Weekend Sober Thread: Shit's Gettin' Real in Egypt

Except that most of us, rather than viewing this as entertainment, are seriously concerned about these people and the implications of what's going on. This isn't Jersey fucking Shore.

 

If there were any sign that the Muslim Brotherhood has any real sway over the people of Egypt, this might be a concern. They haven't taken over leadership of the protests, their slogans aren't appearing in the square, and there appears to be a lot of Christians fighting to get rid of Mubarak who probably wouldn't be happy with the brotherhood taking over.

Odds are more Egyptians will die in the revolution than Israelis who will be killed by Egyptians in the next 5 years.

 

If something does happen tomorrow, it is expected to get started after the morning prayers. Sunrise is at 6:44 local time, which I believe is 11:44pm tonight, Eastern time.

 

Yep. I'm not surprised everybody has gotten wrapped around the axle about the whole Muslim Brotherhood thing, but that just goes to show that most Americans a) don't understand the Middle Eastern cultural and political relationships and b) media fear-mongering.

I've only watched and read Al-Jazeera for my news over there, and I have yet to hear a single solitary mention of Hamas or any sort of Islamic undercurrent within the protests.

 

Yeah, I shut off CNN after they referred to it as the "Land of the Pharaohs".

Notice how various state departments have synched their press conference language? With very few exceptions, the mantra seems to be: "The transition must begin immediately." Stern and important-sounding, but yards short of saying "Mubarak needs to leave the country without further delay." It's like they sent out a joint memo.

To: U.S. Department of State
Cc: Europe, Ban Ki Moon
Re: Our stance on Egypt

To Whom It May Concern:

C.Y.A.

Regards,

Your Communications Aides

 

Does anyone know when/if we're gonna get live video feeds back?

It's gonna suck if shit hits the fan, there's no footage, and ultimately they can't real-time report on it.

 

From this point on, I wouldn't count any kind of live video feed from Cairo. A lot of reporters caught serious beatings today, and if things escalate tomorrow, they'll have to weigh how much they enjoy being alive before venturing into the streets with cameras.

Going forward, Twitter is our friend.

 

Al Jazeera had a live feed for a little while maybe half an hour ago, but they didn't run it for long. It was down the road from the square. You could see the square, but not in detail.

If they're smart, they're going to lay low until there's something to broadcast. I'd bet the interior ministry is watching and using the video to figure out where cameras are located.

 

White House, Egypt Discusses Plan for Mubarak’s Exit

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/middleeast/04diplomacy.html?_r=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world ... .html?_r=1</a>

 

You know, this is one thing that hasn't been mentioned. It wasn't that long ago that twitter was a joke among serious people, something used by cable news shows to gather opinions when it's a slow news day, and otherwise used to broadcast mundane nonsense by celebrities and normal folk alike. And all of a sudden, it's become something not only useful, but practically vital to an incredibly important event.

If you had told people when twitter first came out that it would be the lifeblood of a political revolution in two countries, they'd tell you to screw your head back on straight.

 

That's why I said some. Most posts are interesting and thoughtful.

The whole thing comes down to the Egyptian military. They supported Mubarak because he provided stability and prosperity, especialy for the generals and other high ups. The fact that they haven't intervened yet is a sure sign that they're waiting it out.
Waiting for what?

The US. Or whatever other great power will provide funds and stability to the Egyptian military.

This whole uprising is nice and romantic and everything, but realisticaly, it will come down to whoever has the biggest guns behind them.
Mubarak may leave office, hell even ElBaradei might become Great Pharaoh or whatever, but it will all come down to the generals in the military. They have true power in Egypt, but the problem is that their power is hardly sustainable without outside help, and this will be the most important issue in the whole situation.
Mubarak is on the leave, the only reason this is dragging out so long is because the outside funders and the Egyptian military are trying to decide who would be the best option to sustain the status quo or something similar to it.
Any kind of western style democracy in Egypt is unrealistic. The best case scenario is something similar to Turkey which is the closest thing you have to western democracy in the Middle East (if you disregard the blatant Kurd related civil rights violations).

Would it be great if the smart, the educated and the pragmatic took power in Egypt?
Hell yes, but we all know the world doesn't really work like that.

 

Ruffled up by the secret police of a country with a reputation for imprisonment and torture of political opponents.

 

Aha, Kenneth Cole posted on Twitter: "Millions are in uproar in Cairo. Rumor is they heard our Spring collection is now available online."

I love that people who should clearly have PR people monitoring everything they say on the internet don't. Frankly, I think that's hilarious, and I'm sure whoever posted that did too. But it's amazing that so many people with brands/images to represent don't think about the consequences of transmitting that humor to the public.

 

The uprising isn't relevant because it's expected to bring perfect 'Western democracy' to Egypt (by the way, your flippant dismissal of Egyptian democracy as 'unrealistic' smacks of exceptionalism) but because it has revealed the process you described above to be unsustainable in the long term. Romanticism aside, and however briefly these protests may exist, this incident proves that Middle Eastern dictatorships are extremely vulnerable to mass dissent, a fact we've been loathe to admit in recent years, much to our present detriment.

So, yes, Egypt (with our blessing) may install another military overseer to quiet the streets of Cairo for months or years to come, but what should now be understood is that it is only a matter of time before this happens again. And again. And again. And again, until we finally get the picture: these people are not chess pieces, and treating them as such is dangerous, costly, and ultimately counterproductive to the real goal of Middle Eastern diplomacy: a quiet region where everyone can make their money in peace.

That's why we're paying attention. Not because we're romantics. We're waiting to see what, if anything, is possible in a situation like this, and what might be learned in the process.

 

Video that's on reddit right now.



That shit is crazy.

 

That was fucked up. But, what evidence is there that this was a diplomat's car?

 

Multiple reports on Twitter that Muslim Brotherhood is announcing via speakers/megaphones in Tahrir that they will not seek power in the new government.

Start working on that next stereotype.