse. Also, weren't the Mavs in a 2-1 deficit this time last year? Literally every expert was saying it would take a miracle for the Mavs to win it, and look what happened.
     
  7. KIMaster

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    Which is why I don't have the Thunder as significant favorites. Right now, down 1-2, I have them as roughly even, perhaps tiny favorites. (Let's say 51%) At 2-2, I would have the Thunder with a clear advantage. (65%, for instance)

    Absolutely.
     
  8. ssycko

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    As long as all OKC is doing during practice today is shooting free throws, then sure.
     
  9. Gator

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    I heard they are working on their defense almost exclusively.

    They are practicing on not fouling 3pt shooters and teaching Durant to run away from where ever the ball is passed.

    I have never seen anybody get off quality shots with less space than Durant. I used to think Dirk was bad. You give that skinny bastard 1" and he can get a good shot off. If he didn't weigh 135# and could actually post somebody up, he would be almost unstoppable.

    I am still waiting for somebody to actually lay a hard playoff foul on Durant. I think that might throw him off his game a little bit. Same thing on Lebron. I keep waiting for Perkins or Ibaka to knock him down, but it doesn't happen.
     
  10. KIMaster

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    Durant is already unstoppable, and it's largely a function of his skinny frame. The dumbest fucking thing in the world would be for him to pack on extra muscle on his frame. It would seriously damage his effectiveness.
     
  11. Gator

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    I disagree. Watch when Lebron or Battier tries to front Durant in the post. They push him around like he wasnt even there. He doesnt need to pack on muscle, but he could get stronger. He gets shots off in the post because of his long arms and quick release, not his position.

    Which reminds me...watch the first quarter of last nights game again when Lebron pushes Durant (whom I was lead to believe is a "good rebounder") out of the way for 4 or 5 offensive rebounds.

    A team that shoots under 20% from outside the paint should not win a Finals game. Then again, why shoot from outside the paint when you dont have to?
     
  12. Nom Chompsky

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    I think this would be lighting money on fire.

    There's no way the Thunder are 61-39 favorites over the Heat on a neutral court, which is basically what you're saying if you'd take them in this series.

    (I ran some quick and dirty numbers -- I ignored home court advantage, because I don't know that there's any proof that OKC's is better than Miami's, so basically all I did was calculate how much of an edge OKC would need to be favored to win at least 3 out of 4 games. I know in thing like this, order matters, but I'm pretty sure order favors the Heat anyway.)

    tl;dr version: You have to be significantly better than a team to be favored to go 3-1 against them.
     
  13. Parker

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    Watching every minute of that game I'm going to say that OKC beat themselves more than the Miami Heat locked them down and beat them. WHAT THE FUCK HAPPENED TO JAMES HARDEN? Did he and Pau Gasol have some switcheroo effect? Did Kobe engineer some evil scheme because he's still bitter they lost to OKC? Where is the Black Spartan? I mean I know there have been rumors of Lil'Wayne taking his girl Trina out in Miami and what not but come the fuck on dude, hit some shots.

    Also, we got a dusting of Bad RW in those last few minutes.
     
  14. Gator

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    The Heat have outplayed the Thunder except for the 2nd half of game# 1. They are going to hit some ridiculous shots, you just have to weather it and hope they take some bad ones too.

    You know its bad when Durant goes to the bench with foul trouble, they have the lead, and Brooks sits Westbrook to try and hold the lead.

    Harden is just off. The Finals is a whole new ballgame. I know its cliche, but the Heat learned a lot from last year against the Mavs. You dont see them get too excited on the court. And they sure as shit are not mocking the Thunder like they did the Mavs.
     
  15. KIMaster

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    Yep, I cracked the numbers and would need to believe that the Thunder are between 61 and 62% at winning each game (not taking into account the court) in order to take the bet.

    Luckily, I do in fact believe this. We'll see soon whether that is insane or not...
     
  16. Parker

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    On one play Durant shot over Wade and walked away saying "You're too small" but in a joking and fun, we're playing streetball manner. There is a rumor floating around that he said "Cookies" right before he made that 3 in James' face.

    And I feel like "Outplayed" should result in games with point differentials greater than 5 points which wasn't the case in Game 3. If Scott Brooks doesn't take Westbrook out, and the best free throw team doesn't start shooting them backwards over their heads, then its a Thunder win.
     
  17. Flat_Rate

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    I only caught the last minute of the game, but why the fuck did this happen? Huge misstep by Brooks.
     
  18. Parker

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    There are too RWs, that play basketball.

    There is Rondo RW aka "Good RW" who drives to the rim by finding the sweetest fucking lanes, finishing it himself and/or dishing it off to Durant or a big. Then there is bad RW who jacks up shots (bad ones that don't just miss, but badly clang off the back/side of the rim, or don't even touch it) and doesn't look for Durant or anyone else. Usually 3s or JUST inside the 3 point line, with 18+seconds on the clock and the other teams D is all the way there. Turns over the ball like its his job and just gets REALLY hyper about everything.

    Scotty oddly was concerned about bad RW coming out even though he was making points and was sitting Durant, so he sat him to calm him down. Usually Harden comes in and plays the PERFECT combo guard and they either gain or at least sustain. Harden shit the bed, RW was actually on a good roll, and got thrown off when he was taken out, and when he came back in, he was slowly reverted to bad RW.

    Sorry if this looks bad or doesn't make perfect sense, typing off my BB.
     
  19. Gator

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    Wade said Durant told him he was too small and his response was "I know!".

    You know the Heat won by 6, right? And if it wasnt for Wades turnover, they spread might have been even more.

    Brooks fucked up by taking Westbrook and Durant out at the same time and assuming Harden could handle the offense. He couldn't.

    We will see who makes adjustments for Game 4. Must win for OKC.
     
  20. dieformetal

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    I've noticed that since I'm watching announcers/commentators in English for the first time in forever, I've forgotten how annoying they could be. Specifically, when they say "this is a crucial game (insert game number here) for team A!" No fucking shit. Every playoff game in every sport is "crucial." No team in any sport can just throw a game away, the very thought is ludicrous. I'm just trying to imagine Lebron and Wade having a press conference tomorrow afternoon and saying something like "You know, since this game isn't crucial for us, we're just going to take the day off." Fucking hacks.