Weekend Sober Thread: Shit's Gettin' Real in Egypt

Define 'all-out war'. Are more people going to die? Probably. Will there be a nationwide escalation of violence on a grand scale? I'd say probably not. It won't come to that. Protesters are fighting with sticks, swords and stones. Security forces have automatic weapons and tear gas. If you want to call a slaughter like that 'war', it would be the most lopsided one in history.

 

All at war would require the military to openly revolt, in which case they'd be fighting with the state police force.

 

Don't be ridiculous. It can't be the Muslim Brotherhood. They renounced violence years ago.

 

The army said they would not fire on citizens.

(my commentary)
I find it real convenient that "protesters" are now attacking the peaceful demo, something which puts the army in a stalemate situation. If policemen just started shooting , the army would probably do something. But getting a few thousand people out of jails, telling them to " do the bawss a favor", giving them weapons and letting them go wild on peaceful protesters is quite the bastardy move, that's for sure. Since they are technically "citizen".

Then, because "the protests aren't peaceful anymore" the powers that be can justify anything they want. I suppose the two-three days of curfews/no internet made it real easy to hide their plans, until they set it in motion today.
(/end commentary)

 

I think the people of Egypt are pretty much fucked no matter what they do. Even if Mubarak leaves today, whomever they put in charge is probably going to maintain the same type of government in one form or another, for a while. They might get some reforms and it might get a little better, but on the whole, either nothing much will change, kind of like here in the U.S. where we just exchange one idiot for another and everything pretty much stays the same, or they will wind up with internal power struggles and the Muslim Brotherhood co-opting "free elections" and getting their own people in.

 

The live camera on Tahrir square looks like there are only a few hundred people. I'm sure there's more on nearby streets, but what happened to the million people from yesterday? Did they just peace out?

 

Well this is interesting.

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.youtube.com/citizentube?feature=ticker" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.youtube.com/citizentube?feature=ticker</a>

Looks like a good way to get a ton of people aware and do a ton of self-promoting. Not bad.

 

Behind what? The violence in Egypt? That was provoked by "pro-Mubarak" protesters, often with police identification, armed with rocks and Molotov cocktails, and given a free rein by the military (which is a little bit odd). Pretty much all the reports I've read are saying that these guys instigated the violence, not anti-government protesters.*

As I read that article, all the MB spokesman is calling for is more free and transparent government, and protesting that the newly appointed official does not have democratic interests at heart. They don't even want the king gone (he's actually quite a liberal guy, considering), they just want better governance. Obviously they have a religious platform as well (see the no casinos thing) but that's not the main focus, and Islam does not automatically equal violence.

I'm not sure where you're getting a violent intent from that. Unless you're just scared of the name.


*http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12345656

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/anderson-cooper-attacked-mob-egypt-95628

This is basically my analysis as well, with the added fact that these pro-Mubarak guys seem to be targeting media outlets.** You wonder why (supposed) protesters would want less publicity instead of more... and wonder if maybe these guys aren't what they claim to be.

The other option is that these are just ordinary citizens tired of a revolt disrupting their lives. It's bad for tourism, bad for business, etc. But considering the level of organization (being bussed into Tahrir with no security checks from the army, the horses and camels, etc.) and the level/type of violence--Molotovs, whips, rocks--in what have been peaceful protests so far, I have to dispute that claim.

You've got to love the fact that Mubarak is apparently encouraging, organizing and hiring thugs to cause chaos and make the protests look bad, when most news outlets have already cottoned on to the fact that they're his guys***... and this is all to make himself look better in comparison.

I'll tell you what scares me:

Shit is real.



**http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/02/egypt.journalists.attacked/index.html?hpt=C1
AJE Live Feed, Feb. 2:

***http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/02/egypt.pro.mubarak/index.html

 

There are reports now that the Mubarak side is erecting barricades around the square, possibly to prevent escape from the square if they're planning for another assault.

As for why the military didn't break up the melee, the reports are that there are just a few armored vehicles, and not many more soldiers than their crews. Sounds like there was more military before, but they've withdrawn, though it's not clear why. They may also be under orders to not stop the attacks, which would make sense if the pro-Mubarak side is largely state police. There were some reports that attackers were captured, handed over to the military, but then spotted again in the crowd later.

The military is also telling the protesters to leave, which makes sense if they know that the attackers are state police.

 

Rumor on Twitter is that there will be an attack in the early morning, so probably around 11pm Eastern time.

 

Anyone know what an Egyptian police ID looks like?

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/24271114@N08/5411317329/in/set-72157625838724811/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.flickr.com/photos/24271114@N ... 838724811/</a>

 

My friend just posted up a bunch of pictures that he took in Cairo. This is one:



Riot police abandon their gear to become looters:

 

AJE Web producer reports: A line of tanks in front of the national museum, facing the Tahrir Square

Also heard that the Mubarak camp has knocked out a street lamp at their location.

I hope the revolutionaries are able to stand up to whatever is coming their way.

 

Just a thought on strategy here.

The government has turned on the internet and cell phones, which I think most people are taking as a positive sign. The obvious interpretation is that Mubarak has seen that the protesters are still able to communicate, so the comm black out doesn't do a lot of good, but does draw a lot of international condemnation. Turning the comm back on might get him a few points.

But, there's a more sinister possibility. While the protesters were able to respond to the communications blackout, it was still disruptive. It takes time to get your alternative methods on place. If he gets the protesters relying back on normal communication, it's possible to cause another disruption by cutting it again.

 

Tanks are in motion, lots of gunfire. So far seems like they're firing into the air, but Reuters reports one killed, several injured.

If you're not watching, now's the time to tune in. <a class="postlink" href="http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/2007829161423657345.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/ ... 57345.html</a>

 

CNN now reporting "lost of gunfire" and "pro-mubarak supporters said 'if they come, shout 'jihad, jihad'"

The whole thing of mubarak paying the "pro-mubarak protesters" is looking more and more like it's about 85% truth. This is not going to reflect well on the world stage. Fortunately, there aren't many people in tahrir (sorry about the spelling... everywhere) square right now, but tomorrow may be nasty. The military really isn't doing anything right now, and when/if they pick a side.... well, look out.

 

The AJE anchor just said that there are women and children in the square right now as well as older people.

I just tuned back in, so I don't know where that information is coming from, but holy hell who takes their kid to something like this?

 

Yesterday the protest was compared to a music festival. A very jovial, happy atmosphere, no violence. Easy to understand that you might want your kid to experience that.

But after the shit this morning, if I had a kid, it's peace out time. But, it's hard to say when it's been safe to leave, or if these people have transportation home (are the trains still off line?).

And, Egypt has shitty parents just like the US. We gave kids drums and fifes in the Revolution and told them to march alongside the army.